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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2023 18:20:37 GMT -6
NWS had "chance drizzle" here Sat PM and no POPs Sunday...interesting. The disco did mention lack of saturation in the DGZ as a possibility. Guess we'll see.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 6, 2023 19:03:24 GMT -6
I thought everyone's favorite was....
Singing in the rain....
Rain to Cold....
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 6, 2023 19:12:28 GMT -6
How about blow torch, which all honesty, I never fully related to because a blowtorch
i guess is 70 to 80 in the winter, however my thoughts of blow torch weather is 105 plus in the summer so I guess its all perspective, however I do seem to enjoy these warmer weather patterns the older I get.
The snow when I was young was fun. Now its more a nuisance and mostly unenoyable unless it is gone the next day.
Im starting to like the warmer climate overall as heat does not hurt near as bad as the cold.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 6, 2023 21:33:38 GMT -6
I absolutely will take mild over cold and dry. I think the HRRRRRRRRR depicts a little bit of sleet for our northerners.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2023 22:26:49 GMT -6
00z gfs gets the storm late next week cranking so it is actually able to draw some cold air in and produce some heavy, wet snow for the northern/eastern viewing area.
More interesting look this run at least.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 7, 2023 0:06:34 GMT -6
I'm not going to waste too much time on this little bugger Saturday... but a sloppy, patchy, slushy dusting may try and build up on cars, some grassy surfaces, decks, tables, etc. with a mix of wet snow and very light rain showers in the 4pm to 2am time frame. Temperatures at the surface will remain above freezing and the ground is warm. Time of day will help a little. I think areas near and north of I-70 might see at least some mood flakes mixed with the light rain and drizzle. Nothing too exciting to see here honestly.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 7, 2023 0:24:57 GMT -6
I'm not going to waste too much time on this little bugger Saturday... but a sloppy, patchy, slushy dusting may try and build up on cars, some grassy surfaces, decks, tables, etc. with a mix of wet snow and very light rain showers in the 4pm to 2am time frame. Temperatures at the surface will remain above freezing and the ground is warm. Time of day will help a little. I think areas near and north of I-70 might see at least some mood flakes mixed with the light rain and drizzle. Nothing too exciting to see here honestly. So you’re saying there is no chance |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2023 7:19:34 GMT -6
NWS now saying localized 2"+ amounts with mesoscale banding are possible N of 70. My point forecast added a token half inch or less...guess we'll see!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2023 8:37:38 GMT -6
12z HRRR actually looks pretty darn good for the N half of the CWA...tracks a weak 850mb low across S MO with decent h85/h7 frontogenesis setting up along or just north of 70 this afternoon and evening. NWS might be onto something if that verifies.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2023 8:41:14 GMT -6
NAMs on the other hand aren't jazzed about it at all...solid "wait and see" situation.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2023 8:47:21 GMT -6
RAP seems to be in support of the HRRR. Maybe we'll get a nice surprise this evening...could be the biggest storm of the season, lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2023 10:09:02 GMT -6
HRRR is showing strong lift centered on the DGZ in that meso band it has north of 70 later today. Temps are pretty borderline, but would be some heavy wet snow if it’s right.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2023 10:32:54 GMT -6
HRRR is showing strong lift centered on the DGZ in that meso band it has north of 70 later today. Temps are pretty borderline, but would be some heavy wet snow if it’s right. Did you notice any CAPE in the soundings? The sim radar looked kinda convective with bubbly stuff along the S edge of the stronger Fgen. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 7, 2023 10:33:03 GMT -6
Bright sunshine the last 2-3 hours but now it looks like the clouds are arriving in Festus
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2023 10:39:18 GMT -6
HRRR is showing strong lift centered on the DGZ in that meso band it has north of 70 later today. Temps are pretty borderline, but would be some heavy wet snow if it’s right. Did you notice any CAPE in the soundings? The sim radar looked kinda convective with bubbly stuff along the S edge of the stronger Fgen. I didn't notice any cape, but the lapse rates through the DGZ are steep (>7c/km)
The lightning index off the HRRR shows it possible for some bolts later today
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 7, 2023 10:47:50 GMT -6
Couple nice Rainers on the gfs the next 10 days. Classic mid January st Louis weather.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 7, 2023 13:10:10 GMT -6
Ah, the closer we get the more and more the models get spartan with the precipitation. Most showing only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of LQPF at this point, even up stream is less than a tenth inch. This was a waste of time. But thanks for playing!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 7, 2023 14:08:20 GMT -6
Well we just had a fast round of Sleet in West Belleville... So there's that.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 7, 2023 14:31:21 GMT -6
Graupel/sleet coming down in O'Fallon IL
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 7, 2023 15:06:06 GMT -6
Sleet graupel mix in dardenne prairie
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Post by GlendaleWxGuy on Jan 7, 2023 15:19:21 GMT -6
45 degrees with Very large sleet/graupel (almost pea sized) falling in Kirkwood.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 7, 2023 15:47:37 GMT -6
Graupel in Troy earlier.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 7, 2023 16:03:01 GMT -6
Mix of sleet, graupel and snow in far north St. Peters the last 1/2 hour or so. It's melting on contact; even on raised surfaces like our deck.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 7, 2023 16:11:02 GMT -6
41F and moderate graupel falling in Edwardsville
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Jan 7, 2023 16:22:09 GMT -6
Pouring sleet in Silex. Gravel, and deck is covered, and collecting on the grass.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2023 16:45:26 GMT -6
18Z GFS has a nearly occluded very slow moving bowling ball that's closed off with multiple contours from the upper levels to the surface next week.
That at the very end has just enough cold to fart out a couple hours of accumulating wet snow.
It's obviously not happening. But I love the bowling ball look.
It would be nice if it came in about 150 miles further South overall and had a slightly colder airmass to tap into as it slowly marches through the Mississippi valley.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 7, 2023 16:55:54 GMT -6
this pattern is a disaster until who knows when, if ever.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 7, 2023 16:59:36 GMT -6
Roll Tide. I just love that one to death.
I guess youre not an Alabama fan? When my kids were young, I taught them not to hate, except for certain red things: Reds, Red Sox, Red Wings, and Alabama football. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2023 16:59:57 GMT -6
The GFS and euro seemingly try to build cold in the 5-10 day range over Siberia. But they both push it straight out into the Pacific and moderate day 10 on.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 7, 2023 18:08:35 GMT -6
Just got home from Scott AFB and left temperatures of about 43 and bottomed out at 33 near Clayton when I hit a couple minutes of heavy snow and rain. Visibility got very low and you could actually see snow snakes swirling across the interstate... something I can't remember ever seeing with rain and snow mixed. Here at home the temp is 36 with drizzle and a few passing flakes. Temps dropped quickly in the heaviest precip but it was clear it was melting almost immediately on the road surface and there was no hint of any accumulation on the grass. If there is to be any slushy accumulation it looks like it will be up in Pike County, Northern Montgomery County in MO and Northern Calhoun County in IL.
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