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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2023 6:43:30 GMT -6
Yes Jeff City looks to be ground zero right now, on Heavy Snow, roads are covered and it looks like several inches have already fallen with a few more hours of moderate to heavy snow .
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2023 7:25:59 GMT -6
The long range GFS and ensemble mean looks better.
But it also shows a healthy SE ridge which can ruin us even with blocking in the NE Pacific ocean.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 12, 2023 8:17:46 GMT -6
Think the changeover has gone as far east as its going to go... roughly Hwy 19. With a mix as far east as Hwy 47
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2023 8:19:24 GMT -6
That se ridge...that has to go for us to have storms in our wheelhouse. Otherwise, cutters
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Post by weatherj on Jan 12, 2023 8:26:37 GMT -6
That se ridge...that has to go for us to have storms in our wheelhouse. Otherwise, cutters The SE ridge is needed to a least a weak degree though, correct? I know if it's too strong then cutters would be a problem, but if it is totally wiped out wouldn't that tend to lead to suppression? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2023 8:27:13 GMT -6
Meh. The se ridge can help too. Just depends how strong it is
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 12, 2023 8:51:28 GMT -6
I’m going to start telling the story to my grandkids about how when I was a kid it used to snow in the Midwest lol
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2023 9:02:19 GMT -6
Man the last few runs of the GFS really get winter going late months, much colder with several storms in the Midwest
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2023 9:28:41 GMT -6
The GFS has been showing that big burst of warming nosing towards the pole towards the end of it's run but it keeps pushing it back, too. Definitely a couple good stretching events before that happens though. Long range progs seem to be picking up on the impacts from that.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2023 9:37:56 GMT -6
Widespread 2-3” out across central MO this morning with even a 5” report
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2023 9:38:20 GMT -6
This heavy rain and 35 horse sh1t on Jan 12 is depressing
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2023 9:42:07 GMT -6
SCHMOCKER RULES
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2023 9:44:48 GMT -6
Not even sure we got a tenth of rainfall here...let alone snow, lol
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Post by bear1 on Jan 12, 2023 9:46:30 GMT -6
Just a guesstimate 2" on the ground IMBY, & coming down hard 
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2023 9:50:50 GMT -6
Looks like another possible severe weather event next week before winter returns...fasten your seatbelts!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2023 10:03:20 GMT -6
The trend this year is definitely weaker and flatter. That makes me think the 19th-24th will yield a storm in our region. Iowa to Wisconsin probably get it first, but then I think we have some hope. Might be able to actually enjoy looking at the models as soon as this weekend. The GEFS mean has a very favorable loading pattern developing in that timeframe for the Midwest with plenty of cold air available after the 20th or so. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2023 10:17:46 GMT -6
Looks like another possible severe weather event next week before winter returns...fasten your seatbelts! That system late next week definitely has my attention. Looking like a strong cutter with plenty of moisture to work with. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 12, 2023 12:55:44 GMT -6
The GFS is chock full of rain-to-mild storms. The maybe-not-so-bad part is that the GFS is likely to be wrong anyway!?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 12, 2023 13:02:27 GMT -6
Large tornado crossing I-65 north of Montgomery AL. Impressive radar signature!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2023 13:23:27 GMT -6
Large tornado crossing I-65 north of Montgomery AL. Impressive radar signature! The debris fallout on that cell is crazy. It’s completely dominating the FFD |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 12, 2023 14:26:28 GMT -6
Large tornado crossing I-65 north of Montgomery AL. Impressive radar signature! The debris fallout on that cell is crazy. It’s completely dominating the FFD How high did the debris get? |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2023 14:28:42 GMT -6
The trend this year is definitely weaker and flatter. That makes me think the 19th-24th will yield a storm in our region. Iowa to Wisconsin probably get it first, but then I think we have some hope. Might be able to actually enjoy looking at the models as soon as this weekend. The GEFS mean has a very favorable loading pattern developing in that timeframe for the Midwest with plenty of cold air available after the 20th or so. The 12z GEFS is fantastic from about day 8 on. The Eastern Pacific completes the ridge building over the Eastern/NE Pacific opening the door for deep cold to pancake into the lower midwest/ohio/mississippi valleys. A major PV anomaly gets rolling over far Eastern/NE Canada. It allows the flood gates to open while also pancaking the SE ridge. At the very very end of the run it looks like the PV anomaly wants to maybe start retrograding towards the W/WSW while an East based -NAO sets up. Its really freaking good. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2023 14:37:26 GMT -6
The debris fallout on that cell is crazy. It’s completely dominating the FFD How high did the debris get? Someone I know posted there Emmerson method online. They clocked it at 22k ft  |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 12, 2023 14:39:10 GMT -6
The GEFS mean has a very favorable loading pattern developing in that timeframe for the Midwest with plenty of cold air available after the 20th or so. The 12z GEFS is fantastic from about day 8 on. The Eastern Pacific completes the ridge building over the Eastern/NE Pacific opening the door for deep cold to pancake into the lower midwest/ohio/mississippi valleys. A major PV anomaly gets rolling over far Eastern/NE Canada. It allows the flood gates to open while also pancaking the SE ridge. At the very very end of the run it looks like the PV anomaly wants to maybe start retrograding towards the W/WSW while an East based -NAO sets up. Its really freaking good. Ya just jinxed it. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 12, 2023 15:34:59 GMT -6
A significant tornado has struck Selma, AL
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2023 16:19:40 GMT -6
The GEFS mean has a very favorable loading pattern developing in that timeframe for the Midwest with plenty of cold air available after the 20th or so. The 12z GEFS is fantastic from about day 8 on. The Eastern Pacific completes the ridge building over the Eastern/NE Pacific opening the door for deep cold to pancake into the lower midwest/ohio/mississippi valleys. A major PV anomaly gets rolling over far Eastern/NE Canada. It allows the flood gates to open while also pancaking the SE ridge. At the very very end of the run it looks like the PV anomaly wants to maybe start retrograding towards the W/WSW while an East based -NAO sets up. Its really freaking good. Yeah, it looks great. What could go wrong?! |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 12, 2023 20:15:54 GMT -6
Took the dog out and something that felt icy was spitting from the sky.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2023 21:47:04 GMT -6
Beautiful, much flatter low on the 00z Icon for next Wednesday/Thursday.
Nice looking snowstorm for the region.
Hopefully, the other models jump onboard as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2023 22:09:59 GMT -6
Beautiful, much flatter low on the 00z Icon for next Wednesday/Thursday. Nice looking snowstorm for the region. Hopefully, the other models jump onboard as well. I don't know why I wrote that off as a cutter already.
More than a few EPS members have a decent winter storm here from that system.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2023 22:19:07 GMT -6
Beautiful, much flatter low on the 00z Icon for next Wednesday/Thursday. Nice looking snowstorm for the region. Hopefully, the other models jump onboard as well. I don't know why I wrote that off as a cutter already.
More than a few EPS members have a decent winter storm here from that system.
Seasonal trend for the win. 00z gfs is way weaker/flatter. |
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