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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2023 15:28:57 GMT -6
Positive news for the end of January/early February.
Signs starting to point towards another PV stretch event rather than a larger SSW and perhaps a full split.
Stretches have quicker impacts and more reliable outcomes.
The downside is they don’t last as long.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2023 15:48:16 GMT -6
Next week's storm has taken on a much different look the past several model cycles...what looked like a cut-off bowling ball is now a phasing, open shortwave. With more N stream influence, there's a chance the cold air could make a last-minute showing and introduce some backside snow chances...but it looks very marginal currently.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 8, 2023 15:56:09 GMT -6
It’d be nice to enjoy one or two snows in Feb before the sun gets too high!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2023 16:10:07 GMT -6
18z gfs is very close to a nice concrete maker for the metro.
Basically, the gfs and euro are interesting.
The Ukmet, GGEM, and Icon are weak/suppressed.
The storm is 4 days away so maybe this one trends good to makeup for the pre Christmas debacle.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2023 16:43:20 GMT -6
Not a bad look on the 18z GEFS for snowfall probs This is substantially higher than the 12z run  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2023 16:52:11 GMT -6
The GEFS mean does look pretty good from a GYB standpoint...but the airmass is solidly marginal.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2023 18:10:10 GMT -6
Thought I'd throw this out there one more time if anyone missed it the first time. I set up a small discord server that has some of us from the blog on there. Anyone is free to join. Discord is basically like a chat room if you're not sure what it is. discord.gg/nhTW2AQb |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2023 18:19:52 GMT -6
Yes it’s mean is now 1-2” from central Missouri right through the metro. It was basically 0” yesterday at this time . It just stinks there’s not more cold air to work with, if it was 10 degrees colder you would have a good 3-6” type set up most likely
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Post by amstilost on Jan 8, 2023 18:21:57 GMT -6
The GEFS mean does look pretty good from a GYB standpoint...but the airmass is solidly marginal. Well crap, I think a new 'most hated words' entry just crept into my top 10..... "Solidly marginal." |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2023 19:22:07 GMT -6
Wish we could see past hour 90 on the 18z euro.
Nice looking deformation zone there.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 8, 2023 21:27:17 GMT -6
Frosty bridges / overpasses overnight- be careful
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2023 22:04:27 GMT -6
00z gfs favors northern Illinois for the Thursday storm.
00z ggem is less flat than before, but much flatter than the gfs still.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 8, 2023 22:07:21 GMT -6
Frosty bridges / overpasses overnight- be careful Yep! It's already down to 24* at KSUS with freezing fog! Slick spots on some roads/elevated surfaces in the valleys tomorrow morning. A very light S wind is supposed to develop sometime in the early morning hours. If the light S wind develops that will slow the temp drop into the morning and allow more mixing at the surface (less fog). Though, there's a chance the S flow is delayed leading to more fog with temps in the low to mid 20s. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2023 6:24:07 GMT -6
Frost as thick as snow this Morning in St.Peters, may be the thickest frost I have witnessed a tenth or 2 deep its crazy.
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Post by joshofstl on Jan 9, 2023 6:31:38 GMT -6
Frosty bridges / overpasses overnight- be careful Looks like there are multiple accidents on bridges / overpasses this morning, including a shutdown on Eastbound 370 crossing into St. Louis County. |
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Post by REB on Jan 9, 2023 6:39:28 GMT -6
Chris is doing the morning show!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2023 7:47:51 GMT -6
Chris is doing the morning show! I'll be with you in the AM all week. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2023 7:54:54 GMT -6
This is one of the heaviest frosts I have seen in a long time.
I am sure bridges are terrifying this morning.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 9, 2023 8:29:55 GMT -6
This is one of the heaviest frosts I have seen in a long time. I am sure bridges are terrifying this morning. Soon to be exwife said the JB was well treated. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2023 9:22:04 GMT -6
Still not sure what to make of our little system later this week.
06z Euro had a pretty good hit of backside snow, but the GEFS/EPS favor N MO into N IL for accumulating snow.
I also wouldn't rule out some severe weather, especially for our southern counties.
Interesting system.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2023 9:34:32 GMT -6
I've only seen one or two frosts this heavy in my life...very pretty when the sun came out with all the trees covered.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2023 10:06:52 GMT -6
Kinda' reminded me of a hoar frost we might get if the temp was -20.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2023 10:09:13 GMT -6
Still not sure what to make of our little system later this week. 06z Euro had a pretty good hit of backside snow, but the GEFS/EPS favor N MO into N IL for accumulating snow. I also wouldn't rule out some severe weather, especially for our southern counties. Interesting system. I know what to make of it. Some rain maybe a few backside flakes. Then we wait for very late month or Feb. for any chance at snow. You're welcome lol. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2023 10:58:22 GMT -6
Looks like we just might get to utilize one of our favorite winter-time phrases..."Schmocker Rule"
If we're lucky, we'll get some flurries on Friday.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2023 11:23:07 GMT -6
There's enough model support for a bit of backside snow to keep some interest in that storm...but it's still very marginal. Most models track the h85 low overhead, which almost never turns out well for us. The few that track the SLP across S MO/IL get the cold air into place just in time for a changeover, but the better forcing is moving out. With the warm surface temps and time of day, it's a long shot for meaningful accumulations for most of the area.
If it trends further S and colder like this last system, I'll have more interest in it. But without a wave coming through the N stream out ahead of the ejecting primary shortwave, it's probably unlikely.
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Post by thechaser on Jan 9, 2023 11:26:53 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2023 13:01:25 GMT -6
There's enough model support for a bit of backside snow to keep some interest in that storm...but it's still very marginal. Most models track the h85 low overhead, which almost never turns out well for us. The few that track the SLP across S MO/IL get the cold air into place just in time for a changeover, but the better forcing is moving out. With the warm surface temps and time of day, it's a long shot for meaningful accumulations for most of the area. If it trends further S and colder like this last system, I'll have more interest in it. But without a wave coming through the N stream out ahead of the ejecting primary shortwave, it's probably unlikely. Models have been showing more northern stream energy diving into the backside of the system, which makes me think it will want to cut.
But at the same time, this thing is absolutely flying in off the Pacific.
It makes landfall in SoCal Tuesday night and by Wednesday night it's already here.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2023 13:04:35 GMT -6
Dan gets some great video during events lime this! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2023 13:10:08 GMT -6
Saw lots of geese pretty high up flying toward the north. Not a good sign for any real Winter weather, certainly not lasting. Sure we may pick up a brief intense cold snap again late month or early February, but that might be all she wrote. Spring might end up being cold though and Summer hellishly hot and dry, especially if the zombie La Nina can't die.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2023 13:11:38 GMT -6
There's enough model support for a bit of backside snow to keep some interest in that storm...but it's still very marginal. Most models track the h85 low overhead, which almost never turns out well for us. The few that track the SLP across S MO/IL get the cold air into place just in time for a changeover, but the better forcing is moving out. With the warm surface temps and time of day, it's a long shot for meaningful accumulations for most of the area. If it trends further S and colder like this last system, I'll have more interest in it. But without a wave coming through the N stream out ahead of the ejecting primary shortwave, it's probably unlikely. Models have been showing more northern stream energy diving into the backside of the system, which makes me think it will want to cut.
But at the same time, this thing is absolutely flying in off the Pacific.
It makes landfall in SoCal Tuesday night and by Wednesday night it's already here.
Gotta love that screaming jet stream from northern China/Japan. Most intense I've seen since the last El Nino |
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