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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2023 19:11:58 GMT -6
Just got home from Scott AFB and left temperatures of about 43 and bottomed out at 33 near Clayton when I hit a couple minutes of heavy snow and rain. Visibility got very low and you could actually see snow snakes swirling across the interstate... something I can't remember ever seeing with rain and snow mixed. Here at home the temp is 36 with drizzle and a few passing flakes. Temps dropped quickly in the heaviest precip but it was clear it was melting almost immediately on the road surface and there was no hint of any accumulation on the grass. If there is to be any slushy accumulation it looks like it will be up in Pike County, Northern Montgomery County in MO and Northern Calhoun County in IL. I agree, and the NWS did pretty good outlining that area for the greatest potential...maybe just a bit too far SE. These Fgen bands are pretty transient so far. Very showery system. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 7, 2023 19:16:52 GMT -6
Pretty good snow shower in High Ridge. 35 to 37° depending on where you're at.
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Jan 7, 2023 20:12:36 GMT -6
Just measured on my deck with a yard stick, it's 3/4 inch. It's stuck on grass, gravel, deck and car. I haven't been out to see if it's stuck on the roadway.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2023 21:31:14 GMT -6
I was in Sauget earlier near Pops and beyond hello.
And when the first "shower" hit. It was pea sized if not slightly larger at times bright WHITE balls of snow.
It wasn't traditional sleet by any means.
Infact I have honestly never seen anything quite like it.
Expecially since it was so warm.
It lasted about 5 mins and no accumulation.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2023 21:32:06 GMT -6
Those bands look really far North. Maybe the GFS from a couple days ago for the win?  ? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2023 0:21:53 GMT -6
Ukie has the 500 low moving right through our wheelhouse next week and not a flake Jeez  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2023 4:37:11 GMT -6
Those bands look really far North. Maybe the GFS from a couple days ago for the win? ? It was only like 300mi too far north with the SLP, lol. It had the low tracking through N/central MO...it's in N MS currently. It also was way too warm with the profile. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 8, 2023 5:55:08 GMT -6
Light dusting forming in st.peters with this mornings batch of light snow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2023 6:12:47 GMT -6
Didn't have squat in Brighton when I left the house this morning but there's a heavy dusting in Jerseyville with light snow falling.
Yesterday while we were our hunting geese along the IL river there were a couple graupel showers with some of the biggest pellets I've ever seen.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2023 9:49:36 GMT -6
I hate to admit it, but I'm starting to be intrigued by that system on Thursday.
It has very little cold air to work with, but the ensembles have it taking an awfully favorable track for us from the TX panhandle, through the Memphis area, and then cutting NE into the Great lakes.
Probably nothing but rain here, but interesting.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 8, 2023 10:07:45 GMT -6
Finally seeing a few flakes
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2023 10:07:48 GMT -6
I hate to admit it, but I'm starting to be intrigued by that system on Thursday. It has very little cold air to work with, but the ensembles have it taking an awfully favorable track for us from the TX panhandle, through the Memphis area, and then cutting NE into the Great lakes. Probably nothing but rain here, but interesting. 12z gfs hammers those north of 70 with wet snow. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2023 10:11:02 GMT -6
I hate to admit it, but I'm starting to be intrigued by that system on Thursday. It has very little cold air to work with, but the ensembles have it taking an awfully favorable track for us from the TX panhandle, through the Memphis area, and then cutting NE into the Great lakes. Probably nothing but rain here, but interesting. 12z gfs hammers those north of 70 with wet snow. I was just pulling soundings from that deformation band it gets going.
Holy crap. Insane lift centered on the DGZ
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2023 10:16:41 GMT -6
Maybe it'll trend cooler like this storm did, but it's solidly in the thread-the-needle category for now. That's the type of system that will depend on dynamical cooling to generate snow...this pattern is almost spring-like.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2023 10:18:38 GMT -6
12z ggem and Icon have it weak and suppressed similar to what happened with the storm before Christmas.
Looks like there is a little lead wave now that could coax the cold air down more. The flip side is there isn’t enough room for the primary wave to amplify.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2023 10:38:08 GMT -6
We always get these needle thread storms to work our way. I say prepare for 3-7 inches at least. Or 40 and rain. Tough decision on what's more likely. Hmmm
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2023 10:53:31 GMT -6
12z Ukmet is supper suppressed as well.
The march to February continues.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Jan 8, 2023 11:24:27 GMT -6
Guess you can blame lack on snow on me. Bought grad kids sleds for Christmas. Kiss of death
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 8, 2023 11:53:04 GMT -6
Ya years ago we bought one of the kids a snowboard. It snowed a couple weeks before Christmas, so we decided to give the snowboard early. We debated though, bc every winter we were in st louis until then, you could count on 2 warning criteria snows. Turned out that was a good decision. The rest of the winter was snowless other than some mood flakes. I dont recall which year that was. Thinking late 90s.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 8, 2023 12:37:11 GMT -6
It’s my fault….. I bought a 2nd battery powered snow Joe
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2023 12:39:49 GMT -6
12z euro is actually close to a nice storm.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2023 12:44:49 GMT -6
Yeah just 15 degrees colder and 100 miles south and we're there lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2023 13:22:42 GMT -6
Yeah just 15 degrees colder and 100 miles south and we're there lol Nah, need it to go negative tilt quicker and draw the cold air in. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2023 13:30:25 GMT -6
Yeah just 15 degrees colder and 100 miles south and we're there lol Nah, need it to go negative tilt quicker and draw the cold air in. Yep, if it can slow down and draw in the colder air at the surface quicker, we would be in business.
It has a death band setting up over the metro
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2023 13:40:38 GMT -6
Same difference
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 8, 2023 13:56:47 GMT -6
No blocking high to make that happen.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2023 14:13:27 GMT -6
The set up we would need with this storm only happens once every 7-10 years, a storm with no blocking or cold air place. Basically the low needs to track over northern Arkansas or far southern Missouri , start to deepen as it passes to our south, strengthening (but not to much) be a closed low with a a def zone that changes over from rain to snow. And with border line temps you need heavier snow rates and preferably at night. I can remember a few over the last 20 years but it’s definitely not a normal occurrence. I remember a couple that did work out and once the change over occurred, big monster flakes poured down and roads cooled and covered in a matter of 15 minutes. Often times there’s a brief period of sleet mixed in as well during the changeover.
Usually our outcome ends up rain and 35 with a few wet flakes mixing in at the very end as the low is pulling away. It’s possible but not very likely.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2023 14:21:57 GMT -6
I can't believe IDOT threw salt for this...no wait, I can actually
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 8, 2023 14:42:11 GMT -6
I can't believe IDOT threw salt for this...no wait, I can actually Your tax dollars at work in the Land of Lincoln! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2023 15:24:22 GMT -6
While confidence is high that the cyclone will move through our
forecast area on Thursday morning, it`s still unclear exactly where
it will track. Most guidance favors a track through SE MO, resulting
in widespread precipitation across the CWA. However, there are a
handful of ensembles, along with the operational 12z Canadian, that
push the low so far south that we remain largely dry. Overall, 50-
70% of ensemble members bring precipitation to the region, with
the highest percentage toward SE MO and southern IL. Should the
low track to our south as shown by the vast majority of the
guidance, it will pull more cool air into the region compared to
previous forecasts. This has led to a higher number of members
depicting a chance for snowfall, with roughly 20% of ensemble
members showing measurable snow somewhere in the CWA. While this
is not the most likely outcome at this stage given the very warm
temperatures expected ahead of the system, it`s a reasonable
outcome that will need to be watched over the coming days.
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