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Post by cozpregon on Jul 18, 2023 8:18:37 GMT -6
How will these now, affect the rain later? Or is this the main event? Anything today should not effect tonight's event. Tonight's storms will fire because of the low level jet.  Good jet across southern MO bumping into basically calm winds along the river... good lift. So storms will likely be elevated above any convective inhibition. NAM favors from the metro on south along the river with this set up. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 18, 2023 9:42:49 GMT -6
Wpc has the axis of heavy rain further south, but nam has heavy rain extending as far n as lincoln and stc counties. I think it is going to be a long night for those in the aforementioned areas and then further south along the I55 corridor into westwrn ky and tn and while i think 3 to 5 inches of rain is possible in the metro, all signs point to a major flash flood event in portions of ky and tn. Think paducah. Im guessing a nw to se axis from montgomery county to central tn and 60 miles either side of that line should be aware of possible flooding, and that should include the entire metro.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 18, 2023 10:40:51 GMT -6
Looks like this is setting up SW of yesterday's WPC forecast to me...MO river and South
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 18, 2023 10:43:49 GMT -6
To me most of the metro will miss out tonight, the bulls eye looks to be lake of the ozarks to paducah
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 18, 2023 11:53:27 GMT -6
To me most of the metro will miss out tonight, the bulls eye looks to be lake of the ozarks to paducah hrrr has been consistent with rain training from Columbia through STL then se through Nashville. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 18, 2023 11:57:13 GMT -6
Looks like this is setting up SW of yesterday's WPC forecast to me...MO river and South The nam is sw for sure. Gfs and hrrr look through the metro. Hard telling. Hope you get some |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 18, 2023 12:58:42 GMT -6
Yay, I'm getting 5 drops....lol
😒
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 18, 2023 13:16:26 GMT -6
The models have really underdone the rain over central MO today. I don’t know that any of them had all that.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 18, 2023 13:17:53 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 18, 2023 13:34:59 GMT -6
Yay, I'm getting 5 drops....lol 😒 Me, too. Not even enough to wet the pavement. |
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Post by MakeitRain on Jul 18, 2023 13:36:58 GMT -6
STL and points north and east are done with this system.
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 18, 2023 13:45:40 GMT -6
Well nws thinks even you folks in troy are in greatest risk tonight. Looks like the metro is going to get it good. We shall see
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 18, 2023 13:59:02 GMT -6
Is the overnight event more like a heavy rain than strong to severe event?
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Post by amstilost on Jul 18, 2023 14:12:37 GMT -6
After this morning's cell went through we've been in line for some great on and off showers but they're just missing us by mere miles. Obviously I don't want training flooding thunderstorms but this was just showers and it would stop and followed by more showers and then stop but we are just missing it. As Maxwell would say "missed it by that much"
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 18, 2023 14:51:44 GMT -6
I think SPC has it pretty well lined up. Immediate metro on the NE fringe... gradient will be sharp by only a few miles.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 18, 2023 16:20:57 GMT -6
The wpc has a moderate risk of excesssive rainfall from around St. genevieve to Nashville, and slight risk along and south of 70 in MO from central mo encompassing St. Louis County and surrounding the moderate area. Some of these areas, particularly in the moderate risk could get 5+ inches of rain, per WPC. Even though the moderate risk is south of town, I would not want to take a chance and back off my original theory that places further north along 70, such as Warrenton, Wright City, Foristell, Wentzville, and O'Fallon could get heavy rain inducing flash flooding. We are still in a slight risk there, and all of the city is. Storms like this tend to overperform and have a tight demarcation between the haves and have notes. iirc, last year's event kind of started around Warrenton and went right down 70. This year's event indicates vigilance is needed in those same places, and then in a corrider down 55 to around Sikeston and eastward from there to Paducah and Nashville. Going to be a long night for some people.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 18, 2023 16:40:04 GMT -6
hrrrr has very heavy rain along I-24 in Southern IL, through Paducah to Kentucky Lake. NAM has heaviest rain (ie 5+ inches) from jefferson county, down 55, through Cairo, Paducah, the lake.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 18, 2023 17:00:40 GMT -6
Latest short-range models have MBY getting squat overnight...I'm shocked
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 18, 2023 18:25:09 GMT -6
Guess the rain will be mostly south this evening. Per flood watch highlighted.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 18, 2023 19:15:01 GMT -6
Guess the rain will be mostly south this evening. Per flood watch highlighted. Those 70% POPs for "heavy rain" aren't looking too good...we'll be lucky to get over a tenth...if anything |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 18, 2023 19:20:24 GMT -6
Still think it makes into the metro... just depends on how long we can keep that jet going on the northern edge.
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 18, 2023 19:21:11 GMT -6
Definitely think the FFWs are warranted to our south
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 18, 2023 19:24:15 GMT -6
Storms definitely won't be thirsty  |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 18, 2023 19:56:23 GMT -6
Guess the rain will be mostly south this evening. Per flood watch highlighted. Those 70% POPs for "heavy rain" aren't looking too good...we'll be lucky to get over a tenth...if anything I'm calling .34 imby |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 18, 2023 20:55:54 GMT -6
Maybe that diffluence across NW MO will start to kick things off  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 18, 2023 22:04:36 GMT -6
The lightning is just insane as these are blowing up overhead.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 18, 2023 22:40:00 GMT -6
South....
😫
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 18, 2023 22:46:41 GMT -6
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Post by tedrick65 on Jul 18, 2023 23:01:11 GMT -6
Thunder in High Ridge
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Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Jul 18, 2023 23:01:50 GMT -6
Gotta pull the grill in the shed. I’m at a south city bar (on PTO this week, lol) and can see the lightning, hear the thunder already. Interesting because the closest storm is in Franklin county right now.
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