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Post by dschreib on Aug 29, 2023 9:11:39 GMT -6
We have friends getting married in Gatlinburg this weekend.
They're from Tampa. The bride-to-be is understandably a bit stressed.
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Post by dschreib on Aug 29, 2023 9:17:57 GMT -6
Looks like a tick east of the forecast track as of this morning. Should see rapid intensification by this evening. Might have 2 major hurricanes circulating at the same time. Definitely more of a wobble than a tick east, too.
Low shear, no dry air to tend with, 30-31C waters. Not much holding this back.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 29, 2023 10:46:39 GMT -6
Should see rapid intensification by this evening. Might have 2 major hurricanes circulating at the same time. Definitely more of a wobble than a tick east, too.
Low shear, no dry air to tend with, 30-31C waters. Not much holding this back.
Hurricane Michael repeat. You can see by the shape of Florida, that historically storms have buzzed this same path for a very long time. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 29, 2023 11:30:07 GMT -6
Idalia has good outflow on the N/NE quadrant and deep convection near the center...should take off quickly tonight into tomorrow
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Post by jeepers on Aug 29, 2023 13:20:37 GMT -6
My daughter’s boyfriend is at school in Gainesville. Waiting to hear about plans.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 29, 2023 15:46:05 GMT -6
Looks like more Canadian Smoke is heading our way tonight into Tomorrow. Look for deteriorating air quality again possibly to Orange Level once the front passes tonight. Then we get a couple more pleasant days until the next heatwave gets underway.
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Post by jeepers on Aug 29, 2023 17:00:02 GMT -6
Yer such a bright ray of sunshine today. LOL
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 29, 2023 17:54:27 GMT -6
Looks like more Canadian Smoke is heading our way tonight into Tomorrow. Look for deteriorating air quality again possibly to Orange Level once the front passes tonight. Then we get a couple more pleasant days until the next heatwave gets underway. It looked pretty hazy this afternoon up this way. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 29, 2023 19:04:20 GMT -6
Clearly defined eye wall and 11 hours to strengthen…
I think we get a low end CAT 4
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 29, 2023 19:15:07 GMT -6
On a good note- I did not hear of any heat deaths during our heatwave
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Post by dschreib on Aug 29, 2023 20:16:53 GMT -6
Also on a good note, at least for now, forecast tracks currently have landfall where there are basically no towns.
Or, I guess I should say a very small population, versus some of the alternatives.
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Post by amstilost on Aug 29, 2023 21:20:42 GMT -6
Those last two ERC's sure had big wobbles involved with them. I sure would like to see more of a northeasterly smooth curve to it than what I'm seeing as I sit here in Panama City. Got a decent line of thunderstorms to our east and south for the lighting up the Horizon in the Gulf pretty good. Pretty sure this is not an outer band of Idalia. Looks like the other bands are just starting to show up Southern parts of the radar from Tallahassee. On a side note we had some thunderstorms this morning offshore and then moved over us but they really stirred up the swells/surf some but we weren't going to go out there while there was lightning.🤪🤪🤪🤪 After the lightning moved off we headed down to the water and started body surfing with the 'boogie boards'. 2-4' waves with occasional 5' bonuses and life was great. We had a single yellow flag flying at the resort but seen red flags at other resorts though.🤔🤔
After the best a half hour maybe 45 minutes so pure fun we are called in out of the water by someone in a UTV saying we had to get out because of a double red flag warning. 2-4' waves. A person with a surfboard was allowed to stay in the water but my son-in-law and myself, wearing regulation life jackets with our styrofoam 'boogie boards' had to get out or face a $500.00 fine. 2-4' waves, WTH, our society/culture sure has has become one big buzzkill.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 29, 2023 21:47:47 GMT -6
Hurricane Idalia should overtake Franklin in strength at the next update.
Nobody stopped you from paying the fine. World is an expensive place.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 30, 2023 5:49:37 GMT -6
She's made landfall!
from the latest Hurricane Center Update:
Idalia made
landfall along the coast of the Florida Big Bend near Keaton Beach
around 745 AM EDT (1145 UTC).
Winds were 125MPH, and the Pressure was 949MB or 29.02 Inches of Mercury
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 30, 2023 8:42:35 GMT -6
Those last two ERC's sure had big wobbles involved with them. I sure would like to see more of a northeasterly smooth curve to it than what I'm seeing as I sit here in Panama City. Got a decent line of thunderstorms to our east and south for the lighting up the Horizon in the Gulf pretty good. Pretty sure this is not an outer band of Idalia. Looks like the other bands are just starting to show up Southern parts of the radar from Tallahassee. On a side note we had some thunderstorms this morning offshore and then moved over us but they really stirred up the swells/surf some but we weren't going to go out there while there was lightning.🤪🤪🤪🤪 After the lightning moved off we headed down to the water and started body surfing with the 'boogie boards'. 2-4' waves with occasional 5' bonuses and life was great. We had a single yellow flag flying at the resort but seen red flags at other resorts though.🤔🤔 After the best a half hour maybe 45 minutes so pure fun we are called in out of the water by someone in a UTV saying we had to get out because of a double red flag warning. 2-4' waves. A person with a surfboard was allowed to stay in the water but my son-in-law and myself, wearing regulation life jackets with our styrofoam 'boogie boards' had to get out or face a $500.00 fine. 2-4' waves, WTH, our society/culture sure has has become one big buzzkill. They don't mess around with rip currents on the emerald coast. Way too many people drown even on yellow flags. The ocean doesn't play nice. It's frustrating, but I can promise you some idiot will drown playing in the surf. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 30, 2023 9:37:44 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 30, 2023 11:12:01 GMT -6
I know Tampa is getting some flooding, but they are good at dodging these storms. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 30, 2023 11:49:16 GMT -6
GFS sure wants us to roast the first half of September...ugh.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 30, 2023 11:50:43 GMT -6
I would certainly lean toward Euro numbers vs GFS. GFS has been way too hot all summer
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 30, 2023 12:28:50 GMT -6
yeah gfs has been like that the last 2 years i believe. Useless with heat in the medium/long range. Or 6 hours
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 30, 2023 13:18:14 GMT -6
This is what the NBM is showing temp wise the next 10 days Definitely warm, but nothing like the last heat wave  |
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 30, 2023 13:54:33 GMT -6
I think even the NBM has biased a degree or two too high because of the GFS contribution.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 30, 2023 14:45:35 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 30, 2023 14:58:48 GMT -6
if i remember correctly last Fall was great
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 30, 2023 15:21:05 GMT -6
if i remember correctly last Fall was great Had its moments. I remember Halloween being spectacular! |
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Aug 30, 2023 17:15:41 GMT -6
Best in years! Only thing better would have been having it on a weekend
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Post by dschreib on Aug 31, 2023 6:54:10 GMT -6
Three named storms and two areas of interest in the Atlantic, and three named storms in the Pacific. Plus a cluster of storms off the Yucatan that I guess is nothing of interest right now.
Poppin'.
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Post by sgdragons on Aug 31, 2023 12:16:17 GMT -6
if i remember correctly last Fall was great You remember correctly. We had a great fall IMO, last year. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Aug 31, 2023 14:49:42 GMT -6
if i remember correctly last Fall was great You remember correctly. We had a great fall IMO, last year. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Aug 31, 2023 14:53:24 GMT -6
Yes last fall was fantastic!! Best one in the 12 years I have lived in Stl region. 70's low 80's days crisp nights. I golfed a ton! It was dry as well remember people were going out on Mississippi down by Chester to the rocks that you never can get to because water was so low by late October..I'd love a repeat...today is just perfect! Enjoy Everyone! Have a safe and happy Holiday Weekend!
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