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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 9:38:18 GMT -6
Looking at the model trend loop for the GFS for the pattern leading up to the arrival of the Thursday system shows a clear trend. The eastern ridge is coming in stronger and the upper low over southeast Canada has been gradually shifting more to the northwest as well. This has the trickle down effect of forcing the flow of energy entering the west coast a bit further to the south..and increasing the angle off attack of that jet into the western US... aka... more digging. More digging = strong surface low.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 9:44:14 GMT -6
Looking at the model trend loop for the GFS for the pattern leading up to the arrival of the Thursday system shows a clear trend. The eastern ridge is coming in stronger and the upper low over southeast Canada has been gradually shifting more to the northwest as well. This has the trickle down effect of forcing the flow of energy entering the west coast a bit further to the south..and increasing the angle off attack of that jet into the western US... aka... more digging. More digging = strong surface low. Definitely a better look with the main bundle of energy digging across the S/Central Rockies vs. the front range. The blocking is doing the dirty work. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 9:44:44 GMT -6
The GFS seems like the most consistent/stable model lately...take that for what it's worth. I never bother to look at the ICON myself. I’m not saying it is right, but it has higher verification scores than the gfs and ggem. Reasonable people can argue with how the verification scores are calculated. For sure... and what is used to calculate those scores. The public cares about the outcome...sensible weather. We weather geeks (friendly term for the group) get interested in some very fine details... most of which are way above our heads... literally... in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 9:52:48 GMT -6
I think brtn alluded to it earlier at some point... but this is a system in transition. It arrives in the US more as Clipper... it is most definitely of northern stream origin. Southern lows sweep out of the four corners and into Texas and pick up moisture from the GOM... this system is NOT doing that and won't catch up to the GOM moisture until it gets to the Ohio Valley... mainly because it's moving too quickly... pushed along by a 175kt jet at 300mb! ***EDIT...I forgot to add this part*** The upper level system supports a clipper system in the cold air that devolves into more of an inverted trough...which eventually gets linked back to a rapidly organizing Colorado type low that will RAPIDLY ride along the surface front to the east. Sometimes they appear to almost jump before finally getting anchored near the triple point where the inverted trough meets up with the front. That all sounds convoluted... and I'm not sure I'm describing it well. This is what we call in the TV busines... "the system is organizing" or "getting its act together" and leave the rest to the imagination  No matter which camp this ends up tipping into... the northern camp or the southern camp... this is going to be a brutal winter weather event. The track is just going to tell us how much snow is going to go with the brutal. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 18, 2022 9:53:41 GMT -6
Blizzards don't happen here. It is true in the last 100 years or so of hourly observation there is no evidence that I could find. But I firmly believe they can happen here and probably have in the past. But clearly a rare event. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 9:55:01 GMT -6
My problem with the verification scores is that it's based on a hemispheric scale as I understand it...and that doesn't necessarily equate to a better performing model at the synoptic scale.
I tend to focus on the "trend and blend" vs. individual models anyway. I've heard some say that model trend doesn't hold weight, but I strongly disagree.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2022 9:57:59 GMT -6
trends are definitely a thing to follow, no doubt.
Where's friv!??
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 9:59:45 GMT -6
Yeah, Chris...I had been calling this a "super clipper" or a hybrid of sorts. But it is starting to take on some Southern Low characteristics with time. Some of the models are really struggling with the transfer of energy/stream phasing...particularly the EC, IMO.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 10:00:36 GMT -6
I was thinking it was about time for a FRIVOLOUS report...the meter needs dusted off!
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2022 10:02:57 GMT -6
gfs looks like it'll be a biggin
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 10:02:57 GMT -6
Gfs still in beast mode
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 10:03:26 GMT -6
Oh boy... strap on your seatbelts...
GFS... wow...
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 10:03:52 GMT -6
GFS is going to pop.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 10:04:08 GMT -6
Gfs will be an absolute monster run
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 10:04:19 GMT -6
O
M
G
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 18, 2022 10:04:23 GMT -6
Because the system is taking on southern storm characteristics this means will likely be able to apply the GYB method rather effectively I suspect.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 10:04:45 GMT -6
Unbelievable
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 10:06:02 GMT -6
7°
SN+
40 mph gusts
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 10:06:49 GMT -6
Well, the GFS just generated your extreme goal post on the right. It doesn't get more perfect than that.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 10:07:14 GMT -6
Because the system is taking on southern storm characteristics this means will likely be able to apply the GYB method rather effectively I suspect. With that strong of a high crashing down, does it not try to squash the far Nw Edge of precip? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 10:07:26 GMT -6
That is as good of a model run you will ever get outside of the fantasy land 240+ hour range.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 10:09:15 GMT -6
Well good morning GFS
Wow
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 18, 2022 10:09:34 GMT -6
925mb winds ripping at 50kts so 50+mph gusts as the system scoots out with light snow still falling. Definitely an extreme outcome. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 10:10:30 GMT -6
That would shut the majority of this city down for a couple days
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 10:12:39 GMT -6
Obviously 4 days to go, BUT, if this outcome happened snow shower activity would continue through end of Friday with that strong of winds coming NE out of Lake Michigan.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 18, 2022 10:12:48 GMT -6
The 850mb and 700mb lows pass near the composite benchmark locations for STL.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 10:16:44 GMT -6
GEM very solid as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 10:17:22 GMT -6
That GFS run is showing:
50-60+ mph gust
Over a foot of snow
Windchills approaching -30
Actual temps getting down to -10
That would be a system for the record books
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2022 10:17:27 GMT -6
yep canadian is a good one
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 10:17:36 GMT -6
The new GFS is the best model there is. There will be no more questions.
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