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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 31, 2023 22:24:53 GMT -6
Just got back home. Long day of trying to be a safe chaser. I don't know about Washington County, MO... but it sure sounds like there may have been a tornado on the south side of Salem IL. The worst weather we encountered, by far, was that last line coming into downtown St. Louis. We were crossing the river and just as we got past Busch Stadium we got hit with every bit of 70 mph winds up on the elevated section of 64 west. It was blinding and blinding rain was flying by like a hurricane. He finally got off at the City Park stadium and that was something else. Some of the construction barriers (plastic ones) had been lofted up into the netting that surrounds the field...and was held up there by the wind until it subsided. That line went on to produce measured wind gusts of 73mph in Alton and 60-70 mph gusts across southern Illinois. So why wasn't it even worse? I was having this discussion with our friends at the NWS via text message all evening...and the answer goes back to the hodographs. They were not curved enough... and favored more left moving supercells. Those left moving supercells created significant destructive interference. One would form and look great only to have the next one down south turn left and mess it up. It was a very messy storm mode. The hodographs looped out a bit more in Illinois (as was forecast) and that's where we ended up with the tornadoes. I also believe that the midday showers/convection in southeast Missouri disrupted things a bit too. Time to get some rest and get ready for next week. I’m not complaining lol. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 31, 2023 22:38:59 GMT -6
Id say thats a strong signal of the GEFS for something Tuesday  |
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 1, 2023 0:21:36 GMT -6
Wake up Tupelo
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Post by weatherj on Apr 1, 2023 6:14:52 GMT -6
Judging from my own view of driving through the area hardest hit here on the south side of town, I am convinced it was a tornado that came through that stretch. A very well defined west-southwest to east-northeast damage path with trees snapped, multiple structures damaged, and Casey's roof and sign were damaged. I am hearing of a possibile fatality, but that has not been confirmed and pray it is not correct.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 1, 2023 6:17:54 GMT -6
The thing with Tuesday..it could be overnight.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2023 6:54:51 GMT -6
I did notice some of the model soundings were showing a veer/back profile in the mid-levels, which tended to favor cell splits and left movers...definitely a messy setup around here.
On to the next one!
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sgdragons
Wishcaster
Posts: 145
Member is Online
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Post by sgdragons on Apr 1, 2023 7:07:42 GMT -6
Semi shocked our ground blind was still here this AM. Youth turkey numbers may be down this AM. Sheesh the wind has been brutal.
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Post by dschreib on Apr 1, 2023 7:24:29 GMT -6
Breezy out there. Good day to spray weeds or burn...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 1, 2023 7:26:29 GMT -6
at least for my experience since living here, this last system was definitely in the top 20 storm systems with the combo of wind, hail, and heavy rain. Less lightning and thunder then some storms, but made it a bit more 'enjoyable' and kept the nerves of the dogs down a bit. Props to the SPC for their greatest risk outlines as that seemed to work out well for them. Prayers to those that did get hit by the few massive tornadoes that did spawn, particularly Little Rock, North of Memphis, TN, and north of Springfield, IL. Next Tuesday night looks like a watcher for sure, but it's at night which has its pros and cons of course. One hand that would mean storms hit as instability drops due to loss of daytime heating, but on the other if the LLJ is screaming and there's high shear there will be the possibility of night time tornadoes overnight which isn't great when people are likely to be in bed. Winds have been absolutely howling early this morning. Winding down a bit now, but still gusty at times. Wonder how much limbs and branches got knocked down this time. Gonna be a clean up this weekend before likely having to do it again Wednesday in the aftermath of Tuesday Night into Wednesday AM's storms.
Also props to the system waiting until I got off work yesterday so that I could enjoy them at home!  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2023 7:32:44 GMT -6
Have to say, the SPC did a pretty bang up job with yesterday's forecast. They pretty well nailed the bi-modal distribution of the greatest tornado threat.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2023 7:35:09 GMT -6
Breezy out there. Good day to spray weeds or burn... I burned part of the garden off Friday. Of course, as soon as I set it afire, the wind kicked up and it really took off. Luckily, the ground was still pretty damp and it didn't get out of hand. But I was scurrying with a rake, lol. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2023 7:55:57 GMT -6
We lost power early this morning from the strong gradient winds but it came back on around 530. Surprised it didn't go out with that band that swept through just before sunset. I noticed the neighbors had a 20-30' white pine snapped off at the base from the S wind yesterday afternoon. This storm was definitely an efficient wind machine.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2023 8:47:42 GMT -6
CSU and SPC outlook for Tuesday  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 1, 2023 9:04:08 GMT -6
CSU and SPC outlook for Tuesday You can almost overlay the SPC image from yesterday on the CSU forecast. Especially the bimodal high risk. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2023 9:11:35 GMT -6
Oof...
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 1, 2023 9:31:16 GMT -6
Anyone think a day 3 moderate is coming in the morning?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2023 9:38:15 GMT -6
Anyone think a day 3 moderate is coming in the morning? It wouldn’t surprise me. I do have some questions about the strong cap and timing of the cold front here, but the parameter space is very favorable for strong to violent tornadoes across a huge area. |
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 1, 2023 9:40:52 GMT -6
I'm tend to be conservative-ish when it comes to forecasting high end severe weather. But yes, I think a D3 moderate is possible if not probable. Once the 12z GFS rolls out I'll explain my reasoning.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2023 10:05:18 GMT -6
This is some of the best tornado footage I have ever seen. From Iowa yesterday.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 1, 2023 10:08:54 GMT -6
I sketched out very approximately the overlap of high instability and high shear with vectors overlayed on the Tuesday afternoon GFS surface chart extrapolated out to the late evening hours.  If data continues to paint roughly this picture through tonight then a rare D3 moderate risk would be appropriate in my opinion for the following reasons: - Presence of strong EML everywhere Monday night Tuesday morning should cap off widespread early convection - Proper dry line, 60dm 12z-00z height falls, and stingy global model convection implies modest ascent (hints at convective mode) - Broad area with good balance of top tier severe ingredients (even area averaged soundings/hodographs are nasty) - Similarity and consistency with global models and ensembles |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2023 10:26:14 GMT -6
I'd say early indications would suggest that the tornado threat will be greater across MO with that setup. The initially veered low-level winds were definitely a factor yesterday across MO and even the Metro.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 1, 2023 10:48:40 GMT -6
We should probably hold off on judgement for any player who tries to catch a fly ball at Busch this afternoon…
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Post by mosue56 on Apr 1, 2023 11:06:31 GMT -6
Are the boys of summer on another station than Bally? Blues are on now and it lists the Cards on tonight!
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Apr 1, 2023 11:46:13 GMT -6
Are the boys of summer on another station than Bally? Blues are on now and it lists the Cards on tonight! It is on Bally Sports Midwest Extra. U-verse is channel 1747. |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Apr 1, 2023 12:44:29 GMT -6
This is some of the best tornado footage I have ever seen. From Iowa yesterday. That cow's thinking, I've seen this movie before, I'm getting outta here... |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 1, 2023 15:20:27 GMT -6
My weather radio never went off for the watches nor warnings yesterday. And when I was switching between channels. I just was hearing a high pitch tone.
I think it's time to get a new one. Lol
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Post by weatherj on Apr 1, 2023 19:30:42 GMT -6
NWS confirmed an EF1 with winds of 105 mph Friday night here in town. As much as I feel for anyone who suffered any damages, I'm very happy to say that there were no injuries or fatalities. That same cell which moved into marion county later ended up producing the TOR-E for Robinson, IL. Major damage from a multi-vortex tornado resulted.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Apr 1, 2023 20:55:02 GMT -6
NWS confirmed an EF1 with winds of 105 mph Friday night here in town. As much as I feel for anyone who suffered any damages, I'm very happy to say that there were no injuries or fatalities. That same cell which moved into marion county later ended up producing the TOR-E for Robinson, IL. Major damage from a multi-vortex tornado resulted. Glad you are ok !! That cell just kept getting stronger as it went east |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2023 22:07:35 GMT -6
Tuesday has the potential for multiple rounds of severe weather. The first would be from any discrete cells in the open warm sector. That's looking questionable, although the 00z GFS is pretty bullish on that idea. I do question how it's able to do that with such a strong CAP in place. The EML advecting into the area is stout.  The second round would be from the front itself. That will have better forcing, and the cap should be eroded some by then. That would likely be more of a linear than discrete storm mode. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 2, 2023 5:47:50 GMT -6
Timing will need to be a considerstion with the next event. I know there is a natural anxiousness following the big event Friday, but we have to keep a level head to evaluate the potentiallt favorable and unfavorable ingredients for a Tues/Wed system... and time of day is definitely a consideration for eastern MO and southwest IL.
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