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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2023 5:46:57 GMT -6
Absolutely soupy this morning...Td is 66* here in Brighton with very heavy dew. Low-level clouds are ripping towards the north just off the deck. Today is going to be interesting to watch how it unfolds(or doesn't).
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2023 6:12:27 GMT -6
Short-range/CAM guidance shows very little activity in the warm sector and even the warm frontal zone until later this evening and overnight. The NAMs do show a decent impulse or two riding up through MO late this afternoon and early evening, but nothing develops. Today seems like a classic "wait and see" setup.
Coz is right about tomorrow morning though...models show SBCAPE near 2000j/kg ahead of the front with storms firing across S/Central MO and riding into the Metro. I remember a storm years ago that hit during the morning hours and did a lot of damage in the Alton/Godfrey area with several microbursts.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 4, 2023 6:32:38 GMT -6
I think all the talk of "Tuesday" will become oops,
"Wednesday" and people will be pissed. Again. Lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2023 6:34:30 GMT -6
Those people don't listen anyway...
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Post by bear1 on Apr 4, 2023 7:41:49 GMT -6
Those people don't listen anyway... whatd he say??? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2023 8:10:52 GMT -6
They don't get much more challenging than this in terms of forecasting severe weather because of the high impact POTENTIAL and the time of day some of this may happen... OVERNIGHT/EARLY AM. About all we can do is lay the potential threats on the table but acknowledge that nothing may happen at all...while double foot stomping the need to remain weather aware in case it does....because IF it does... it will be very bad in a few spots.
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Post by cardsnweather on Apr 4, 2023 8:15:34 GMT -6
Short term models are starting to get a little bullish with precip in area as we head into evening hours. Will be interesting to watch unfold.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 4, 2023 8:35:32 GMT -6
Sounds like the SPC is considering upgrading to high if confidence gets high enough
A vast area of at least marginal severe potential is evident from
the Upper Great Lakes north of the warm front -- where hail from
elevated thunderstorms will be the main concern -- to portions of
central/east TX tonight as convection grows near the cold front and
poses mainly a wind/hail threat. Two relative concentrations of
particularly intense and destructive tornado potential are apparent,
but still with enough uncertainties attached to preclude
unconditional categorical upgrade(s) at this outlook cycle.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 4, 2023 9:22:10 GMT -6
Definitely got the hot and muggies today. Ick.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 4, 2023 9:24:54 GMT -6
The HRRR is getting progressively more active late tonight with each run as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 4, 2023 9:53:26 GMT -6
Two clear areas of long track supercell potential on the HREF I wonder if the southern moderate risk will get extended into the metro on the next update  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 4, 2023 9:56:11 GMT -6
Stuff near Chicago heading straight for them that the models didn't pick up on. Already things have been lighting up especially well north of us.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2023 10:05:33 GMT -6
My take on all of this....
***ANOTHER DAY/NIGHT TO BE WEATHER AWARE***
***LOW CONFIDENCE BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS***
So…. they don't get much more challenging than this event in terms of forecasting severe weather because of the isolated high impact POTENTIAL and the time of day some of this may happen... OVERNIGHT/EARLY AM. About all I can do is lay the potential threats on the table but I must acknowledge there is a very real chance that little if anything may happen at all...while double foot stomping the need to remain weather aware in case it does happen!!!!! Because IF it does... it would get very rough in a few spots.
THE BACKGROUND DISCUSSION:
There are several parameters that strongly favor isolated intense thunderstorms with very large hail and possibly even strong tornadoes over Missouri…especially northern Missouri this afternoon and early evening. However, there is an equally strong capping inversion in the atmosphere that looks strong enough to completely, or nearly completely shut down storm development through today in our area. That being said, if storms do manage to break the cap, isolated, but very intense severe weather will be possible. The most likely areas for that to happen look to be across northern Missouri into Iowa late this afternoon into this evening along a northward advancing warm front…. with a secondary area developing overnight over southwest into south central Missouri. It is this later activity that has the greatest potential to impact our viewing area…generally south of I-70. There is also some potential for a third zone of storms to develop with the cold front that sweeps across the entire region around/between sunrise and 10am Wednesday.
This situation requires lots of watching, waiting and overall patience and understanding. The best action plan for the general public this afternoon through early Wednesday is to be weather aware, but go about your regular routines. Keep your phones nearby…set to receive weather alerts. Keep the weather radios on if you have them. Frequently check back for updates on the progress of the developments (or lack there of) tonight through Wednesday morning. This is a tough event to deal with from a public facing perspective. We want you to be watchful, but we don’t want to over alert/over warn. Best case, nothing happens and we go off to enjoy the rest of the week. I know that's what I'm hoping for!
Fox2Now #stlwx #mowx #ilwx
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Post by mosue56 on Apr 4, 2023 10:21:22 GMT -6
Do you guys know how fast the storm that’s causing the blizzard in the Dakotas is moving? Trying to advise a friend in southern Manitoba for travel to the Winnipeg airport later on this pm. It’s at Fargo now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2023 10:38:44 GMT -6
I'm a bit surprised the NAM isn't more bullish with convection developing across S/Central MO this evening...it shows CINH weakening towards sunset across this area with subtle height falls/PVA developing as the ridge axis shifts to the E. There's a zone of mid-level moistening on the charts...but the QPF output shows squat. This morning's RAP was hinting at some potential development down that way though and it seems like the HWRF is picking up on that too.
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Post by weatherj on Apr 4, 2023 10:40:19 GMT -6
What's crazy about the EF1 tornado that hit Salem on Friday evening is the path was only about 2 blocks north of which another tornado took in April of 1996.That tornado was an EF2 and damaged the fairgrounds heavily. Very odd when they take nearly the same path despite many years in between.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2023 10:53:35 GMT -6
Quite a few ~70* Td readings across the warm sector this morning...this is an unusually moist and unstable environment for this time of year.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 4, 2023 11:00:47 GMT -6
Two clear areas of long track supercell potential on the HREF I wonder if the southern moderate risk will get extended into the metro on the next update So far steady as she goes and no expansion |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 4, 2023 11:03:18 GMT -6
What's crazy about the EF1 tornado that hit Salem on Friday evening is the path was only about 2 blocks north of which another tornado took in April of 1996.That tornado was an EF2 and damaged the fairgrounds heavily. Very odd when they take nearly the same path despite many years in between. Same deal with the 2017 Perryville EF4 and 1996 EF3. Both late evening tornadoes as well. www.ozarksfirst.com/news/perryville-home-destroyed-in-tornado-damaged-in-1996-tornado/amp/ |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2023 12:05:21 GMT -6
There is a relative minimum of Tds over the western/central ozarks which likely speaks to the shallow nature of some of the western moisture. The better moisture is working in along and either side of the ozark plateau at this time. This may further contribute to maintaining instability further east into the night as storms intercept deeper moisture.
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Post by thechaser on Apr 4, 2023 12:08:14 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 4, 2023 12:21:35 GMT -6
I noticed the UKMET was showing an outbreak of discrete cells along the front late tonight Don’t know if I buy that, but that’s certainly a worst case scenario  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 4, 2023 12:30:48 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 4, 2023 12:30:57 GMT -6
Might not of hit 80 yesterday, but boy have we today! 83*F so far, and even 82*F in West Belleville/Cahokia Heights. Still a couple hours of heating to go too! Might get 85 today!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 4, 2023 12:32:20 GMT -6
Prime times for the metro for Storms look to be 10PM to 1AM, and again 5-9AM before the front clears by lunchtime if not a bit before.
10PM-1AM have the best chance for very large hail and possible violent tornadoes, while 5-9AM will be a mix with more wind damage and weaker tornadoes and marginal hail.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Apr 4, 2023 12:34:01 GMT -6
I noticed the UKMET was showing an outbreak of discrete cells along the front late tonight Don’t know if I buy that, but that’s certainly a worst case scenario Ill pass and take the next model run plz. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Apr 4, 2023 12:58:44 GMT -6
Some of the hail pictures coming out of Chicago are unreal.
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Post by ElburnDave on Apr 4, 2023 13:17:33 GMT -6
Some of the hail pictures coming out of Chicago are unreal. Had some quarter to golfball-size stones here, but I didn't take any pics. |
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Apr 4, 2023 13:24:22 GMT -6
Well, at least 1 severe storm got going out there SW of Sedalia
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Apr 4, 2023 13:29:48 GMT -6
Anybody else having an issue with storm tracks on RadarScope?
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