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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jul 17, 2023 14:57:07 GMT -6
Radar indicated that the heaviest returns probably were a bit SW of Belleville.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 17, 2023 15:03:25 GMT -6
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 17, 2023 15:58:12 GMT -6
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 17, 2023 15:59:29 GMT -6
Fearless leader is here as well!  |
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Post by REB on Jul 17, 2023 16:07:13 GMT -6
Thanks John G for the perspective.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 17, 2023 16:24:15 GMT -6
Tomorrow's setup is sort of reminiscent of last July's FF event with a boundary draped along/near the MO river valley and a LLJ aimed nearly perpendicular to it ahead of a strong disturbance rippling through. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 17, 2023 16:38:39 GMT -6
Who else is ready for a break from these storms.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 17, 2023 16:53:00 GMT -6
Who else is ready for a break from these storms. Literally no one |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 17, 2023 17:03:25 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 17, 2023 17:04:20 GMT -6
Tomorrow's setup is sort of reminiscent of last July's FF event with a boundary draped along/near the MO river valley and a LLJ aimed nearly perpendicular to it ahead of a strong disturbance rippling through. Is this the one that caused all the flooding near Mid Rivers? |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 17, 2023 17:06:58 GMT -6
Who else is ready for a break from these storms. Literally no one I am. Here is the easily seen damage on my brand new roof that was put on in early June.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 17, 2023 17:13:49 GMT -6
Ok, maybe a few...I'm not one of those few, lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 17, 2023 17:15:18 GMT -6
Tomorrow's setup is sort of reminiscent of last July's FF event with a boundary draped along/near the MO river valley and a LLJ aimed nearly perpendicular to it ahead of a strong disturbance rippling through. Is this the one that caused all the flooding near Mid Rivers? Yes, the one that dropped double digit rainfall. Let's hope this isn't a repeat performance...but training heavy storms would be welcomed IMBY |
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Post by amstilost on Jul 17, 2023 17:44:29 GMT -6
I certainly didn't want severe weather with this cell going through Central Jefferson County but I sure thought I was going to get more rain than I got.🤔🤔
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 17, 2023 17:59:04 GMT -6
Is this the one that caused all the flooding near Mid Rivers? Yes, the one that dropped double digit rainfall. Let's hope this isn't a repeat performance...but training heavy storms would be welcomed IMBY Oh definitely here too. Just not double digits. |
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Jul 17, 2023 19:17:00 GMT -6
Farmers need the rain - keep it coming.....
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 17, 2023 19:32:52 GMT -6
Far July, this is one stout NW flow pattern That ridge is stubbornly parked over the southwest. It's good for us, but bad for them. Phoenix is now at 17 consecutive days at >= 110 F. The record is currently 18 days so that is going to get broken easily. And in looking at ensembles I wouldn't eliminate the possibility that they can hit that mark everyday in July. Both the ECMWF and GFS go 600 DM on them next week. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 17, 2023 19:45:55 GMT -6
Farmers need the rain - keep it coming..... I'm at 3.21 for the month. 1.13 of which fell today. Is there a reliable LHR (liquid hail ratio)? Lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 17, 2023 20:50:00 GMT -6
Models are showing PWATs exceeding 2" tomorrow evening along the boundary with a 35-40kt LLJ nosing into it. Ripe setup for heavy rainfall. The NAM wants to shunt the boundary further south behind the early day complex that crosses MO while the globals are further NE into the Metro. Not sure which seems more realistic...we'll have to see how that cluster behaves tomorrow.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 17, 2023 21:46:56 GMT -6
Models are showing PWATs exceeding 2" tomorrow evening along the boundary with a 35-40kt LLJ nosing into it. Ripe setup for heavy rainfall. The NAM wants to shunt the boundary further south behind the early day complex that crosses MO while the globals are further NE into the Metro. Not sure which seems more realistic...we'll have to see how that cluster behaves tomorrow. It'll go around Troy and Brighton. 😆 |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 17, 2023 21:51:41 GMT -6
00z HRRR AND NAM 3km has the heavier bands setting up just east and south of immediate metro.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 17, 2023 22:34:00 GMT -6
00z HRRR AND NAM 3km has the heavier bands setting up just east and south of immediate metro. I hope I’m ready for a break. My nerves can’t take much more. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 18, 2023 5:44:00 GMT -6
00z HRRR AND NAM 3km has the heavier bands setting up just east and south of immediate metro. WPC shifted to align with that. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 18, 2023 6:06:23 GMT -6
Radar images:   |
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Post by yypc on Jul 18, 2023 6:37:28 GMT -6
Far July, this is one stout NW flow pattern That ridge is stubbornly parked over the southwest. It's good for us, but bad for them. Phoenix is now at 17 consecutive days at >= 110 F. The record is currently 18 days so that is going to get broken easily. And in looking at ensembles I wouldn't eliminate the possibility that they can hit that mark everyday in July. Both the ECMWF and GFS go 600 DM on them next week. Insane. I was ready to pack up and leave after our 10+ day 100 degree streak in 2012. Can’t imagine adding another 10+ degrees to that and extending it. Phoenix is truly the most hellish weather city in the USA. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 18, 2023 7:25:21 GMT -6
SPC added a enhanced risk for damaging winds and very large hail south and east of the metro area.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 18, 2023 7:46:02 GMT -6
That's a pretty gnarly looking cluster barreling across the state. We'll see if it turns slightly to the left or dives south.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 18, 2023 7:51:18 GMT -6
How will these now, affect the rain later? Or is this the main event?
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Jul 18, 2023 7:51:57 GMT -6
That's a pretty gnarly looking cluster barreling across the state. We'll see if it turns slightly to the left or dives south. HRRR doesn't have anything close to the current radar depicted in its 12z run. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 18, 2023 8:11:10 GMT -6
SPC added a enhanced risk for damaging winds and very large hail south and east of the metro area. Watch issued for that cluster. Heading SE away from the metro. |
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