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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2023 8:56:52 GMT -6
Neither the NAM or 3km NAM have any convection in the moderate risk area tomorrow Very tricky forecast for tomorrow...gotta forecast the potential, but there's an almost equal chance that nothing really even develops. I'm still a bit intrigued by that corridor from S/central MO into W IL where the lead speed max/jetlet overspreads with subtle height falls/cooling and some PVA into the early evening...maybe that will be just enough to get storms going...but maybe it won't. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2023 8:57:58 GMT -6
The NAM seems to have a bit more ridging over us vs. globals tomorrow afternoon/early evening.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2023 8:58:45 GMT -6
Classic high failure mode setup.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2023 9:13:26 GMT -6
The 12Z HRRR is pretty anemic with convection as well.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 3, 2023 9:39:08 GMT -6
Cap wins! Cap wins!
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 3, 2023 9:48:03 GMT -6
On the other hand the FV3 is fairly active through the metro. Though with storms probably trying hard to fight through the cap UH tracks aren't that impressive.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2023 9:49:18 GMT -6
12Z GFS isn't completely devoid of convection. But it isn't really moderate risk worthy either.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 3, 2023 10:40:51 GMT -6
High ceiling, low floor setup across the MDT risk zone If something goes, it’ll be big  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 3, 2023 12:08:18 GMT -6
New Day 2 Most notable changes were another MDT to our southwest and the addition of a 10% # tornado into the metro.  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 3, 2023 12:09:46 GMT -6
Why don't they just connect the MOD risks again...
Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 3, 2023 12:10:39 GMT -6
Discussion talks about the overnight threat in our area:
...Northeast TX into AR and into MO - OVERNIGHT...
Confidence is increasing in the potential for rare and dangerous
overnight tornadoes and damaging winds, and a Moderate Risk has been
introduced for this region. The air mass will remain capped during
the day, as boundary-layer moisture builds. Steep lapse rates will
exist above the capping layer, which will not be particularly strong
overnight due to robust moisture. As the cold front approaches from
the west, the low-level jet will remain strong providing theta-e
advection through the night. Nocturnal storms are forecast to erupt
after 06Z, and perhaps closer to 08Z from southwest MO into western
AR and into northeast TX. Hodographs will strongly favor tornadic
supercells with effective SRH near 400 m2/s2. Further, steep lapse
rates aloft and ample instability will favor strong tornadoes, and a
long tracked tornado cannot be ruled out. This appears to be a rare
case where the front may act more like a dryline during the
overnight hours, with veering at 850 mb being more gradual. Capping
is most likely to limit the eastward extent of the threat for
southern areas near LA.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 3, 2023 12:32:18 GMT -6
Why don't they just connect the MOD risks again... Lol It certainly begs the question, do we really have the skill at D2 to identify a one county wide lower risk sandwiched between two higher risks? |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2023 12:35:42 GMT -6
I posted this on americanwx.com and so I'll just repost here as well...
12Z GFS isn't exactly what I'd call bullish with convection in SE IA, but it isn't devoid of it either.
The 12Z UKMET, OTOH, is actually pretty bullish with convection more so even than the 0Z cycle.
And the 12Z ECMWF continues to be bullish in this region.
I think given that I can't justify an argument against a moderate risk in the IA/IL border area.
...I'll add to this that the 12Z ICON had convection initiating as well. Maybe the CAMs haven't caught up yet?
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 3, 2023 12:42:42 GMT -6
UKMET is very generous with overnight convection in MO by the way. To add to that SPC snippet the overnight LCL values are very very low, like 300m or less (related to the low dewpoint depressions) owing to moisture advection combined with cooler nocturnal temp.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2023 14:20:56 GMT -6
I think most of the reports and surveys are done. The northern high risk zone could have been extended south and east.   |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 3, 2023 14:25:26 GMT -6
I think most of the reports and surveys are done. The northern high risk zone could have been extended south and east. There was wind damage in Mascoutah that I don't think was reported. Knocked the power out. Snapped three or four power poles just north of town near Schevee Park on the middle school side. |
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 3, 2023 14:28:00 GMT -6
I think most of the reports and surveys are done. The northern high risk zone could have been extended south and east. There was wind damage in Mascoutah that I don't think was reported. Knocked the power out. Snapped three or four power poles just north of town near Schevee Park on the middle school side.BDG... have them redo the map. |
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 3, 2023 14:28:38 GMT -6
Wouldn't underestimate the Wednesday morning threat.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 3, 2023 14:29:58 GMT -6
BDG... have them redo the map. Too funny 😁 |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 3, 2023 14:35:48 GMT -6
Im getting the sense that tornado sirens and phone alerts could go off in the middle of the night as we lay in our beds with visions of sugar plums dancing in our heads.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2023 15:13:16 GMT -6
Wouldn't underestimate the Wednesday morning threat. I know. What a confusing a setup. The NAM is hitting Wednesday morning pretty hard. The CAMS don't look impressive for any area and time really. And the globals seems to think the IA/IL/MO border area Tuesday afternoon and evening is where the show will be. Chris, I don't envy your position in communicating this to the public. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 3, 2023 15:15:58 GMT -6
Looks like our first 80*F day is under our belt. Might hit low-mid 80s tomorrow especially on the Missouri side. Might actually be 'hot'. Least winds will be a blowing.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2023 15:48:44 GMT -6
It seems like globals are still hinting at some potential for storms to develop roughly along the 67 corridor across MO up towards the Metro tomorrow evening, while the NAMs are very stingy pretty much across the board until Wed AM. Wording that potential to the general public will definitely be a tricky endeavor. The warm frontal zone across IA/N IL definitely seems like the prime area for storms to develop tomorrow afternoon/evening.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 3, 2023 18:46:39 GMT -6
Looks like our first 80*F day is under our belt. Might hit low-mid 80s tomorrow especially on the Missouri side. Might actually be 'hot'. Least winds will be a blowing. Don't think it made it 80 at Lambert today. Glenn Zimmermann said it only made it to 79. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2023 20:03:23 GMT -6
Post storm analysis has validated the aircraft recon data showing that Hurricane Ian was category 5 while off the coast of Florida. However, it did make landfall as a category 4. The damage estimate will be recorded as $110 billion making it the 3rd costliest hurricane behind Katrina and Harvey.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 3, 2023 20:45:55 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 3, 2023 20:51:46 GMT -6
Just going to say Wednesday morning is looking concerning
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 4, 2023 4:18:56 GMT -6
Here we go again. Probably be another possible high risk issued... Let's see what SPC does for Central, Illinois  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2023 5:22:05 GMT -6
Here we go again. Probably be another possible high risk issued... Let's see what SPC does for Central, Illinois I can't even get on SPC...guess all the chasers crashed the site, lol |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 4, 2023 5:26:55 GMT -6
There is no mention of severe in my spot forecast. A lot of upper and mid level dry air out there.
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