Chris's Corner - Conditional Risk for Isolated Severe Storms

It looks like the surface smoke should clear out tomorrow and the upper level smoke will clear out on Monday. I certainly would not be expecting pristine blue skies next week though, but it should be better than this past week.

Seeing forecasts for highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s next week...not sure it'll be that warm looking at the large-scale pattern. The ridge setting up across the NE and a cut-off across the SE favors E/SE flow. I think those overnight lows are a good 5-8* too warm...model output has consistently shown a warm bias here lately.

I'm also not seeing any major heat waves in the foreseeable future...ensemble means show large-scale troffing getting established across the E half of the US towards the end of the month.

Basically, seasonable high temps overall with relatively cool nights being favored. It does look dry after tomorrow's rain, which looks like a good bet for widespread soakers as a convectively enhanced mid-level low traverses the region during the later half of the day. There could be a few stronger storms around, especially across the S counties where shear is a bit stronger.

Surprised the NWS trimmed back POPs to 50% tomorrow...rain looks like a solid bet for much if not all of the area with potential for heavy rainfall just north of the mid-level low/MCV track. PWATs are progged to be close to 2" with high freezing levels/WCD.

Hope that spin coming up 44 sparks some storms later

The mid-level low tracks right across or just S of the Metro...the GFS is a far S outlier.  Hard to imagine the Metro and northern suburbs not getting rain and storms.  Short-range models do look a bit stingy but I don't think that'll be the case.

Crazy that the radar looks like almost a carbon copy of last week with a cluster of heavy showers and storms near COU. The severe drought out there is taking another hit.

Looks like the Radar is lighting up closer to the Metro now with a band of showers and a few storms forming southwest heading northeastward.

Had a nice looking storm heading right at us and then poof it went away

Well, I have shot up to 87* from a forecast Hi of 82. Hopefully that little bit of extra heat will trigger some rain/showers/t-storms this afternoon. So glad my wife watered yesterday and the day before. I kept telling her it was going to rain starting late Sat night and all day Sun. This just gives her more fuel to NOT listen to me.  Looks like some showers/storms to my west starting to fill in. Fingers crossed 7 miles west if De Soto, recently nicknamed, The Little Sahara.

Missing everything. At .2 for the last 30+ days now. Brutal.

Looks like a wet afternoon/evening as the low spins across the area

Finally had a good downpour here. Feel sorry for all the kids at the sports park, apparently the park is packed with baseball, soccer, and lacrosse games going on.

Nada