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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2023 9:04:02 GMT -6
Looks like another good SCHMOCKER RULE candidate to me...I hate California Storms.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2023 10:12:56 GMT -6
The last few GFS runs have gone from a cutter 350 miles NW of here to a snowstorm  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2023 10:21:01 GMT -6
That’s what we like to see , usually it’s the other way around unfortunately. We’re definitely due, it’s been a turd of a year for the metro, except the southern folks
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2023 10:33:09 GMT -6
Im more interested in the system after that one.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 13, 2023 10:52:27 GMT -6
Im more interested in the system after that one. I see you are channeling your inner teenager social media posting skills. “OMG, I can’t even!!! (Insert emoji)” What’s sparking the interest outside of the obvious? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2023 11:10:04 GMT -6
Im more interested in the system after that one. I see you are channeling your inner teenager social media posting skills. “OMG, I can’t even!!! (Insert emoji)” What’s sparking the interest outside of the obvious? It seems like more often than not it turns out that it is the second or third in the string that gets us. The first one delivers the cold, then the second works its magic with it. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2023 11:30:03 GMT -6
Im more interested in the system after that one. Same here. This next system(after Monday's wave) looks an awful lot like this last one...nothing coming through the N stream to get the cold air into place. If it does track far enough south and deepens while it passes, I could see some wet flakes around. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2023 11:31:48 GMT -6
Maybe that lead wave on Monday will be enough to coax down the "cold enough" airmass to make things interesting. Model trend seems to support that. But I'm not too jazzed about it at this point.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 13, 2023 12:39:15 GMT -6
Maybe that lead wave on Monday will be enough to coax down the "cold enough" airmass to make things interesting. Model trend seems to support that. But I'm not too jazzed about it at this point.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2023 12:46:22 GMT -6
The signal is now quite strong that the 19th-26th will replenish the snowpack across the upper Midwest.
I believe there is strong potential we have an accumulating snow during that period.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2023 13:19:39 GMT -6
12z EPS has a favorable surface low track with that system next week from Little Rock to Indianapolis.
Mid-level low looks to track across northern MO so not ideal there
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2023 13:29:43 GMT -6
 it's not going to snow.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 13, 2023 14:50:17 GMT -6
it's not going to snow.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 13, 2023 16:07:06 GMT -6
If the period of interest is between the 19th and 26th, i would bet we are going to be closer to the 26th. It is going to take a while to build that snow pack and this time of year, i think thats important, especially since when i last checked the strength of high pressures were less than remarkable. I dont trust any models track this far out until we start to get run to run and intermodel consistency. Still liking tail end of jan into early feb.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 13, 2023 16:23:04 GMT -6
Did we go behind the black curtain for a reason? Have to login to view the boards.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2023 16:26:35 GMT -6
Did we go behind the black curtain for a reason? Have to login to view the boards. Only for a seconds while I was testing something. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 13, 2023 18:12:02 GMT -6
Did we go behind the black curtain for a reason? Have to login to view the boards. Only for a seconds while I was testing something. Well that feature worked. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 14, 2023 0:33:05 GMT -6
Frosty bridges/overpasses looking likely overnight
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2023 8:36:25 GMT -6
GFS still bullish with the SSW event developing at the end of the month...has a huge area of >0*C temps at 10mb moving over the pole which I've never seen before. That would be a highly anomalous strat warming event.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2023 10:48:55 GMT -6
GFS still bullish with the SSW event developing at the end of the month...has a huge area of >0*C temps at 10mb moving over the pole which I've never seen before. That would be a highly anomalous strat warming event. Medium to extended range on the operational models is starting to look fun and interesting. I will remain cautiously optimistic, but we are out of runway if this fails/gets pushed back. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2023 10:50:39 GMT -6
SOI finally taking a good dip again...that's encouraging  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2023 10:57:34 GMT -6
MJO is forecast to move into the 1/2 quadrant next week...that's also supportive of a much more wintry pattern across the Central US. Things seem to be lining up for a good stretch late month into February.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2023 10:57:48 GMT -6
EPO looks to go negative starting in a week, so that should get the pattern in the pacific on our side.   |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2023 12:12:35 GMT -6
With all that energy dumping into the SW, arctic aimass becoming available and a stubborn SE ridge, I can't help but think that we haven't had a major ice storm in 15 years. I say it every winter it seems, but we are WAY OVERDUE.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2023 15:39:38 GMT -6
12z EC with a juicy looking SNOWSTORM here next weekend. Things are looking up...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2023 16:33:26 GMT -6
May need to keep an eye out Monday afternoon for a cold core severe setup
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2023 17:19:58 GMT -6
May need to keep an eye out Monday afternoon for a cold core severe setup Kinda seems like a favorable setup for hailers...maybe some CAFs |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 14, 2023 19:07:56 GMT -6
The signal is weak, but I am seeing something worth keeping in mind regarding an increase in active weather after the 23rd.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2023 19:14:23 GMT -6
The -EPO has been delivering for us over the last decade.
``
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 15, 2023 7:51:14 GMT -6
The -EPO has been delivering for us over the last decade. `` I remember when that correlation was realized on this board. Total game changer for us in regards to being able to mostly accurately deduce what should happen with the weather. |
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it's not going to snow. 
