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Post by rb1108 on Dec 1, 2023 9:43:22 GMT -6
Any indications on models of cold and snow potential still as we get past mid month?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2023 14:22:03 GMT -6
Models looking more amped up with our weekend clippers. First one on Saturday into Saturday night arrives with some decent rains especially along and north of I-70/I-64 and maybe even some snow as south as Quincy, IL back to Moberly, MO. Next system Sunday night into Monday looks more interesting to me with borderline temps and strong lift along with a favorable track for the upper level energy and surface low to bring a narrow but intense band of precip with it, which in the heavier regions might mix with some sloppy wet snow with even some brief pockets of heavier snow in the heaviest pockets. While not much if any will likely stick, it could be photogenic for some lucky few. Right now Columbia, MO to Washington, MO to Carbondale Illinois looks like the best likely area but the metro isn't out of the woods yet if it continues get stronger in the models. In fact this sucker even briefly closes off as it passes before opening back up as it crosses into the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys on Monday.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2023 15:09:01 GMT -6
18Z NAM comes farther north with Sunday Night's system and stronger. Paints 1-3" north and west of St. Louis.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 1, 2023 15:34:39 GMT -6
lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 1, 2023 16:09:06 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 1, 2023 17:41:13 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 1, 2023 20:57:07 GMT -6
Eh, models starting to pick up on another stretched PV response by mid month.
They are notoriously slow at picking up on the tropospheric response. Look no further than the cold we just had as evidence they struggle to pick up on these events.
Look for them to slowly trend towards a colder period after the 14th.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 2, 2023 7:06:37 GMT -6
Slow weather question: With all focus on El Nińo and LA Niná I'm not seeing any dramatic difference in our winter weather this year vs last year or the year before. So I started thinking about winters that were truly WINTER. And I always go back to the winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78.
Here's my question: Does anyone know or know where I can find out whether those winters were El Nińo or La Ninã? Or one of each?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2023 7:37:27 GMT -6
Slow weather question: With all focus on El Nińo and LA Niná I'm not seeing any dramatic difference in our winter weather this year vs last year or the year before. So I started thinking about winters that were truly WINTER. And I always go back to the winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78. Here's my question: Does anyone know or know where I can find out whether those winters were El Nińo or La Ninã? Or one of each? Here you go: ggweather.com/enso/oni.htmLooks like they were both weak El Niño |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 2, 2023 8:18:08 GMT -6
The 12/14ish 'storm' on the 06 GFS would be a wonderful dent in our dry weather situation in The Midwest. I believe it's the same system on the 0z GFS but that one is the 11-12th time frame and further north. Still a good rain producer for us. Looks like the only thing aside from the system tonight and tomorrow night. At least it is in/nearing the 'less than 10 day time frame.'😊👍🙏
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Post by amstilost on Dec 2, 2023 16:40:39 GMT -6
🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔 8 hours and no posts. 12 GFS is looking better and really upped the timing if it's the same system, but that'd be a nice birthday present.👍👍🙏🙏
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Post by let it snow11 on Dec 2, 2023 18:12:02 GMT -6
🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔 8 hours and no posts. 12 GFS is looking better and really upped the timing if it's the same system, but that'd be a nice birthday present.👍👍🙏🙏 Yes it is quiet here lately. I'm glad we are getting a little more rain this evening but my pond needs many many days more of it. |
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Post by bear1 on Dec 2, 2023 18:44:23 GMT -6
I've been under a green radar the past 2 hours & all I'm getting is a light sprinkle now & then??
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Post by bear1 on Dec 2, 2023 19:03:50 GMT -6
I've been under a green radar the past 2 hours & all I'm getting is a light sprinkle now & then?? After I posted this, it finally started raining  got .02" already. |
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Post by let it snow11 on Dec 2, 2023 23:00:12 GMT -6
It's been a light rain here most of the evening. Heard a clap of thunder off in the distance about 10 minutes ago, then had a short burst of what sounded like small hailstones on my roof. Back to just rain now.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 3, 2023 4:33:20 GMT -6
Man its been really slow in here. Typically it's hoping already.
This pattern really needs to send us some Winter precipitation. Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 3, 2023 8:58:33 GMT -6
The GEFS and EPS do look kind of interesting around the 10th with a signal for a trough in the middle of the country
There should be enough cold air floating around that winter weather would be possible if something’s spins up in the right place
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2023 9:39:42 GMT -6
highly highly highly doubtful anything but rain and mild next weekend an/or early the following week if you ask me
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Post by REB on Dec 3, 2023 9:55:16 GMT -6
Sister is flying to Munich. They got 17 inches of snow yesterday. A record for December.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 3, 2023 10:18:38 GMT -6
Sister is flying to Munich. They got 17 inches of snow yesterday. A record for December. A lot of times when Europe gets wintry the US will turn off colder in a week or two. I'd expect a pattern shift towards mid-month. |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 3, 2023 11:44:42 GMT -6
Any optimism I had about it being cold and having snow when back in STL over the holidays continues to drain away, sadly. Maybe things will turn around, still time, but this pattern is not helping.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2023 12:02:38 GMT -6
The GEFS and EPS do look kind of interesting around the 10th with a signal for a trough in the middle of the country There should be enough cold air floating around that winter weather would be possible if something’s spins up in the right place The 12z operational gfs lost the storm, but 3 or 4 big ensemble runs in there. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2023 12:45:54 GMT -6
12z euro is quite interesting on Sunday for STL
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 3, 2023 12:52:46 GMT -6
12z euro is quite interesting on Sunday for STL |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 3, 2023 12:54:05 GMT -6
Little bit of East Memphis aka. Nashville Low..pull it west a tad and deepen quicker..goes 998 to 978 pretty quick past here..something to watch..thank God! It's been boring.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2023 12:59:34 GMT -6
Little bit of East Memphis aka. Nashville Low..pull it west a tad and deepen quicker..goes 998 to 978 pretty quick past here..something to watch..thank God! It's been boring. Ukmet is much quicker/west with the low over STL. There is a path to a nice storm somewhere between the Ukmet and euro. Probably will end up being an Ohio storm or an Iowa storm, but maybe we can pull something off. It’s less than a week away which is nice. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 3, 2023 13:05:24 GMT -6
Our luck I'll Go 500 for Ohio Alex!
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Post by MakeitRain on Dec 3, 2023 13:47:22 GMT -6
Latest HRRR has 3-6 inches right through the metro tonight.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 3, 2023 13:58:54 GMT -6
Latest HRRR has 3-6 inches right through the metro tonight. Of rain or snow? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2023 14:00:27 GMT -6
Latest HRRR has 3-6 inches right through the metro tonight. Of rain or snow? Snow, but that won’t be happening. |
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got .02" already.
