|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 9, 2023 12:43:11 GMT -6
While we have calm weather wise. Just a general thought. When the 4th of July is in the middle of the week like this. Why not have official celebrations the weekend before the 4th and after the 4th. I support having official celebrations right on the 4th, but additional celebrations the weekend before and the weekend after would be nice as well. Great idea. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 9, 2023 12:50:01 GMT -6
qpf on both euro and gfs continue to look pretty intense this upcoming week across the region, especially along I44. There is a relative minima that is about a stones throw NNW from Brighton, IL; but for the rest of us, a lot of consistency in a 2+ inch rainfall, with much more more just to the SW of St. Louis.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 9, 2023 14:10:16 GMT -6
It would be a little more convincing if they gave better chances through the whole period.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 9, 2023 14:50:34 GMT -6
qpf on both euro and gfs continue to look pretty intense this upcoming week across the region, especially along I44. There is a relative minima that is about a stones throw NNW from Brighton, IL; but for the rest of us, a lot of consistency in a 2+ inch rainfall, with much more more just to the SW of St. Louis. I'll believe it when I see it at this point...but the pattern would seem to support an MCS or two traversing the region Wed-Fri |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Jul 9, 2023 20:51:38 GMT -6
NAMs 850 fgen is impressive Wednesday evening  |
|
|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jul 9, 2023 20:55:20 GMT -6
For those that are newbs and cannot read the maps, what does that mean? (and I mean me, I have no clue what that map is  |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Jul 9, 2023 21:11:53 GMT -6
The colors are temperature advection... the reddish colors shows where that is more pronounced.
The wind barbs are the 850mb winds- down by Rolla you see 45kts SW winds... while in Alton you see a 20kt wind from the east. Where the winds collide- and where the temperature advection is more pronounced... is where the biggest lift will be for heavy rain. This actually reminds of the setup last year.
The area is where the fgen- frontogenic forcing best occurs.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 9, 2023 21:42:19 GMT -6
I think tweet embeds are working again
Anyway, there is 95° water off the coast of Florida
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jul 10, 2023 12:05:31 GMT -6
Jet stream is poised to ramp up through area between the strong southwestern US upper level ridge and deep central Canadian upper level low. Between Wed-Sat could be a rather active period. Potential for both moderate instability and moderate shear puts severe weather on the table for anything that does get going. Take it with a grain of salt but the GFS has disturbances in the flow kicking off big honkin MCSs through Missouri each night.
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 10, 2023 13:39:24 GMT -6
Jet stream is poised to ramp up through area between the strong southwestern US upper level ridge and deep central Canadian upper level low. Between Wed-Sat could be a rather active period. Potential for both moderate instability and moderate shear puts severe weather on the table for anything that does get going. Take it with a grain of salt but the GFS has disturbances in the flow kicking off big honkin MCSs through Missouri each night. Large D3 slight risk centered on the region. Rock n roll |
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Jul 10, 2023 16:24:30 GMT -6
That Fox2 Forecast at 5 didn’t look like we were going to get much Wednesday.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jul 10, 2023 19:13:11 GMT -6
I think tweet embeds are working again Anyway, there is 95° water off the coast of Florida Much of the Atlantic is experiencing a marine heat wave. It's not clear why this is happening. The hypothesis I have seen are 1) marine shipping sulfur emission reductions 2) reduced Saharan dust 3) Hunga-Tonga and 4) the record smashing planetary energy imbalance.     |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 10, 2023 19:58:06 GMT -6
What goes into the “energy imbalance?” Can you explain it to me as if I was 5?
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jul 10, 2023 20:11:50 GMT -6
What goes into the “energy imbalance?” Can you explain it to me as if I was 5? The difference between the amount of energy arriving to the earth from the sun and the amount returning to space. |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 11, 2023 8:08:04 GMT -6
SPC day 2 outlook features a 15% hatched for wind threat from KC through the metro east with the hatched risk for hail centered on KC and northwest MO. Looks like they are leaning towards an MCS developing out that way and moving down 70. Still a watcher.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Jul 11, 2023 8:50:04 GMT -6
Yard mowed. Bring on the rain.
for the life of me I can never remember how to insert a picture using Imgur. Anyone want to re-educate me?
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 11, 2023 10:01:39 GMT -6
Yard mowed. Bring on the rain. for the life of me I can never remember how to insert a picture using Imgur. Anyone want to re-educate me? click the share button, scroll down to Imgur Copy url. then on the board, click on insert image. Paste URL. |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jul 11, 2023 11:04:39 GMT -6
Not surprised to see that the start of the rain, initially after 8am on Wed. morning is now put off until after 8pm....WTH,
when I just went back to make sure I was correct it is now showing a 20% chance before 2pm on Wed. when it just had mostly sunny. What is going on?
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jul 11, 2023 11:10:39 GMT -6
Yard mowed. Bring on the rain. for the life of me I can never remember how to insert a picture using Imgur. Anyone want to re-educate me? I have this issue every time. On Imgur when the pic is selected the options appear to the right. It should be the second option that says 'Direct Link' above it and the code ends in .jpg. I figured I would post a 'nostalgia' pic from 1/25/23.   |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jul 11, 2023 11:35:51 GMT -6
Also, after you click 'Copy' go to MTW post and click on the 'Reply' button in top right corner. Then find the 'Insert Image' button and press it. A box will appear with http highlighted in blue. Just press 'Control' and 'V' on your keyboard to paste the link on that line. Click on the line below if you want to add alternative text to the link. I never see the Alternative Text on the pics. That only seems to work when pasting links, for me anyway.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Jul 11, 2023 11:40:48 GMT -6
My plumeria.  |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jul 11, 2023 12:16:46 GMT -6
Beautiful pic. My wife and I had never heard of plumeria. Her favorite color too. Plant?, flower?, hard to keep alive?, long lasting flowers?, DROUGHT tolerant?. The ditch line along Hwy H is peppered with chickory. Each morning has new flowers and they are gone by the end of the day. Beautiful blue though. We have some marigold, zenia, and snap dragons putting on an amazing show alonside the various plantings in the garden.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Jul 11, 2023 13:15:08 GMT -6
Beautiful pic. My wife and I had never heard of plumeria. Her favorite color too. Plant?, flower?, hard to keep alive?, long lasting flowers?, DROUGHT tolerant?. The ditch line along Hwy H is peppered with chickory. Each morning has new flowers and they are gone by the end of the day. Beautiful blue though. We have some marigold, zenia, and snap dragons putting on an amazing show alonside the various plantings in the garden. Tropical. Found in Hawaii. I bought the start at the French market in New Orleans. You root a bare stem. Mine are over 6 ft tall but I have failed at propagating new ones. They lose all of their leaves over the winter in my sunroom. www.gardeningknowhow.com/ornamental/flowers/plumeria/growing-plumeria.htm |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jul 11, 2023 14:44:02 GMT -6
I feel like we are going to get missed to the north tomorrow and then the northern outflow will cause the mcs to dive south across the ozarks instead of east. But thats my 2 cents
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 11, 2023 16:29:13 GMT -6
NAM is still aggressive with the MCS tomorrow evening...the strong region of Fgen/Mcon sets up roughly along the MO river
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jul 11, 2023 18:56:12 GMT -6
Beautiful pic. My wife and I had never heard of plumeria. Her favorite color too. Plant?, flower?, hard to keep alive?, long lasting flowers?, DROUGHT tolerant?. The ditch line along Hwy H is peppered with chickory. Each morning has new flowers and they are gone by the end of the day. Beautiful blue though. We have some marigold, zenia, and snap dragons putting on an amazing show alonside the various plantings in the garden. Tropical. Found in Hawaii. I bought the start at the French market in New Orleans. You root a bare stem. Mine are over 6 ft tall but I have failed at propagating new ones. They lose all of their leaves over the winter in my sunroom. www.gardeningknowhow.com/ornamental/flowers/plumeria/growing-plumeria.htmGreat info on that link, thanks. Not sure if we will try that or not. We don't have a dedicated sunroom in the house. |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jul 11, 2023 19:01:27 GMT -6
WPC has the Excessive Rain 15% areas west of STL on Day 2 and SW of STL on Day 3. The 12z Euro just about screws most of the viewing area through noon on Friday. I hope it is wrong. Even GFS has backed way off with amounts for us. My pond has to be 24-30" low and no 'obvious' leaks. I need some decent, not flooding, rain.
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 11, 2023 20:53:49 GMT -6
WPC has the Excessive Rain 15% areas west of STL on Day 2 and SW of STL on Day 3. The 12z Euro just about screws most of the viewing area through noon on Friday. I hope it is wrong. Even GFS has backed way off with amounts for us. My pond has to be 24-30" low and no 'obvious' leaks. I need some decent, not flooding, rain. Reading their discussion, the slight is where they think more than 2 inches will fall. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 11, 2023 21:30:27 GMT -6
The NAM would support heavy rainfall with backbuilding storms...the EURO says "what MCS" *shrug*
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 11, 2023 21:35:56 GMT -6
I see the 00z NAM now tracks the MCS centroid across Central/SW MO leaving the Metro in the prime split territory.
Lock it in...
|
|
