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Post by maddogchief on Jan 4, 2023 8:56:34 GMT -6
the gem and gfs show the same. the gfs is a bit weaker but the gem looks very nice.   From what I can tell is that the OP models aren’t in agreement with their own teleconnection forecasts. The MJO and the AO would argue for colder temps across the Midwest. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2023 9:17:45 GMT -6
We better be rooting for this SSW event because models look pretty bleak through D15...the pacific pattern is completely dominating and shutting off the cold air tap for the foreseeable future. I get the feeling that by late month or early February we're going to see another severe cold outbreak and maybe an inch or two of snow if we're lucky, lol.
The GFS has the strat vortex highly stretched and weakened by the end of it's run, so that's encouraging for the back half of the winter. But it looks like slim pickins until that starts to reflect in the tropospheric pattern(and hopefully, it does).
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2023 9:33:23 GMT -6
we'll just have to live vicariously through Mammoth Lakes CA
TodaySnow, mainly before 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Windy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
TonightSnow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 27. Windy, with a south wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.
ThursdaySnow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.
Thursday NightSnow likely, mainly before 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
FridayMostly sunny, with a high near 33. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Friday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 17. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
SaturdayA 30 percent chance of snow after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday NightSnow likely, mainly after 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
SundaySnow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31.
Sunday NightA chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.
MondaySnow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
Monday NightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 27.
TuesdaySnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 35.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2023 10:45:46 GMT -6
The 12z Icon, gfs, and ggem all show cold returning by next week at this time. This would be closer to average or slightly below average, not extreme cold.
Then, we have to see if one of the fast moving waves produces.
East coast folks are excited about the 12th timeframe. Hopefully, we steal it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2023 11:14:58 GMT -6
It looks like any cold intrusion would be very short-lived to me but there is a brief amplification of an upstream ridge around then that could dislodge a bit of Canadian airmass.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2023 11:23:43 GMT -6
Any cold here will be quick and passing. CA will continue to try to have ARKstorm 2.0
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 4, 2023 11:48:11 GMT -6
 There's a 238" in there somewhere |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2023 11:55:37 GMT -6
MTW road trip out to the Sierra Nevada’s sounds good
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2023 12:49:31 GMT -6
The 12z euro joins the party with a 1046 mb high just a bit north of the Great Lakes and a storm brewing in the Plains.
I’m not saying we are going into a cold pattern again yet.
I’m saying the 12th-15th is the next period of interest for a winter storm across the Midwest and/or East Coast.
The orientation of the blocking should prevent a cutter and produce a northwest to southeast orientation.
I would be more worried about being missed to the south during that timeframe.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2023 16:21:16 GMT -6
This weekend still has potential for some wintry weather across the N counties...models are trending a bit cooler with each run. Hard to say what P-type would be favored...surface temps are marginal so icing seems unlikely but wet snow is possible if freezing levels drop a bit more. Looks like a nuisance event either way and a cold rain is still favored currently. Might see a few flurries or light SNSH tomorrow as the mid-level low glances us.
Next week may have some potential but it's far from a good setup from what I've looked at. Storms that come ashore in CA rarely turn out well for us.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 4, 2023 16:41:35 GMT -6
I can already tell the daylight is getting longer now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2023 18:42:08 GMT -6
lol
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 4, 2023 22:02:19 GMT -6
The 12z euro joins the party with a 1046 mb high just a bit north of the Great Lakes and a storm brewing in the Plains. I’m not saying we are going into a cold pattern again yet. I’m saying the 12th-15th is the next period of interest for a winter storm across the Midwest and/or East Coast. The orientation of the blocking should prevent a cutter and produce a northwest to southeast orientation. I would be more worried about being missed to the south during that timeframe. Regardless, it’s more wintry looking than present. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2023 23:48:20 GMT -6
The 12z euro joins the party with a 1046 mb high just a bit north of the Great Lakes and a storm brewing in the Plains. I’m not saying we are going into a cold pattern again yet. I’m saying the 12th-15th is the next period of interest for a winter storm across the Midwest and/or East Coast. The orientation of the blocking should prevent a cutter and produce a northwest to southeast orientation. I would be more worried about being missed to the south during that timeframe. Regardless, it’s more wintry looking than present. Well yeah, hard to be 65 degrees every day in January. It looks like a brief stretch in the PV will give the region a shot at a storm in the 12th-15th range. Then, a SSW event looks to take place heading into the end of January which would probably bring more 60 degree days for a couple weeks before we potentially see an extended run of winter weather through most of February. Personally, I would have preferred a more significant PV stretch event with quicker impacts, but I’ll probably just try to enjoy the warm weather and hope the potential SSW delivers in February. Not worth getting this frustrated over it. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 5, 2023 9:46:32 GMT -6
I need some help with a question and these days just not sure 'how to ask' it. I know several on here have made comments/remarks WRT JB. I just want a correct answer. I have my preconceived knowledge of this from another Met from growing up in CA and living through the 82-83 El Nino out there when I first heard the term. I realize that was 40 years ago and 'refinements' could have been made to the 'official' definition. I have seen 'Pineapple Express' plastered everywhere lately. JB just posted a graphic of a GFS Simulated WV from last nights 0z 0hr initialization and his take on it. I went back 48hrs on that and toggled through and I see a storm, like he is saying' bringing it's moisture with it and only 'tapping' (my words) moisture from a direct link from Hawaii for a short time as the front pushes through. If this is wrong can someone explain to me why.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 5, 2023 10:29:26 GMT -6
It's a textbook atmospheric river pattern whether or not there is a direct link to HI...the Pacific is pretty big and wet, lol.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 5, 2023 10:36:47 GMT -6
Brtn might be right on some light snow along and northwest of I70 on Saturday night most models now show some light accumulation with borderline temps , possible grassy accumulation if it does end up snowing
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 5, 2023 10:52:36 GMT -6
Brtn might be right on some light snow along and northwest of I70 on Saturday night most models now show some light accumulation with borderline temps , possible grassy accumulation if it does end up snowing Pretty janky setup but it might just squeeze out several flakes, lol. Next week looks pretty janky too...borderline airmass with a questionable track. C'mon, February! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2023 10:55:13 GMT -6
Brtn might be right on some light snow along and northwest of I70 on Saturday night most models now show some light accumulation with borderline temps , possible grassy accumulation if it does end up snowing Pretty janky setup but it might just squeeze out several flakes, lol. Next week looks pretty janky too...borderline airmass with a questionable track. C'mon, February! Late week next week has some serious moisture and looks to be a slow mover. Wherever the “cold enough” air meets that storm, some prolific snow could fall. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 5, 2023 10:58:31 GMT -6
It's crazy how much further north the GFS is...by Sunday AM the low is 300-400miles north of the EC and it has zero support including the NAM. After what I've seen this winter so far, this version of the GFS is pretty awful.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 5, 2023 11:02:34 GMT -6
Pretty janky setup but it might just squeeze out several flakes, lol. Next week looks pretty janky too...borderline airmass with a questionable track. C'mon, February! Late week next week has some serious moisture and looks to be a slow mover. Wherever the “cold enough” air meets that storm, some prolific snow could fall. It's also nosing into crushing confluence and taking on positive tilt with time. Guess we'll see, but it's far from a favorable setup, IMO. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 5, 2023 11:17:22 GMT -6
next weekend def looks like an eastern storm
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Post by amstilost on Jan 5, 2023 11:41:18 GMT -6
It's a textbook atmospheric river pattern whether or not there is a direct link to HI...the Pacific is pretty big and wet, lol. Thanks, I guess I'm just getting caught up in the phrases 'Pineapple Express' vs. 'Atmospheric River'. I was always under the notion that the 'Pineapple Express' is an 'Atmospheric River' but with origins from the tropics, possibly more Precipitable Water Content than an Atmospheric River' coming straight across from Japan over the Northern Pacific, being cooler with less Precipitable Water Content. I'm not sure if this is semantics, same meaning different words or if there is an actual difference in the terms. I know the term 'Fire Hose' is also used but I think this equates more with the temperature streaming in vs. Precipitabl Water Content. Maybe my OCD has been tripped.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 5, 2023 11:51:49 GMT -6
from the farmer's almanac:
The name is a slang term for one specific type of atmospheric river—a moving band of concentrated moisture in the Earth’s atmosphere. A Pineapple Express is, more specifically, an atmospheric river that travels from Hawaii to the Western U.S.
Atmospheric rivers transport large amounts of water vapor along flowing currents of air. They are generally a few thousand miles long and around a hundred miles wide. And though they consist of water vapor—water in its gaseous, rather than liquid, form—a single atmospheric river can carry more water than the Amazon River, the Earth’s largest river, making its name apropos.
wikipedia:
A Pineapple Express is an example of an atmospheric river, which is a more general term for such relatively narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport at mid-latitudes around the world.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 5, 2023 12:02:06 GMT -6
SSTs are running warm across the bulk of the Pacific basin this winter which is a contributing factor for the relentless storms along the coast. Like I said earlier, the pattern hardly resembles a typical La Nina...and the SOI continues to rise. The weakening that was expected this winter hasn't shown it's cards yet. And that's one factor that's leading to this mild spell, IMO.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 5, 2023 12:05:58 GMT -6
from the farmer's almanac: The name is a slang term for one specific type of atmospheric river—a moving band of concentrated moisture in the Earth’s atmosphere. A Pineapple Express is, more specifically, an atmospheric river that travels from Hawaii to the Western U.S. Atmospheric rivers transport large amounts of water vapor along flowing currents of air. They are generally a few thousand miles long and around a hundred miles wide. And though they consist of water vapor—water in its gaseous, rather than liquid, form—a single atmospheric river can carry more water than the Amazon River, the Earth’s largest river, making its name apropos. wikipedia: A Pineapple Express is an example of an atmospheric river, which is a more general term for such relatively narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport at mid-latitudes around the world. Thanks Snowman, That is what I was trying to figure out. I tried to go back through NARR reanalysis to pinpoint some of the storms in the 82-83 El Nino but was having a hard time pinpointing the dates without going through that whole winter day by day. I gave up with that. So, 'technically' this event is an Atmospheric River' but not a 'Pineapple Express'. I know the people in 82-83 that were affected catastrophically or right now rhat are being affected by this event don't care, but I think it is important to distinguish the two separately because of the more PW content available with a tropical connection. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2023 13:05:46 GMT -6
Euro trying to print out some accumulating snowfall around here this weekend with our little system  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 5, 2023 13:14:49 GMT -6
4" IMBY...LOCK IT IN
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2023 13:29:40 GMT -6
from the farmer's almanac: The name is a slang term for one specific type of atmospheric river—a moving band of concentrated moisture in the Earth’s atmosphere. A Pineapple Express is, more specifically, an atmospheric river that travels from Hawaii to the Western U.S. Atmospheric rivers transport large amounts of water vapor along flowing currents of air. They are generally a few thousand miles long and around a hundred miles wide. And though they consist of water vapor—water in its gaseous, rather than liquid, form—a single atmospheric river can carry more water than the Amazon River, the Earth’s largest river, making its name apropos. wikipedia: A Pineapple Express is an example of an atmospheric river, which is a more general term for such relatively narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport at mid-latitudes around the world. Thanks Snowman, That is what I was trying to figure out. I tried to go back through NARR reanalysis to pinpoint some of the storms in the 82-83 El Nino but was having a hard time pinpointing the dates without going through that whole winter day by day. I gave up with that. So, 'technically' this event is an Atmospheric River' but not a 'Pineapple Express'. I know the people in 82-83 that were affected catastrophically or right now rhat are being affected by this event don't care, but I think it is important to distinguish the two separately because of the more PW content available with a tropical connection. This feels like an “all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares” situation |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 5, 2023 20:35:10 GMT -6
I went with rain and wet snow mixed north of Saint Louis for Saturday and included some token flurries for the metro with the secondary little pocket of energy dropping in from the North Sunday. Temperatures will be very marginal both days, so it will be hard to get anything to stick.
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