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Post by ComoEsJn on Aug 26, 2023 11:29:08 GMT -6
I've been happily eating my words for the last few hours!
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 26, 2023 11:38:35 GMT -6
This is a glorious day. I am actually happy at work.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2023 11:46:28 GMT -6
ive had .04 lol
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 26, 2023 11:49:20 GMT -6
[br We have had next to nothing also |
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Post by birddog on Aug 26, 2023 12:04:49 GMT -6
Haven't posted in quite awhile but have been checking in occasionally.
After this past week of extreme heat, this rain this morning is the biggest rain we have had in months! 1.51", bringing my years total to 23.39" for 2023. Still very dry but it sure helps!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 26, 2023 12:05:40 GMT -6
Wow, 12z HWRF flirting with CAT 4 by Tuesday night.
Tampa Bay would be in real trouble with any right wobble.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2023 12:10:06 GMT -6
Wow, 12z HWRF flirting with CAT 4 by Tuesday night. Tampa Bay would be in real trouble with any right wobble. yeah, some of those hurricane models are pretty ugly |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 26, 2023 12:13:53 GMT -6
Wow, 12z HWRF flirting with CAT 4 by Tuesday night. Tampa Bay would be in real trouble with any right wobble. yeah, some of those hurricane models are pretty ugly It is basically a repeat of hurricane Michael on that run. The forward momentum is a double edged sword. Will prevent crazy rain amounts, but the storm might be rapidly strengthening right up to landfall. Worth noting there are a lot tamer solutions out this suite as well. We shall see. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2023 12:15:30 GMT -6
history has shown the "I" storms can be big. If the wind shear is low in the Gulf, I say look out.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Aug 26, 2023 12:30:25 GMT -6
. 81" IMBY today.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2023 13:13:50 GMT -6
Seems like the HWRF has shown a positive intensity bias in years past, but the bathwater SSTs are a recipe for rapid intensification if shear is relatively low.
The tropics definitely came alive after mid-month...
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2023 13:32:45 GMT -6
18z starting to get a little frisky.  |
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Post by bear1 on Aug 26, 2023 13:35:08 GMT -6
.15 so far Imby 
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 26, 2023 13:56:02 GMT -6
Probably not a great sign for Invest 93L when all the hurricane models turn it into a major hurricane before hitting Florida
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2023 14:11:29 GMT -6
Looks like the Southerns are going to get in on the rainfall this evening, models are shifting the MCV track a bit further S with each run. There's a second zone of enhanced rainfall along/N of 70 with the frontal boundary sagging south as well. So it looks like a nearly area-wide soaker is in the cards today and tonight. We've had 1.3" so far IMBY.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2023 14:34:04 GMT -6
i'm at .07 for the day, I'll let ya'll know when I get to .1 lol.
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Post by REB on Aug 26, 2023 15:22:48 GMT -6
1.01”
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 26, 2023 15:28:25 GMT -6
1.19
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2023 17:08:24 GMT -6
Latest RAP sets up a persistent zone of heavy rain this evening from JeffCo and points S...lines up pretty well with what the NAM was showing. HRRR still looks underdone. I think 99 will break the 0.1" mark...lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2023 19:17:22 GMT -6
not looking promising
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 26, 2023 19:20:14 GMT -6
I have not had enough rain to settle the dust today |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Aug 26, 2023 20:26:21 GMT -6
Yeah... not holding my breath for enough to even settle the dust. Going to have to get up in the morning and put the sprinkler on the garden a couple hours. If it weren't for the tomato and pepper plants holding on, I'd till it all up and be done with it for the rest of the summer.
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Post by birddog on Aug 26, 2023 20:33:56 GMT -6
Well that last rain brought my total for today at 2.93".
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 26, 2023 20:56:22 GMT -6
Latest RAP sets up a persistent zone of heavy rain this evening from JeffCo and points S...lines up pretty well with what the NAM was showing. HRRR still looks underdone. I think 99 will break the 0.1" mark...lol I think the HRRR is going to win this round |
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Post by amstilost on Aug 26, 2023 20:57:56 GMT -6
Talking with my daughter on Thursday reassuring her it only looks like a 20% chance in 7 Days of becoming anything. I looked with trepid excitement at the marine forecast today and seen five to seven foot swells to body surf on on Monday. We arrived at our condo in Panama City Beach today.🤔🤔
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 26, 2023 21:54:55 GMT -6
GFS is still being very aggressive with more brutal heat next weekend into the first full week of Sept. I hope it's just going bonkers and is over exaggerated. It's been pretty consistent in this heat though. It seems like ever since they replaced the GFS, it really struggles. Then again isn't that every global model at some point?! Haha. That's why there are ensembles and the mos blend, etc.!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 27, 2023 6:30:48 GMT -6
GFS is still being very aggressive with more brutal heat next weekend into the first full week of Sept. I hope it's just going bonkers and is over exaggerated. It's been pretty consistent in this heat though. It seems like ever since they replaced the GFS, it really struggles. Then again isn't that every global model at some point?! Haha. That's why there are ensembles and the mos blend, etc.! Shows another 600DM dome near the end of the run... Let's go for the record again. That said I do believe September will be an extension of August in terms of heat so there's that. Siding with Dave, no real Fall until November.
The good news is while triple digits are expected to continue in September, the humidity/dewpoints look much more tolerable, thanks to southwesterly flow rather then southerly as the gulf is shut off thanks to all the tropical activity hogging it up down there, so at least the heat index will be the same if not slightly less then the ambient temperature. Still going to be quite unpleasant regardless though.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 27, 2023 7:01:45 GMT -6
Triple digits are extremely rare in September here...the lower insolation doesn't provide enough energy to reach those temperatures. I don't think we're done with the 90s, and maybe even excessive heat...but I seriously doubt we top 100 again.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 27, 2023 7:03:26 GMT -6
Latest RAP sets up a persistent zone of heavy rain this evening from JeffCo and points S...lines up pretty well with what the NAM was showing. HRRR still looks underdone. I think 99 will break the 0.1" mark...lol I think the HRRR is going to win this round Yeah, the MCV didn't fill in last evening like the NAMs were showing. Definitely some "have nots" yesterday. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 27, 2023 7:30:54 GMT -6
.07 lol
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