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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on May 1, 2023 0:31:14 GMT -6
Might start to get dark after sunset this evening. We will hv to see how that pans out. Looks progressive, though, and will only last about 10 hours at any location. What darkness we do get will likely be gone by sunrise. you and 920 nailed it. low and behold, the darkness was gone by sunrise. who would have thunk it? Also looks like it might get warmer as we head into the summer months. bllvwwxguy as more knowledge on that though. Was thinking we'd see some kind of ssw that could bring us snow in July, but I guess that's not going to happen, oh well. Guess we'll have to endure some hot temperatures maybe by the pool. When will it snow? I'm going to say February 30. Book it. |
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Post by dschreib on May 1, 2023 6:37:56 GMT -6
Usually don't do this, but I have a lot riding on a forecast for Highland/Grantfork area on the 13th. I know the pattern is trash right now, but as soon as an IMBY is possible, let 'er rip.
Ts and Ps for sunny, or at least no rain, about 75*, and a light breeze.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on May 1, 2023 8:13:42 GMT -6
He gave us the old head fake with predicting a cool summer, but we all knew a reference to 2012 was inevitable. Just as the Cardinals will inevitably start to win again at some point. Regression to the mean in all things. The difference in regard to the Cardinals though, is that they have a poor pitching staff, and a poor manager who doesn't know how to manage a pitching staff. Therefore, they will likely not start winning consistently any time soon, unless a change is made. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 1, 2023 13:42:32 GMT -6
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 1, 2023 14:37:21 GMT -6
𝐔𝐍𝐈𝐓: ISP Troop 8 𝐋𝐎𝐂𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍: Interstate 55 near Milepost 76, north of Farmersville, Montgomery County 𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄: May 1, 2023 at approximately 10:55 a.m. 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅 𝐒𝐘𝐍𝐎𝐏𝐒𝐈𝐒: Preliminary information indicates the following occurred: ISP Troops 6 and 8 responded to the above area for multiple crashes with injuries. Interstate 55 is currently shut down in both directions from milepost 63 to milepost 80. Visibility in the area is reported to be low due to blowing dust. Traffic is urged to seek alternate routes. At 10:55 a.m. there was a crash on northbound Interstate 55 at Milepost 76. At the same time, there were numerous crashes on southbound Interstate 55 at Milepost 76. Approximately 20 commercial motor vehicles and 40 to 60 passenger cars were involved. This includes two truck tractor semi-trailers that caught fire as a result of the crashes. At this time, we have reports of more than 30 people being transported to the hospital and multiple fatalities. The cause of the crash is due to excessive winds blowing dirt from farm fields across the highway leading to zero visibility. This information is still preliminary and the ISP continues to investigate this crash. We will have more information at our next briefing at 4:30 p.m. |
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Post by oakvilleerv on May 1, 2023 17:58:00 GMT -6
Just saw Glenn’s graphic depicting the low contributing to our winds. Question: How do wind speeds vary from the center of the low to the outskirts? Thanks?
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 1, 2023 18:22:45 GMT -6
Just saw Glenn’s graphic depicting the low contributing to our winds. Question: How do wind speeds vary from the center of the low to the outskirts? Thanks? Wind isn't a function of distance from the low, it's a matter of how close a high and low are. The closer or stronger they are, the tighter the pressure gradient and the faster the wind speed |
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Post by oakvilleerv on May 1, 2023 18:34:45 GMT -6
Thank you John! I get that. What had me wondering was that some of the higher wind speeds were recorded near Spgfld, IL, which seemed to be roughly half way between the low and the outskirts… Thanks again!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on May 1, 2023 18:41:44 GMT -6
He gave us the old head fake with predicting a cool summer, but we all knew a reference to 2012 was inevitable. Just as the Cardinals will inevitably start to win again at some point. Regression to the mean in all things. The difference in regard to the Cardinals though, is that they have a poor pitching staff, and a poor manager who doesn't know how to manage a pitching staff. Therefore, they will likely not start winning consistently any time soon, unless a change is made. They actually had the exact same record for a stretch last season, but it was mid season so nobody really cared. They had another stretch in May 2019. Hard to watch, but they’ll likely still be competing for a wild card spot. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 1, 2023 19:10:27 GMT -6
Thank you John! I get that. What had me wondering was that some of the higher wind speeds were recorded near Spgfld, IL, which seemed to be roughly half way between the low and the outskirts… Thanks again! The biggest factor with wind velocities today was deep mixing that caused higher winds aloft to descend towards the surface. Those winds were maximized across central IL where the topography favors it. |
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Post by oakvilleerv on May 1, 2023 19:29:32 GMT -6
Thnx Btn! I appreciate your response!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 1, 2023 21:24:32 GMT -6
𝐔𝐍𝐈𝐓: ISP Troop 8 𝐋𝐎𝐂𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍: Interstate 55 near Milepost 76, north of Farmersville, Montgomery County 𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄: May 1, 2023 at approximately 10:55 a.m. 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅 𝐒𝐘𝐍𝐎𝐏𝐒𝐈𝐒: Preliminary information indicates the following occurred: ISP Troops 6 and 8 responded to the above area for multiple crashes with injuries. Interstate 55 is currently shut down in both directions from milepost 63 to milepost 80. Visibility in the area is reported to be low due to blowing dust. Traffic is urged to seek alternate routes. At 10:55 a.m. there was a crash on northbound Interstate 55 at Milepost 76. At the same time, there were numerous crashes on southbound Interstate 55 at Milepost 76. Approximately 20 commercial motor vehicles and 40 to 60 passenger cars were involved. This includes two truck tractor semi-trailers that caught fire as a result of the crashes. At this time, we have reports of more than 30 people being transported to the hospital and multiple fatalities. The cause of the crash is due to excessive winds blowing dirt from farm fields across the highway leading to zero visibility. This information is still preliminary and the ISP continues to investigate this crash. We will have more information at our next briefing at 4:30 p.m. I drove from STL up to Eastern Iowa for work today and hit that mess south of Springfield. We had to take an hour and a half detour because so much of 55 was closed down. We hit several spots of blowing dust where visibility’s dropped dramatically. Never seen anything like that around here. My heart goes out to everyone involved in the wreck. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 1, 2023 21:49:35 GMT -6
The last time I traveled up 55 I hit a literal salt storm near Springfield where there was so much salt on the roadway it became airborn as a huge cloud and caused lowered visibility. Craziest thing I've seen next to the refinery effect snowfall along 255 at South Roxana in 2013.
What happened today is truly tragic and a freak event.
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Post by mosue56 on May 2, 2023 6:25:07 GMT -6
We drove back from the Louisville area after
Visiting my bro and fam and decided to try the southern KY route to avoid Louisville and STL as we dropped off our camper at our cabin near Bonne Terre before heading up to Festus. The wind wasn’t too bad down that way. Now we know why!
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on May 2, 2023 7:49:31 GMT -6
The difference in regard to the Cardinals though, is that they have a poor pitching staff, and a poor manager who doesn't know how to manage a pitching staff. Therefore, they will likely not start winning consistently any time soon, unless a change is made. They actually had the exact same record for a stretch last season, but it was mid season so nobody really cared. They had another stretch in May 2019. Hard to watch, but they’ll likely still be competing for a wild card spot. Yeah, with so many spots, they'll keep our interest. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 2, 2023 8:54:13 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 2, 2023 9:19:59 GMT -6
Heh...we'll see. Timmer talking about "drought busting" rains developing this month across the Central US...I'm not sure about that. Severe weather definitely looks to pick up the pace into next week and mid-month though.
I think the MCS train is going to favor the Lakes and Upper Midwest myself. There continues to be a strong trend of persistent ridging across the Central US. That may put us on the edge of the firing zone.
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 2, 2023 14:23:29 GMT -6
55 is shutdown as a precaution again. Same location as yesterday.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 2, 2023 16:50:53 GMT -6
Why were there no red flag warnings hoisted today? Humidity <20% with 30-40mph winds after days with no rain...seems like a no brainer. Hearing of brush fires locally.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 2, 2023 17:20:23 GMT -6
Heh...we'll see. Timmer talking about "drought busting" rains developing this month across the Central US...I'm not sure about that. Severe weather definitely looks to pick up the pace into next week and mid-month though. I think the MCS train is going to favor the Lakes and Upper Midwest myself. There continues to be a strong trend of persistent ridging across the Central US. That may put us on the edge of the firing zone. Seems like the models are still waffling about how Summer is going to play out. I will say this, I don't see it being a replay of the last 2 Summers. Yes, there will be some heat (It's Summer afterall), but it certainly looks more active. The fact that the ridging seems to be weakening in the models as we progress through May is hopeful and if the -PNA does fall, then we've got a shot for a Summer pattern I haven't seen in several years if not longer, one with the heat close by, but not overhead and a northwesterly flow bringing in those noctural MCS clusters. Not every night, but every 2-3 nights possibly. How this month plays out will set the stage for what emerges as we go through time. Even the weather channel isn't going all in on the heat east of the Mississippi River, surprisingly AccuNot hasn't come out with their forecast yet. Must be really stumped with this one. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 2, 2023 18:57:33 GMT -6
It's gonna be tough for the -PDO/PNA to break down with a strong +NPO...the developing -ENSO should help, but it may be a slow process breaking down the current SST pattern.
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Post by bdgwx on May 3, 2023 9:10:58 GMT -6
I'm sure many of are you are aware of the record smashing global average SST event that is ongoing. It looks like it peaked at 4.7σ on April 23rd. That is a 1-in-700,000+ event. And that happened without an El Nino. Yikes!
Anyway, obvious the global circulation pattern is getting rocked pretty hard right now. The transition from La Nina to El Nino is occurring at near record pace. It's always hard to figure out what effect this will have on our weather since we are in an area with little to no correlation with ENSO phases. I will say that the last two transitions from La Nina to El Nino occurring at a similar pace resulted in a mild summer for us. Of course, a sample size of 2 is nearly useless. But we can hope.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 4, 2023 3:02:46 GMT -6
Models seem to really be backing off on any meaningful rain tomorrow-Friday on the 00z and 06z. Especially for areas along and north of hwy 70 in Missouri.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 4, 2023 6:21:19 GMT -6
Models seem to really be backing off on any meaningful rain tomorrow-Friday on the 00z and 06z. Especially for areas along and north of hwy 70 in Missouri. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Have I mentioned that I'm worried about this summer being hot and dry? |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 4, 2023 9:37:10 GMT -6
Models seem to really be backing off on any meaningful rain tomorrow-Friday on the 00z and 06z. Especially for areas along and north of hwy 70 in Missouri. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Have I mentioned that I'm worried about this summer being hot and dry? Yes you did. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 4, 2023 9:51:50 GMT -6
I am going to go out on a limb and forecast an average summer.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on May 4, 2023 10:14:00 GMT -6
I am going to go out on a limb and forecast an average summer. Bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it shakes out. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 4, 2023 11:22:12 GMT -6
Yeah models say maybe some rain next week sometime... Maybe. Perhaps we'll get that bone dry May afterall. Looks like some Gnarly ridging now setting up as well. Here comes the reality check!
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Post by cozpregon on May 4, 2023 12:57:01 GMT -6
As the ridging develops... some ridge running shortwaves may kick off some storms Sunday & Monday- could see some severe especially Monday.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 4, 2023 15:05:31 GMT -6
As the ridging develops... some ridge running shortwaves may kick off some storms Sunday & Monday- could see some severe especially Monday. The 00z Ukie was bullish with this into the week with nearly daily complexes impacting the region...might be a little overdone but there's hope. |
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