|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 11, 2023 2:56:49 GMT -6
Ya this place was hoping 3-4 weeks ago. Not so much now. Booooring weather.
Although you can't complain about 60° and no bugs. Hehe
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2023 8:06:43 GMT -6
sudden fog rolling in in west Belleville.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 11, 2023 8:10:26 GMT -6
I was in the dfw metroplex late december. I have to admit, this kind of weather with no bugs is nice. Normally when we get this mild, we get inches and inches of rain. Thats what we should be concerned with but fortunately, i dont see an excessive amount of rain. Unfortunately by the same token, no hint of accumulating snow either and the snowpack to our north is eroding to the point that may turn this whole winter's future cold snaps into an irrelevant period anyway. While tail end of jan into feb offers potential, any ams may quickly modify or be too weak to be sustainable for the kind of pattern that keeps this forum sane. Late season late night concretefests followed by 60* temps next day is no fun imo.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2023 10:33:18 GMT -6
Still looks possible someone in the CWA gets a blasting of cement snow tomorrow. Likely in the western CWA where precep will start before the heating of the day kicks in.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2023 10:41:53 GMT -6
Mehhhhhhhhhh
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2023 10:49:34 GMT -6
It’s a very meh setup Some of the CAMs are hinting at possible lightning in the deformation zone.  |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2023 11:04:14 GMT -6
It’s a very meh setup Some of the CAMs are hinting at possible lightning in the deformation zone. I've kept it in the forecast calling it a "novelty" snow with maybe 15 to 30 minutes of wet snow mixed with rain. I do think it may be a case where elevation matters... so the hills in the northeast Oxarks seem like the most likely spot. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2023 12:10:47 GMT -6
This episode of spring in st Louis in January sucks
|
|
bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
|
Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 11, 2023 12:15:16 GMT -6
I was in the dfw metroplex late december. I have to admit, this kind of weather with no bugs is nice. Normally when we get this mild, we get inches and inches of rain. Thats what we should be concerned with but fortunately, i dont see an excessive amount of rain. Unfortunately by the same token, no hint of accumulating snow either and the snowpack to our north is eroding to the point that may turn this whole winter's future cold snaps into an irrelevant period anyway. While tail end of jan into feb offers potential, any ams may quickly modify or be too weak to be sustainable for the kind of pattern that keeps this forum sane. Late season late night concretefests followed by 60* temps next day is no fun imo. Yeah this is one of the most pitiful mid-January snowfall depth maps I think I've ever seen. What happened to our winter?  |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 11, 2023 12:22:53 GMT -6
I got bored and did some reading. The RRFS (Rapid Refresh Forecast System) is based on the FV3 and is scheduled to replace the HRRR (and possibly NAM) in 2024. That's not the interesting part though. The roadmap lists artificial intelligence augmentation possibly as early as 2030. I suspect this is true for the GFS as well. Don't worry though, I'm sure 920 has enough bandwidth to augment NOAA's computational weather forecasting systems and moonlight on this forum so I think we're good.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2023 12:30:56 GMT -6
I got bored and did some reading. The RRFS (Rapid Refresh Forecast System) is based on the FV3 and is scheduled to replace the HRRR (and possibly NAM) in 2024. That's not the interesting part though. The roadmap lists artificial intelligence augmentation possibly as early as 2030. I suspect this is true for the GFS as well. Don't worry though, I'm sure 920 has enough bandwidth to augment NOAA's computational weather forecasting systems and moonlight on this forum so I think we're good. I did read that RFFS news yesterday. Sounds like the HRRR, RAP, and NAMs might be replaced by it. I’ll make sure my operating system is up to par to handle the new data 😉 |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2023 12:33:22 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 11, 2023 12:38:57 GMT -6
Oh, that slide says operational Q3 of 2023 and that is dated Jan. 9th of 2023. The 2024 date I got was from a document in July 2022. If they're ahead of schedule then job well done.
Edit: The twitter post clarifies that and says it will likely be 2024.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2023 12:49:15 GMT -6
Unfortunate...the HRRR seems like a pretty solid short-range model. And if it's replacement is based off the new GFS core...I don't have very high hopes for it.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 11, 2023 13:28:46 GMT -6
Unfortunate...the HRRR seems like a pretty solid short-range model. And if it's replacement is based off the new GFS core...I don't have very high hopes for it. Should probably just partner with our European friends and focus on integrating better real time data on atmospheric conditions instead of trying to reinvent the wheel. |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 11, 2023 13:49:31 GMT -6
I was out on my route today delivering to one of my stores and went to the dumpster to throw some trash away,there were 5-10 bees flying around it ……. Pretty sure I’ve never seen bees in January lol
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2023 13:56:05 GMT -6
I was out on my route today delivering to one of my stores and went to the dumpster to throw some trash away,there were 5-10 bees flying around it ……. Pretty sure I’ve never seen bees in January lol Yep, I saw some last week as well. They were all over the peanut tube I put out for the woodpeckers and nuthatches and friends. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2023 13:56:42 GMT -6
Unfortunate...the HRRR seems like a pretty solid short-range model. And if it's replacement is based off the new GFS core...I don't have very high hopes for it. Should probably just partner with our European friends and focus on integrating better real time data on atmospheric conditions instead of trying to reinvent the wheel. That would be ideal. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 11, 2023 15:05:22 GMT -6
And the peepers
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2023 16:05:50 GMT -6
Rolla, Salem, MO, even up to Union, MO might wanna keep an eye on things, recent model runs have been showing enough colder/dynamic cooling to support a 3-6 hour thump of heavy wet snow which some models have been dumping out 2 to as much as 6" when adjusted for snow to liquid ratios which will be like 6:1 to 8:1. Due to the nature of the event, this will likely be a very spotty event with pockets of heavier snow with other areas that get little to none. Higher elevations of course are favored. Even the metro could see some flakes mix in late in heavier precipitation rates and perhaps an hour or so of moderate snow before deeper moisture moves out by lunchtime tomorrow.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2023 17:22:58 GMT -6
Unfortunate...the HRRR seems like a pretty solid short-range model. And if it's replacement is based off the new GFS core...I don't have very high hopes for it. Yes I agree! I've always liked the HRRR and it has been my favorite short range model. |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 11, 2023 19:00:38 GMT -6
I was in the dfw metroplex late december. I have to admit, this kind of weather with no bugs is nice. Normally when we get this mild, we get inches and inches of rain. Thats what we should be concerned with but fortunately, i dont see an excessive amount of rain. Unfortunately by the same token, no hint of accumulating snow either and the snowpack to our north is eroding to the point that may turn this whole winter's future cold snaps into an irrelevant period anyway. While tail end of jan into feb offers potential, any ams may quickly modify or be too weak to be sustainable for the kind of pattern that keeps this forum sane. Late season late night concretefests followed by 60* temps next day is no fun imo. Yeah this is one of the most pitiful mid-January snowfall depth maps I think I've ever seen. What happened to our winter? The snow depth over from Toronto to the East and North all the way to the Atlantic and the Hudson is supposed to be 2-4X deeper on average then that shows. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2023 19:23:25 GMT -6
The 00z HRRR is painful   |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2023 20:01:36 GMT -6
0Z Hi-Res NAM is a super soaker for Monroe, St. Clair, and Clinton counties in Illinois, widespread 2-4" amounts!
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 11, 2023 22:07:10 GMT -6
The trend this year is definitely weaker and flatter.
That makes me think the 19th-24th will yield a storm in our region.
Iowa to Wisconsin probably get it first, but then I think we have some hope.
Might be able to actually enjoy looking at the models as soon as this weekend.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2023 22:19:34 GMT -6
Someone in the Ozarks area near Rolla could get several inches of snow tomorrow morning
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jan 11, 2023 23:02:57 GMT -6
RIP JB (Jeff Beck), apparently there is some confusion with some people on Twitter.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2023 23:56:59 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 12, 2023 3:43:03 GMT -6
I probably won't get a single thing up here...
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 12, 2023 5:45:38 GMT -6
Snow in Jeff City. Cold wet AM.
|
|
