|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 18, 2023 23:22:58 GMT -6
The lightning is just insane as these are blowing up overhead. The lightning with this cell in Jeffco is awesome |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 18, 2023 23:39:11 GMT -6
severe thunderstorm watch-60%  |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 19, 2023 1:38:06 GMT -6
Guess that wasn't a very confident 60%. Lol
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 19, 2023 1:38:42 GMT -6
Storms blowing up now along I-70. Back toward Columbia heading east-souteast.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 19, 2023 2:06:34 GMT -6
Enjoy the rain, y'all...looks like I'll be watering in the morning.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 19, 2023 2:48:36 GMT -6
Enjoy the rain, y'all...looks like I'll be watering in the morning. Yeah, close but no cigar! |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 19, 2023 2:49:50 GMT -6
So close...  |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 19, 2023 4:58:39 GMT -6
I was taunted much of the night by the sound of very distant thunder.
But I got a rock. I don't think we got a drop.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 19, 2023 5:41:54 GMT -6
Flash flood emergency for mayfield, ky. Bw 4 and 6 inches of rain has fallen addl 1 to 2 inches expected. Numerous water rescues and many houses surrounded bby water.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 19, 2023 6:28:26 GMT -6
Flash flood emergency for mayfield, ky. Bw 4 and 6 inches of rain has fallen addl 1 to 2 inches expected. Numerous water rescues and many houses surrounded bby water. Those poor people. Unfortunately with the way the radar looks, they will be lucky to only get another 1 or 2". |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 19, 2023 6:54:06 GMT -6
Flash flood emergency for mayfield, ky. Bw 4 and 6 inches of rain has fallen addl 1 to 2 inches expected. Numerous water rescues and many houses surrounded bby water. Those poor people. Unfortunately with the way the radar looks, they will be lucky to only get another 1 or 2". I saw 9 inches on radar. 11 miles south only an inch. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 19, 2023 7:20:50 GMT -6
Those poor people. Unfortunately with the way the radar looks, they will be lucky to only get another 1 or 2". I saw 9 inches on radar. 11 miles south only an inch. The updated verbiage for the ff emergency includes addl towns and reports of rainfall between 6 and 8 inches, with addl amts of 2 to 4 inches expected as of 754 am |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jul 19, 2023 8:36:05 GMT -6
Radar estimates somewhere between 2-3" 7 miles west of De Soto. Lightning and thunder most of the night from about 11:00 p.m. on but I didn't think we had much rain but radar estimates prove me wrong. Pretty sure most of that came this morning but it's still been on and off just really a good rain you know not the toad Strangler that runs off I don't even think of what weather Creek developed a stream in it yet or if it did sometime overnight it dried up already. Looks like one or two more quick showers to come through.
Edit: Make that thundershowers👍
Edit2: looks like I spoke too soon two little showers I had looked at have merged into one line and we probably got at least an inch and a half of rain in the last half hour. storm Creek iss roaring. Pond should be full by the time the runoff stops later on. My son-in-law in Hillsboro says it hasn't hit him yet. Not sure it will if it hasn't yet. That is probably 7 MI east of me and 7 miles north.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Jul 19, 2023 9:03:25 GMT -6
FYI Today is the 17th anniversary St. Louis area derecho event July 19, 2006.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jul 19, 2023 9:16:20 GMT -6
FYI Today is the 17th anniversary St. Louis area derecho event July 19, 2006. I remember that quite well. I was up working and staying in Hannibal working at American Cyanamid or whatever it was at that time. I had to drive home and clean up and set up the generator. |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jul 19, 2023 10:11:21 GMT -6
Looks like the last cell to form over me has moved out I don't see any more Upstream. Are these weekly tests for the weather alert system Auto generated? Because, surely, we can do better than to have a weekly test scheduled or Auto generated while flooding and severe storms are going on. Just doesn't make sense to me IMHO
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jul 19, 2023 11:59:30 GMT -6
Can anyone post a good map of one of the layers/parameters of a model that's showing why these cells are forming and reforming in a line from Central Jefferson County on down. they've been pretty consistent but I can't seem to locate anything that "shows" me why this is occurring
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 19, 2023 12:50:13 GMT -6
Can anyone post a good map of one of the layers/parameters of a model that's showing why these cells are forming and reforming in a line from Central Jefferson County on down. they've been pretty consistent but I can't seem to locate anything that "shows" me why this is occurring Coz had a good post yesterday about the dynamics in play |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 19, 2023 13:08:11 GMT -6
A lot of it has to do with the LLJ
It ramps up at night without the turbulence from surface heating by the sun
That’s why we see these heavy rain falls at night
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jul 19, 2023 14:08:00 GMT -6
Yes, I seen that, I was trying to locate something in the SPC mesoanalysis page that showed pretty current observations or model initiations and looking at those parameters. I couldn't find what coz had posted with the 850mb on the Meso page.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Jul 19, 2023 14:25:27 GMT -6
The NAMs initialization of the 850 this morning shows pretty much where the storms kept developing  |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Jul 19, 2023 14:39:46 GMT -6
This dew point is killing me.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 19, 2023 15:58:02 GMT -6
This dew point is killing me. We got the worst of it here...zero rain yet the humidity is unbearable with a Td of 76*(85%) Fall cannot come quickly enough...I'm done with this lousy summer. I don't understand how it can be so humid and rain so little! |
|
|
|
Post by sgdragons on Jul 19, 2023 16:17:35 GMT -6
So very thankful for the rain we’ve received! 2.125” Over the last few days!
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 19, 2023 18:14:26 GMT -6
This dew point is killing me. We got the worst of it here...zero rain yet the humidity is unbearable with a Td of 76*(85%) Fall cannot come quickly enough...I'm done with this lousy summer. I don't understand how it can be so humid and rain so little! I second that! Lol |
|
|
|
Post by jeffcobeeman on Jul 19, 2023 19:33:40 GMT -6
Finally got a worthwhile rain. Ended up with 2.25 inches last night. Enough rain it closed up the cracks in the yard for a while.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 19, 2023 19:54:32 GMT -6
It looks and feels like it’s going to storm again tonight down this way. HRRR would back that up.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 19, 2023 20:27:29 GMT -6
This dew point is killing me. We got the worst of it here...zero rain yet the humidity is unbearable with a Td of 76*(85%) Fall cannot come quickly enough...I'm done with this lousy summer. I don't understand how it can be so humid and rain so little! you also have some microclimate factors in play too for the humidity, is there a bunch of corn fields nearby? I don't understand it either. I was actually teasing you a little bit the other day when I said there was a minima about a click NW of Brighton. As for the heavy rain, wondering if the smoke is providing some additional condensation nuclei for some of the heavy rains in the region. Also wondering what the synoptic pattern was like in the year ago flash flood catastrophic event that took place a year ago in St. Charles County which dumped 12 inches of rain. I may have to dig to last year's forum to see if anything was posted. I would have thought there'd be more development a bit further north based on my knowledge of where the nose of the llj was situated....my knowledge, or so I thought would have been more to the left of the the nose of low level jet? I realize my conceptual idea doesn't necessarily work out sometimes. I know there was some flash flooding around Columbia, MO, but I would have thought most of the metro, especially the west and southwestern part of the metro would have been measuring rainfall in inches. I think western KY was a given...I can see why they got such a significant flooding event. |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 19, 2023 21:06:02 GMT -6
We got the worst of it here...zero rain yet the humidity is unbearable with a Td of 76*(85%) Fall cannot come quickly enough...I'm done with this lousy summer. I don't understand how it can be so humid and rain so little! you also have some microclimate factors in play too for the humidity, is there a bunch of corn fields nearby? I don't understand it either. I was actually teasing you a little bit the other day when I said there was a minima about a click NW of Brighton. As for the heavy rain, wondering if the smoke is providing some additional condensation nuclei for some of the heavy rains in the region. Also wondering what the synoptic pattern was like in the year ago flash flood catastrophic event that took place a year ago in St. Charles County which dumped 12 inches of rain. I may have to dig to last year's forum to see if anything was posted. I would have thought there'd be more development a bit further north based on my knowledge of where the nose of the llj was situated....my knowledge, or so I thought would have been more to the left of the the nose of low level jet? I realize my conceptual idea doesn't necessarily work out sometimes. I know there was some flash flooding around Columbia, MO, but I would have thought most of the metro, especially the west and southwestern part of the metro would have been measuring rainfall in inches. I think western KY was a given...I can see why they got such a significant flooding event. We have talked about the corn sweat up there before. Here is an article on smoke and severe weather: www.pnnl.gov/news-media/western-wildfires-spark-stronger-storms-downwind-states?fbclid=IwAR3-8XtpD-ThA0LEMIXZk8lLiwcnEvqYUsiWAAs0XYE-UyTQneINqJ1pQFY |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 19, 2023 21:18:21 GMT -6
My locale is a microclimate hotspot for humidity for sure. I'm surounded by a mixture of mature forest and corn fields and there are at least 20 farm ponds within a square mile or so. When the evapotranspiration kicks into high gear, it can get very oppressive out here. It's not too uncommon to record dewpoints around or above 80* after bouts of rain during July and August. It does tend to be about 3-4* cooler than the Metro heat island on average...but the humidity sure makes up for it.
|
|
