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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 31, 2023 19:02:45 GMT -6
Hey bdg and jmg, this looks familiar doesn’t it
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 31, 2023 19:04:18 GMT -6
Well it was a decent hit of some heavy rain, gusty winds, and some pea sized hail (only a few stones)
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Post by amstilost on Mar 31, 2023 19:07:07 GMT -6
Sure looked to me like he turned the wheel to the right. Hope I'm wrong about that.
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 31, 2023 19:07:38 GMT -6
Hey bdg and jmg, this looks familiar doesn’t it Ugg...idiots. Yes. Stupid chaser's like this are by far the biggest risk. |
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 31, 2023 19:15:48 GMT -6
Power flickering in st.peters
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 31, 2023 19:20:38 GMT -6
Our power has been out for about an hour now
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 31, 2023 19:21:33 GMT -6
Sure looked to me like he turned the wheel to the right. Hope I'm wrong about that. It was Chamara (bart) Comstock. She wrecked after that incident. |
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Post by dschreib on Mar 31, 2023 19:21:41 GMT -6
Edit (location)
That cell that pulsed over us finally dropped a tornado somewhere along 64, according to reports?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 31, 2023 19:28:44 GMT -6
Edit (location) That cell that pulsed over us finally dropped a tornado somewhere along 64, according to reports? Southern Illinois fire incidents reported a confirmed tornado in Washington county |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 31, 2023 19:35:43 GMT -6
Sure looked to me like he turned the wheel to the right. Hope I'm wrong about that. It was Chamara (bart) Comstock. She wrecked after that incident. I'm shocked. Glad she didn't take Reed out with her...that was an extremely close call due to incredibly bad judgement |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 31, 2023 19:49:17 GMT -6
Nasty looking rogue supercell SE of Effingham.
What a day...
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 31, 2023 19:55:52 GMT -6
Nasty looking rogue supercell SE of Effingham. What a day... Forecasts held up pretty well though the hall threat wasn't really picked up on until this morning. Risk areas were pretty spot on. All storm modes and hazards verified. Also bound to be expensive for insurance companies. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 31, 2023 19:57:28 GMT -6
Nasty looking rogue supercell SE of Effingham. What a day... Pretty significant tornado outbreak today Thankfully the threat wasn’t full realized locally I don’t know if we will be able to say the same thing come Tuesday… |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 31, 2023 19:58:42 GMT -6
15 severe and 6 tornado warnings are in effect across the country from this storm. Tornado watches from Milwaukee wi to Waco tx.
That's insane.
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 31, 2023 20:05:36 GMT -6
I think the SPC did a great job with the event. The two separate high risk areas was weird but it worked out ok. In fact the big tornadoes of the day were pretty close to those zones. I realize locally the cells couldn't pull it together and drop a strong tornado in the immediate area. But I wouldn't have changed the messaging. Let's consider ourselves lucky with this one and take it.
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Post by ElburnDave on Mar 31, 2023 20:14:31 GMT -6
Sure looked to me like he turned the wheel to the right. Hope I'm wrong about that. Looks pretty clear to me. |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Mar 31, 2023 20:15:09 GMT -6
Garden variety thunderstorm earlier in North St. Pete. Winds weren’t much higher than they’ve been most of the day. Certainly nothing severe. Hopefully everyone else is safe.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 31, 2023 20:18:06 GMT -6
This doesn’t sound good at all
#BREAKING We are following a major news story coming out of Belvidere, Illinois.
A roof collapse has been reported at Apollo Theatre where a concert was taking place.
Reports of a potential mass casualty event is unfolding and 20+ ambulances have been requested.
Our prayers are with the community and we’ll provide updates as we get more information.
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 31, 2023 20:19:37 GMT -6
As of this post we have 43 filtered tornado reports. This was definitely a very significant severe weather outbreak.
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 31, 2023 20:21:35 GMT -6
Those Iowa tornadoes... the LCL must have been 100-200ft
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 31, 2023 20:22:37 GMT -6
TOR-E to our east near the IL/IN border
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Mar 31, 2023 20:23:13 GMT -6
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Post by dschreib on Mar 31, 2023 20:33:18 GMT -6
Nasty looking rogue supercell SE of Effingham. What a day... That's the same one that pulsed on and off from north of Ste Gen, right over the top of me, and then finally put something down along I-64 in Washington County.
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 31, 2023 20:34:53 GMT -6
There is video of the chaos that ensued in that theater after the roof collapsed online.
Anyway, I just wish these people who mock the situation by posting pictures of rainbows and saying things like "Terror over Balwin" would educate themselves on what it is like for those that weren't so lucky.
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Post by REB on Mar 31, 2023 20:42:19 GMT -6
Does anyone know if there was hail at the airport?
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Post by dschreib on Mar 31, 2023 20:44:59 GMT -6
There is video of the chaos that ensued in that theater after the roof collapsed online. Anyway, I just wish these people who mock the situation by posting pictures of rainbows and saying things like "Terror over Balwin" would educate themselves on what it is like for those that weren't so lucky. As awful as it is to forecast winter weather, severe outbreaks have to be worse. There was a large region primed to produce tornadoes today, but good luck trying to figure out which cells will materialize and which ones won't. I'm sure somebody smarter than me can look back at all the parameters and figure it out after the fact. But take that cell that passed over me. The tail end of it had spin from the time it went north of Ste Gen, pulsed on and off for miles, finally put something down just to my east, and then intensified again after it got past Centralia. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 31, 2023 21:07:10 GMT -6
There is video of the chaos that ensued in that theater after the roof collapsed online. Anyway, I just wish these people who mock the situation by posting pictures of rainbows and saying things like "Terror over Balwin" would educate themselves on what it is like for those that weren't so lucky. As awful as it is to forecast winter weather, severe outbreaks have to be worse. There was a large region primed to produce tornadoes today, but good luck trying to figure out which cells will materialize and which ones won't. I'm sure somebody smarter than me can look back at all the parameters and figure it out after the fact. But take that cell that passed over me. The tail end of it had spin from the time it went north of Ste Gen, pulsed on and off for miles, finally put something down just to my east, and then intensified again after it got past Centralia. I really believe topography plays a major role in limiting tornadogenesis for much of our region...there seem to be "hot spots" where tornadoes tend to develop...valleys, lakes, river bottoms and the open plains of S/Central IL. The storms that crossed the river to my W/SW developed weak rotation over the river valley, weakened as they hit the bluffs/higher elevations and then started to rotate consistently once they got out near Carlinville/Taylorville. I've watched this pattern countless times over the years. Sometimes we'll see weak tornadoes develop just off the river valley, like the EF1 that hit the neighbors place in 2017...but they seem pretty rare. |
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Post by weatherj on Mar 31, 2023 21:10:51 GMT -6
Nasty looking rogue supercell SE of Effingham. What a day... That's the same one that pulsed on and off from north of Ste Gen, right over the top of me, and then finally put something down along I-64 in Washington County.
I'm pretty sure judging by the pictures here on the S side of Salem, IL a tornado touched down. Structural and tree damage. I'm fine right where I live, but no power. |
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 31, 2023 21:49:25 GMT -6
From what I have seen... we have a better chance for tornadoes into the metro with west to east moving storms. Storms... like today coming out of the SW don't tend to do so well- maybe the small downslope coming out of the Ozarks.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 31, 2023 22:05:29 GMT -6
Just got back home. Long day of trying to be a safe chaser.
I don't know about Washington County, MO... but it sure sounds like there may have been a tornado on the south side of Salem IL.
The worst weather we encountered, by far, was that last line coming into downtown St. Louis. We were crossing the river and just as we got past Busch Stadium we got hit with every bit of 70 mph winds up on the elevated section of 64 west. It was blinding and blinding rain was flying by like a hurricane. He finally got off at the City Park stadium and that was something else. Some of the construction barriers (plastic ones) had been lofted up into the netting that surrounds the field...and was held up there by the wind until it subsided. That line went on to produce measured wind gusts of 73mph in Alton and 60-70 mph gusts across southern Illinois.
So why wasn't it even worse? I was having this discussion with our friends at the NWS via text message all evening...and the answer goes back to the hodographs. They were not curved enough... and favored more left moving supercells. Those left moving supercells created significant destructive interference. One would form and look great only to have the next one down south turn left and mess it up. It was a very messy storm mode. The hodographs looped out a bit more in Illinois (as was forecast) and that's where we ended up with the tornadoes. I also believe that the midday showers/convection in southeast Missouri disrupted things a bit too.
Time to get some rest and get ready for next week.
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