Chris's Corner - Active March into March

Looks like we maybe heading into a 'Super El Nino' this Summer and into the fall and Winter. Not surprising how long we've been in La Nina. Question is how strong really and placement with the GFS showing a basin wide El Nino (and the strongest signal), while the Canadian shows a central based (Modoki El Nino) with a moderate signal. If we can get to a basin wide intense El Nino soon in 1-3 months Summer could be quite mild and wet but next winter will surely torch and probably be drier. Weaker central signal would mean a seasonable Summer, but possibly better Winter barring other factors.

I know Snowman, I was referring to the current map in our area, before I realized you posted the split in the enhanced. I apologize, we all have the threat, just lots depend on the cap.

Squall line seems to be the favored mode for the metro at this range.

Let’s see what today’s runs bring.


Also, keep the Super Nino away. No thanks

Looks like the NAM wants to hold off any convention until very late Tuesday night

It then swings a line of broken supercells through with PDS TOR soundings present

Not ideal

Even the UKMET has PDS TOR soundings late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning

Hey WEAX, that's a dandy smoker...who makes that?

Thanks. That looks really well made, something that would last 10-20 years or more if you took good care of it. I need to upgrade my little smoker...

The setup on Tuesday seems somewhat conditional for the area but potentially significant. Both the GFS and EURO show a disturbance lifting out of the Arklatex/Panhandle region that tracks across the area towards early evening. With a strong cap in place, that is going to keep much if any precip and cloudiness away during most of the day, allowing instability to build. If the mid-level cooling and subtle large-scale ascent is enough to break that cap before instability wanes a bit after dark, look out. We do come under the RER of a jetstreak in the S stream that may aid lift. Soundings show a S/SE surface wind that quickly veers to 60kts+ SWly in the mid-levels with some sickle shaped hodographs. If storms can fire with the 1500j/kg+ CAPE in place, they should have no problem rotating and the subtle forcing favors discrete mode initially until the stronger lift arrives from the upper trof nosing in well after dark and into Wed AM.

The SPC seems to think that capping may keep much of the warm sector convection free on Tuesday outside of the triple point...but this snippet kind of follows my thinking, that a few isolated to scattered supercells could erupt where the subtle forcing from that jetlet feature and some weak height falls/PVA overspread an unstable airmass across S/Central MO towards the MS river valley. That's a potential tinder box setup if storms can get going.

It looks like there might be a few different ways we could see severe storms on Tuesday.
- Storms initiating in a pre-frontal trough through mid-MO with discrete supercells as seen in some models
- Storms initiating along the dryline around the KS/MO border with discrete supercells though models are very stingy on this idea
- Storms initiating along the front as it catches the dryline in the NE/KS/MO vicinity forming into a QLCS which might be the most likely but far from slam dunk

Capping followed by decreasing instability certainly looks to be a mitigating factor especially the farther east or south you go in MO. So it could be any combination of those or NONE.

Just one take of one model, but the 3kNAM generates supercells in central MO Tuesday afternoon which struggle and fizzle. Presumably because the cap out ahead of them actually gets stronger as the day goes on. The trough is too far back west and we actually get subtle height rises with forecast soundings showing the EML sinking and warming by nearly 4C.

SPC did upgrade Tuesday to a moderate risk

Thunder and lightning off and on for the last 5 hours

Nah, they need to take Union completely out of any risk. Then it would be. 🥳😄