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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2023 13:12:08 GMT -6
There's enough model support for a bit of backside snow to keep some interest in that storm...but it's still very marginal. Most models track the h85 low overhead, which almost never turns out well for us. The few that track the SLP across S MO/IL get the cold air into place just in time for a changeover, but the better forcing is moving out. With the warm surface temps and time of day, it's a long shot for meaningful accumulations for most of the area. If it trends further S and colder like this last system, I'll have more interest in it. But without a wave coming through the N stream out ahead of the ejecting primary shortwave, it's probably unlikely. Models have been showing more northern stream energy diving into the backside of the system, which makes me think it will want to cut.
But at the same time, this thing is absolutely flying in off the Pacific.
It makes landfall in SoCal Tuesday night and by Wednesday night it's already here.
I’m most interested in the models showing a 6 hour window of 1.5ish QPF. Wherever that sets up, it will be pure whiteout conditions if it’s cold enough. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2023 13:40:38 GMT -6
I'm gonna take a stab and say that will set up in Iowa...IRK to RFD
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2023 14:00:42 GMT -6
the gfs has the fire hose running from Texas to the hudson bay next week.
UHHHGGLLLYYYYY
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 9, 2023 16:45:00 GMT -6
Just every teleconnection is forecasting a different extended period than what is being modeled.
It’s always made me wonder, which controls which? If teleconnections and operational models don’t agree, will teleconnections fall in line with the model or will the model fall in line with the teleconnections?
If the teleconnections are to be believed, then the Pacific firehouse will shut off or at least be turned down and the polar vortex will weaken. Both conducive (normally) to a colder pattern across the eastern CONUS. However, op models aren’t showing anything like that occurring? Thoughts?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2023 19:19:52 GMT -6
Models have been showing more northern stream energy diving into the backside of the system, which makes me think it will want to cut.
But at the same time, this thing is absolutely flying in off the Pacific.
It makes landfall in SoCal Tuesday night and by Wednesday night it's already here.
I’m most interested in the models showing a 6 hour window of 1.5ish QPF. Wherever that sets up, it will be pure whiteout conditions if it’s cold enough. Ukmet is very close to that happening from the metro through central IL
The low level cold looks to arrive just a hair too late
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2023 20:15:37 GMT -6
still like the idea of more persistent cold late January into February. No reason to stray from that thought now. Still think it will snow in that timeframe as well.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2023 1:02:55 GMT -6
Just every teleconnection is forecasting a different extended period than what is being modeled. It’s always made me wonder, which controls which? If teleconnections and operational models don’t agree, will teleconnections fall in line with the model or will the model fall in line with the teleconnections? If the teleconnections are to be believed, then the Pacific firehouse will shut off or at least be turned down and the polar vortex will weaken. Both conducive (normally) to a colder pattern across the eastern CONUS. However, op models aren’t showing anything like that occurring? Thoughts? In my experience, the majority of the time,the models shift towards the teleconnection with time. Not always...but more often than not. But just lime there is a seasonal lag... the pattern can lag too. I also wonder if the presence of multiple teleconnections that favor cold, warm, wet, etc. may conteract each other. The atmosphere is so complex... that's what makes it so interesting. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 10, 2023 7:58:04 GMT -6
I found this an interesting time lapse. There's also some monthly versions.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2023 9:42:03 GMT -6
It's easy to see how moisture starved and disorganized most of the systems have been for much of the last year. Very few mature cyclones with dense comma heads.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2023 10:01:19 GMT -6
This upcoming storm is looking like a big ol' nothingburger...most models don't show any appreciable snowfall anywhere in the lower 48(outside of the mountain ranges) from it which is pretty remarkable in mid-January. We might not even get much rainfall from it...not surprising, I guess.
This pattern needs a big kick in the behind.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2023 10:17:38 GMT -6
Yes I agree this parttern is stale and springy.
I like the warm weather but also if we were not in the cool season we would be gettiing dry again.
The evaporation rate is so low right now that a half inch of rain keeps the soil wet for a long while.
I feel the only reason locally in the metro we did not have a drought and ended last year above normal was because of the 7 to 14 inches of rain that fell in late July with that massive flash flood event. And even that was far from a beneficial rain because of the intensity it just ran off.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2023 10:18:45 GMT -6
The large-scale pattern starts to look A LOT better around D10 with a -EPO starting to develop. I'd say models are starting to pick up on the PV stretching event that's occurring. It's not the extreme blocking pattern that we saw last month, which is probably a good thing...the period around the 20-22nd looks like it could support some wintry weather around here.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 10, 2023 10:40:48 GMT -6
The large-scale pattern starts to look A LOT better around D10 with a -EPO starting to develop. I'd say models are starting to pick up on the PV stretching event that's occurring. It's not the extreme blocking pattern that we saw last month, which is probably a good thing...the period around the 20-22nd looks like it could support some wintry weather around here. I was all in for a pattern flip around the 15th. Let’s hope the 20-22nd holds. I don’t want the pattern from December. 9/10 times it just leads to bitter cold with little snow. I was optimistic looking at things through the first half of January, but ultimately temps ended up 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms. Our best snows have come where we are between 28-35 temp wise. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2023 10:49:24 GMT -6
The large-scale pattern starts to look A LOT better around D10 with a -EPO starting to develop. I'd say models are starting to pick up on the PV stretching event that's occurring. It's not the extreme blocking pattern that we saw last month, which is probably a good thing...the period around the 20-22nd looks like it could support some wintry weather around here. The EPS does look good later in the month with a big west coast ridge establishing itself.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2023 10:56:44 GMT -6
The GEFS, EPS and CMCE means all have that +PNA/-EPO ridge with a negative developing across the Aleutians and the central US. Definitely a lot more favorable pattern than what we've seen lately.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2023 11:01:53 GMT -6
Saw this on another forum... Snowfall so far this season if it ended today.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2023 11:02:53 GMT -6
Doubt the little orange blob with red dot is accurate for Perryville/Farmington, MO area.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2023 11:04:55 GMT -6
The large-scale pattern starts to look A LOT better around D10 with a -EPO starting to develop. I'd say models are starting to pick up on the PV stretching event that's occurring. It's not the extreme blocking pattern that we saw last month, which is probably a good thing...the period around the 20-22nd looks like it could support some wintry weather around here. The EPS does look good later in the month with a big west coast ridge establishing itself. Just 2 more weeks!  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2023 11:19:57 GMT -6
The large-scale pattern starts to look A LOT better around D10 with a -EPO starting to develop. I'd say models are starting to pick up on the PV stretching event that's occurring. It's not the extreme blocking pattern that we saw last month, which is probably a good thing...the period around the 20-22nd looks like it could support some wintry weather around here. I was all in for a pattern flip around the 15th. Let’s hope the 20-22nd holds. I don’t want the pattern from December. 9/10 times it just leads to bitter cold with little snow. I was optimistic looking at things through the first half of January, but ultimately temps ended up 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms. Our best snows have come where we are between 28-35 temp wise. Dare I say a “mild” period.😉 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2023 12:18:00 GMT -6
Mid January Favorable low track Plenty of moisture to work with Good deformation zone All rain Puke  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2023 12:24:46 GMT -6
Mid January Favorable low track Plenty of moisture to work with Good deformation zone All rain Puke $10 says late March rolls around and we get wet snow lol. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2023 12:35:35 GMT -6
Mid January Favorable low track Plenty of moisture to work with Good deformation zone All rain Puke $10 says late March rolls around and we get wet snow lol. That might actually be quite plausible this year the way things look from this range... |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2023 12:56:47 GMT -6
Don’t worry, if you aren’t satisfied with this rainy deformation zone, next week seems to offer at least another one if not multiple.
Horrible stretch. If the pre Christmas storm would have delivered 6+ inches area wide, this would have been much easier to ignore.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2023 13:27:14 GMT -6
I found a 202" lollipop on the GFS for the Sierra Nevadas over the next 7 days.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2023 13:29:12 GMT -6
I found a 202" lollipop on the GFS for the Sierra Nevadas over the next 7 days. Buffalo can do it in 48 hours |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 10, 2023 13:49:50 GMT -6
Wish we had a big lake or mountain nearby...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2023 14:01:39 GMT -6
Wish we had a big lake or mountain nearby... Instead, we have a big smelly river and a silly little plateau...lol |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 10, 2023 14:31:25 GMT -6
I was all in for a pattern flip around the 15th. Let’s hope the 20-22nd holds. I don’t want the pattern from December. 9/10 times it just leads to bitter cold with little snow. I was optimistic looking at things through the first half of January, but ultimately temps ended up 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms. Our best snows have come where we are between 28-35 temp wise. Dare I say a “mild” period.😉 Mild, yes. Blowtorch at times, also yes. I wasn’t expecting temps to take off like they have given the multiple month pattern we’ve been in. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2023 14:56:53 GMT -6
We are going to be running about 3-4 degrees above the all time January average temperature record by middle of next week if forecasts hold.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 10, 2023 22:30:53 GMT -6
This is one of the most depressing times of year. Archery season is coming to a close, it’s 50+ degrees outside, no time for a snowmobile trip, and absolutely nothing of interest to look at on the models outside of some flakes falling from the sky Thursday. Boooring
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