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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jun 23, 2023 11:10:42 GMT -6
Not looking forward to coming home to this hot weekend 🥵
It's been about 65° every day up here in Ketchikan Alaska gets down to about 55 at night.
The fishing and crabbing have been great!
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Post by amstilost on Jun 23, 2023 17:00:16 GMT -6
Nice pics DeerKiller, it is a bit 'toasty' today.
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Post by amstilost on Jun 23, 2023 17:02:15 GMT -6
Can anyone explain what has changed so drastically in roughly 7-8 hours? I looked at the forecast this morning and was pretty sure it said 80% chance of rain for Saturday. I get home today and it's down to 50% chance Sat. night. I was looking at temps for tomorrow just a minute ago and it's now down to 40% chance. WTH
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 23, 2023 17:44:56 GMT -6
There's a CHANCE of an MCS moving through tomorrow night, though the consensus is it stays mostly north. We'll see. Rain chances will waiver some more I'm sure, I wouldn't expect more than scattered coverage though. Certainly won't help with the drought much.
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Post by amstilost on Jun 23, 2023 18:10:50 GMT -6
Thanks Snowman, I guess I was not looking at the 36 hours of a chance of precip as uncertainty in timing of the possible MCS event. We need the rain 7 miles west of De Soto pretty bad, like most everyone else I'm sure.
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Post by REB on Jun 24, 2023 8:34:36 GMT -6
Weeding, watering and mowing done. Not a comfortable morning.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jun 24, 2023 8:36:53 GMT -6
This Is Miserable 🌞 🥵 😂
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 24, 2023 10:46:43 GMT -6
Ran the weed eater for a couple hours this morning...man it's a hot one today.
Looks like some high-based echoes out E of KC on KSTL...if the heating can erode the CINH this afternoon and early evening there could be a few pretty intense but likely isolated storms/supercells that develop.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 24, 2023 11:31:54 GMT -6
Big RRFS fan  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 24, 2023 11:51:24 GMT -6
Definitely a chance clusters develop across IA/N MO and congeal into an MCS that feeds on the instability pool to the south.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 24, 2023 14:05:10 GMT -6
But... "confidence is lowering in thunderstorms developing " per the LSX NWS.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 24, 2023 15:37:36 GMT -6
The latest hrrr is now showing a pretty decent line moving through……. The RAP is next to nothing
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 24, 2023 16:49:05 GMT -6
But... "confidence is lowering in thunderstorms developing " per the LSX NWS. My chips are on the drought prevailing. Love to wake up to some storms but doubt much will happen especially for the southern 2/3rds of the area including the metro. More a northern counties thing at this point. Then of course farther south and east of us tomorrow. Next week looking drier and warmer again as well. What a surprise! (Not) |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 24, 2023 18:08:05 GMT -6
Hrrr really needs to be correct tonight
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 24, 2023 18:20:00 GMT -6
Hrrr really needs to be correct tonight Not much of a cap out there... hopefully it is correct |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 24, 2023 20:12:00 GMT -6
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jun 24, 2023 20:50:58 GMT -6
Fox2 futurecast pulled the line dropping down like Lucy pulling the football.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jun 24, 2023 23:00:51 GMT -6
I guess that’s that..
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 25, 2023 4:59:57 GMT -6
If we got any rain I didn't hear it. It couldn't have been much. :-(
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2023 5:53:21 GMT -6
So much for that...looks like Hannibal and Quincy got hit like they always do.
Hope we can catch a ridge runner or two this week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2023 7:06:01 GMT -6
Absolute pea soup out there this morning...82/75*
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 25, 2023 7:13:18 GMT -6
Sadly the RAP nailed it and the HRRR was out to lunch …… of course all the models had it blowing up to our east which verified
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Post by REB on Jun 25, 2023 7:39:33 GMT -6
So disappointed.
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Post by amstilost on Jun 25, 2023 8:08:29 GMT -6
Not trying to 'bash' the NWS, but please, someone help me to understand how their messaging comes out. Like I had posted earlier, I was at 80% chance of rain for Saturday a few days ago, then was narrowed down to 60% Sat. night, then down to 40%, then back up to 50% chance. Looking at Storm Total Precip a cell did die out just west of Grubville overnight, just to my northwest. It would have come close to me if it held together. Is this a factor of the NWS getting 'too cute' as has been alluded to on here before, or is this just a much harder 'meso' type situation where I am putting more emphasis on '80% chance of rain' and pinning my hopes on that because it is so stinkin dry around the area?
Edit: I just noticed a 40% chance of rain Tues. and a 50% chance on Fri. These must be the 'ridge runners' Brtn was mentioning. Hopefully these go up in percentage as we get closer.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 25, 2023 9:06:42 GMT -6
It's summer . Any rain is going to be scattered unless it's the remnants of a tropical system . Nws always said the best coverage was north of i70. I would always take the percentages with a grain of salt. Some will get rain, many wont.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2023 9:34:05 GMT -6
Last night's setup never warranted high POPs, IMO. It was very conditional, not a slam dunk at all.
That RRFS model seems to be consistently overcooked from what I've seen.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 25, 2023 9:44:25 GMT -6
Last night's setup never warranted high POPs, IMO. It was very conditional, not a slam dunk at all. That RRFS model seems to be consistently overcooked from what I've seen. Wednesday Night into Thursday do warrant a watch out. Several models pretty consistent about 2-3 MCS traveling down the area especially the metro area and points southwest. Also a system over the upcoming weekend. GFS still playing the drought card but the Euro and especially the ICON have been somewhat uniform about an MCS train chugging through the area.
Got some Bermuda Grass planted (from seed) in the backyard and fencing it off away from the dogs and it's a sauna out there. Too bad the heat relief is brief but that's to be expected.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 25, 2023 12:06:39 GMT -6
Thursday and Friday per the GFS and GEM could be the hottest since 2012 with 27-30*C 850MB heights with downslope winds off the Ozark Plateau. I could see 110s if the dewpoint depressions occur. Our first Excessive Heat Warning seems almost assured this week! If we get to 110*F I'll have to take it in. Not often we get that hot. How thanks to Climate change it's becoming a 5-10 year event of what used to be up to a century to experience.
Oh and GFS still dry as a bone the next 2 weeks. Rain chances return only when the Bermuda High backs up bring southerly flow towards the middle of July. GEM not much better but does show some rain Saturday, not much though. ICON seems to be standing alone on the MCS train this week. Euro still coming through.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2023 13:07:29 GMT -6
My gut tells me the ridge is gonna get knocked back S/SW further than what models are showing at this range later this coming week...but it'll depend on the timing and strength of the ridge running shortwaves/MCVs and their associated outflows.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 25, 2023 13:30:57 GMT -6
Upper 90s and windy just feels wrong
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