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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 5, 2023 21:47:13 GMT -6
Today's CFS (I don't check it too often, but I think I checked it a week ago and it was the same message), is consistent with what many people are saying. Last week of January and into February is depicted as persistent cold and active. Key message is persistent cold, but not the extreme magnitude of cold that we experienced prior to Christmas based on thickness progs. However, if there's a lot of snow cover, I can definitely see some potential of subzero readings, especially in February. I recall seeing pics of "bookend" woolly worms this past Fall. If this verifies, those woolly worms might know something. We don't need extreme cold for heavy snow, just the right amount of cold. Fingers crossed that I didn't jinx it with this post, it just seems like there's multiple signs pointing to ultimately a winter that might be worth remembering.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 5, 2023 23:44:17 GMT -6
Looks like the west coast is already working on a winter to remember. GFS 384hr has 187" snow @ 20" QPF. THe bulk of that is before 180hr. That is ON TOP OF what they have received so far. Also seen up in BC Canada 287" of snow @ 33" qpf. Again, on top of what they have received. Also, that is using 10/1 ratios. Here is a recent update on the CA storms by Juan Browne, I have linked his channel before. He does a great job on whatever he is reporting on. BlancoLirio |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2023 10:06:59 GMT -6
Ensembles are looking like an absolute roast fest for the next two weeks. I guess this is the price we pay for that wicked cold shot before Christmas. The harder you pull the rubber band one way, the harder it snaps back the other. There are some signs of the cold building back up over Siberia mid-month.   |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2023 10:50:00 GMT -6
yep, as I've said, cold for 4 days, warm for 4 weeks. Pathetic
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2023 10:52:06 GMT -6
The ice box is definitely loading up again...like Chris said, it takes time to reload when you drain it out. It may take a while for a favorable pattern to re-emerge, but it may be worth the wait.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 6, 2023 10:56:04 GMT -6
This is a nice break from winter. I would rather be outside enjoying this.
If we are to get cold again, I hope its only 28 to 32 because that cold snap at christmas was brutal and dangerous. We dont need that again.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 6, 2023 10:57:44 GMT -6
I dont recall the specifics of 1983 and 1989, but i dont think we had just one shot of extreme cold then done. I agree with brtn, and i saw a post from dave murray basically saying winter will ne back. Tail end of january into february. Depending on how active it is, it might take even longer for the storm track to shift enough south to get us snow. We may very well have to endure rain to cold or rain to flurries while things get straightened out in the meantime, even through the remainder of january.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 6, 2023 11:05:39 GMT -6
Extended Short range models RAP and HRRR look pretty good for snow tomorrow night along and north of 70. NAM /EURO/GEM/RGEM have been fairly consistent with the along and north of 70 snow line. The GFS and GEFS is way further north and in northern Mo . The Ukmet was up north as well and now trended south towards the other models. Definitely a lot working against this system but , it might amount to some grassy accumulation for the northern viewing area .
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2023 11:37:29 GMT -6
If we can get some decent snow rates tomorrow night into Sun AM, I could see an inch or so on grassy spots up this way. Models still continue to trend a bit cooler with this little system.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2023 12:46:50 GMT -6
You would think that in the middle of January we could avoid a rainy deformation zone, but the 12z euro spits in our face late next week.
What a joke.
This is why I’m all for November/December snow. No guarantee anything comes later.
That potential SSW best deliver or this will rival 2011/2012 from a snow perspective.
I’ve seen like 3 inches this season lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2023 12:51:45 GMT -6
we get deformation rain here in mid january every year lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2023 13:00:20 GMT -6
we get deformation rain here in mid january every year lol This is true. At least the East Coast probably misses out too. Especially the coastal areas. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 6, 2023 13:03:44 GMT -6
The last few years February is our one month of true winter
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2023 13:06:21 GMT -6
There's just nothing coming through the N stream to get the cold into place for that storm next week. At least sustained onshore flow looks to screw the EC weenies. The Pacific continues to dominate. Ensemble means look better towards the end of their runs though...may be starting to pick up on the PV disruption that's beginning to unfold.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2023 13:22:17 GMT -6
There's just nothing coming through the N stream to get the cold into place for that storm next week. At least sustained onshore flow looks to screw the EC weenies. The Pacific continues to dominate. Ensemble means look better towards the end of their runs though...may be starting to pick up on the PV disruption that's beginning to unfold. Usually, we get about a 2 week lag following a SSW, so probably into February for any tropospheric response. Likely mild before then outside of the little stretch event that originally gave me hope for late next week. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 6, 2023 13:40:18 GMT -6
The last few years February is our one month of true winter Even into March at times. It really seems like our seasonal lag has gotten to be pretty extreme, with winter lagging into March, spring sometimes into early June, and summer blech into late October. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 6, 2023 13:44:15 GMT -6
The last few years February is our one month of true winter Even into March at times. It really seems like our seasonal lag has gotten to be pretty extreme, with winter lagging into March, spring sometimes into early June, and summer blech into late October. I 100 percent agree!! |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 6, 2023 13:44:37 GMT -6
Warmest January on record in STL as far as average temp was in 1933. That was 43.1 F. We could end up coming very close to this.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 6, 2023 14:11:45 GMT -6
Saturday night into Sunday keeps getting interesting-er as we we get closer. 18Z HRRR is nuts with snow, showing a few to several inches north of I-70. While it's almost certainly 'blowing things up', it's worth a watch. Might have some freezing drizzle/light rain issues as well which could be more dangerous depending on surface temperatures especially on bridges and overpasses/sidewalks. A dusting to an inch with possible higher amounts to 2" mainly north of I-70 seems to be a good way to go right now.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 6, 2023 14:22:58 GMT -6
Belleville, I agree with you, I think this system has the potential for a nice little ground covering snow north of I70, definitely more than currently forecast
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 6, 2023 14:32:22 GMT -6
Rainy deformation is one of my favorite Winter weather terms. I wish I'd get to use it more often. I put it right up there with:
January thaw
Flooding
Schmocker rule
Warm southerly flow
Dry air mass (DAM)
Melting layer
Sleet contamination
Record high
Northern trend
Mud
What are your favorite terms?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 6, 2023 14:42:57 GMT -6
"Looks like we dodged a bullet"
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 6, 2023 14:50:37 GMT -6
Forgot everyone's favorite: "Just 2 more weeks!"
or
"2 week-ing ourselves into Spring"
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 6, 2023 14:55:00 GMT -6
The "St. Louis split"?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 6, 2023 14:58:30 GMT -6
Also if you get outside and can see the moon, it is known as a 'Micromoon' as the moon is at apogee or the farthest from Earth in it's 28 day orbit around our planet. So it will appear somewhat less brighter and smaller then most full moons and especially it's opposite the 'Supermoon' when the moon is at it's pedigree or closest to Earth in it's orbit.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 6, 2023 15:14:15 GMT -6
Rainy deformation is one of my favorite Winter weather terms. I wish I'd get to use it more often. I put it right up there with: January thaw Flooding Schmocker rule Warm southerly flow Dry air mass (DAM) Melting layer Sleet contamination Record high Northern trend Mud What are your favorite terms? Roll Tide. I just love that one to death.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 6, 2023 15:17:46 GMT -6
Elevated Warm Layer  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 6, 2023 17:17:13 GMT -6
Cutter
wasted low
Noreaster
Rain to cold
Split flow
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 6, 2023 17:23:32 GMT -6
Rainy deformation is one of my favorite Winter weather terms. I wish I'd get to use it more often. I put it right up there with: January thaw Flooding Schmocker rule Warm southerly flow Dry air mass (DAM) Melting layer Sleet contamination Record high Northern trend Mud What are your favorite terms? Roll Tide. I just love that one to death.
I guess youre not an Alabama fan? |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2023 17:59:48 GMT -6
Roll Tide. I just love that one to death.
I guess youre not an Alabama fan? Hello McFly |
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