Chris's Corner - Conditional Risk for Isolated Severe Storms

The MCS that has been the focus of much attention is expected to

form near northwest Missouri by the early evening and drop southward

through western Missouri along an instability gradient. Where

exactly it tracks will depend on the location of the gradient. While

guidance is placing this gradient to our southwest and largely

outside of our forecast area, this depends on the influx of moisture

and instability into the region today. If the gradient is further

east, the MCS will move through a greater portion of the forecast

area. As it stands the MCS is most likely to move through western

Missouri with potential impact to central and southeastern Missouri.

As the MCS moves through Missouri this evening, additional, elevated

convection will initiate across areas mainly south of the I-70

corridor as the LLJ noses into the forecast area. As mentioned in

previous forecasts, convection is expected to be progressive enough

to mitigate widespread flooding concerns. However, locally heavy

rainfall and localized flooding is possible with stronger

thunderstorms and if training thunderstorms develop under the

influence of the LLJ. Flooding is of greater concern within the MCS

where HREF LPMM guidance indicates the potential for 5-7 inches of

rain as a worst case scenario mainly outside of our CWA.