Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween
Oct 24, 2023 17:50:37 GMT -6
REB, Labrat-O'Fallon IL, and 3 more like this
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 24, 2023 17:50:37 GMT -6
Allow me to introduce myself... my name is Chris Higgins... in case you had forgotten since I've been absent for such a long time.
As you may know I recently retired from the Air Force Reserves. That was supposed to make my life less crazy. That didn't last long. There is a lot going on in the background that has my attention... nothing bad...but it has been requiring my attention almost every waking second that I'm not at work. That, and the fact that our weather has not been very active lately has kept me from checking in with you guys.
So... here is your new thread...finally!
And just in time for some interesting weather. We have dipped into fall off-and-on in what has been a beautiful October thus far. However, the front that is coming over the weekend has a very November/December look to it. With two branches of the jet in play... the southern branch is providing the feed of moisture that will bring some much welcomed rainfall this weekend...even if poorly timed. At the same time, the northern jet will deliver the aforementioned blast of cold air in what may be a prelude of the winter season. That being... cold air undercutting the southwest flow... a recipe for ice storms in an El Nino winter. We will see!
Today's EPS snowfall charts have provided a hint of winter with a few of the perturbations showing some token snow accumulation during the upcoming cycle. This isn't the first time snow has shown up on these charts this month... but it is one of the first. A sign of the changing seasons... just like the first hints of color in the leaves...which by the way have been better and more vibrant than I excepted.
Getting back to the jet stream. I was fighting the aggressive cold of the operational model runs yesterday in bringing the cold air south over the weekend. But today, even the ensembles are much colder...so I started to trend in that direction. I am a bit skeptical of it getting too cold too quickly because the polar jet is still pretty far north and there would need to be some serious undercutting to get the strongest push of cold air south that quickly. That being said, the extensive clouds and rainfall expected Saturday into Sunday will be sufficient to keep temperatures cool to chilly.
I don't see a lot of rain between now and Friday... but there will be some all three days. The biggest and most beneficial rain will fall over the weekend.
Well... that's all I have for now. I have several private messages I need to respond to here soon... so please be patient!
Welcome to the best time of year in St. Louis!
As you may know I recently retired from the Air Force Reserves. That was supposed to make my life less crazy. That didn't last long. There is a lot going on in the background that has my attention... nothing bad...but it has been requiring my attention almost every waking second that I'm not at work. That, and the fact that our weather has not been very active lately has kept me from checking in with you guys.
So... here is your new thread...finally!
And just in time for some interesting weather. We have dipped into fall off-and-on in what has been a beautiful October thus far. However, the front that is coming over the weekend has a very November/December look to it. With two branches of the jet in play... the southern branch is providing the feed of moisture that will bring some much welcomed rainfall this weekend...even if poorly timed. At the same time, the northern jet will deliver the aforementioned blast of cold air in what may be a prelude of the winter season. That being... cold air undercutting the southwest flow... a recipe for ice storms in an El Nino winter. We will see!
Today's EPS snowfall charts have provided a hint of winter with a few of the perturbations showing some token snow accumulation during the upcoming cycle. This isn't the first time snow has shown up on these charts this month... but it is one of the first. A sign of the changing seasons... just like the first hints of color in the leaves...which by the way have been better and more vibrant than I excepted.
Getting back to the jet stream. I was fighting the aggressive cold of the operational model runs yesterday in bringing the cold air south over the weekend. But today, even the ensembles are much colder...so I started to trend in that direction. I am a bit skeptical of it getting too cold too quickly because the polar jet is still pretty far north and there would need to be some serious undercutting to get the strongest push of cold air south that quickly. That being said, the extensive clouds and rainfall expected Saturday into Sunday will be sufficient to keep temperatures cool to chilly.
I don't see a lot of rain between now and Friday... but there will be some all three days. The biggest and most beneficial rain will fall over the weekend.
Well... that's all I have for now. I have several private messages I need to respond to here soon... so please be patient!
Welcome to the best time of year in St. Louis!
