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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 3, 2023 14:28:27 GMT -6
Snow, but that won’t be happening. Was wondering. Thought I had missed something somewhere. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 14:58:26 GMT -6
NAM shows thundershowers with perhaps sleet or small hail mixing in with it's 18Z run overnight tonight, regardless what happens, rain, sleet, hail, or snow this thing looks like it wants to dump a solid half inch to 3/4ths an inch of QPF between Columbia into the Metro, or roughly the I-70/I-64 corridor. However this heavy band of QPF looks only like 30-50 miles wide at most where it happens, so there's gonna be some haves and have nots. What's new around here... Nevertheless, this clipper looks like it's has some tricks up it's sleeve. Even the Clipper behind it on Monday into Tuesday is coming/tracking farther south. but regardless not much is to be expected out of that, however the northeastern Illinois counties of the viewing area could get sideswiped by it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 15:05:48 GMT -6
Snow, but that won’t be happening. Was wondering. Thought I had missed something somewhere. RAP now says the same thing, in fact, RAP is the juiciest showing around an inch of QPF centered over southern Madison County along I-70. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 15:11:54 GMT -6
I know this thing is really fighting some surface level warm air up to around 850MB, but if the QPF values are even close to what actually happens, its quite cold at the 700MB level and around freezing at the 850MB. If cloud tops get high enough it could pack some small hail or sleet with some large slushy snowflakes in the heavier returns, but it's going to be very hit and miss with lighter areas seeing mainly cold rain, but with heavy QPF values from the convective models, dynamic cooling along with very favorable time of day/night (after midnight, but before sunrise) could be enough to deliver the goods. I wouldn't be surprised if someone wakes up to a plastering 1-3" of 'stuff' on the ground tomorrow mainly on the grass and elevated surfaces like cars/yard furniture and roof tops, but roads remaining just wet or slightly slushy on the side streets. On that same token, most won't... Just a wait and see kind of thing. This system is compact, but quite potent, so I wouldn't discount it completely.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2023 15:47:58 GMT -6
Oh, I was discounting heavy precip and high QPF.
Temps are just not there for big/any accumulations or even snow.
Somebody might get a brief slushy inch in a very narrow band if the dynamics work out.
Otherwise, some decent drought busting rain for some.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 16:01:58 GMT -6
RAP 21Z run ups the ante especially north of I-70/I-64. Showing over an inch of QPF and 10:1 Ratios of 6" lollipops in Madison County, IL towards Litchfield. Granted ratios will likely be closer to 6-7:1, so maybe more like a couple slushy inches, system even pivots a bit across the Bi-State, always a nice thing.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 16:04:22 GMT -6
Always love these systems that come together right as they pass by. Sometimes can be the best surprises!... And disappointments I'm sure.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2023 16:46:04 GMT -6
lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 3, 2023 17:19:16 GMT -6
I haven't looked at models in a day or so, but low-level temps looked pretty toasty for any chances of frozen precip tonight with that clipper. Maybe a few slushballs mixing in under the heavier banded precip and a quick dusting...big maybe
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 17:49:50 GMT -6
Past 2 runs of the HRRR/RAP are shifting the heaviest axis farther north. Now now showing much for the immediate metro rain or otherwise.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 3, 2023 18:00:51 GMT -6
And there we go. Plenty of posts. Just how we like it.
Hehe
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 18:08:58 GMT -6
18Z EURO has a line from Elsberry, MO to Scott, AFB as the heaviest axis of precip.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 3, 2023 21:29:03 GMT -6
Glenn is calling for the possibility of a bit of slushy snow just before morning rush.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 3, 2023 23:20:45 GMT -6
That’s certainly a signal on the GEFS next weekend. Could be anything from rain to cold to a bonafide winter system  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2023 0:41:26 GMT -6
00z euro is about the best case scenario next weekend
Rain to a heavy dumping of backside snow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2023 0:45:37 GMT -6
00z euro is about the best case scenario next weekend Rain to a heavy dumping of backside snow I’m glad I stayed up for that run… Kaboom Now, can I get a subtle 20-30 mile shift east? 😂 |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 4, 2023 5:09:49 GMT -6
Ya what a nice fantasy storm on the EURO.
Beautiful
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 4, 2023 5:45:04 GMT -6
00z euro is about the best case scenario next weekend Rain to a heavy dumping of backside snow I’m glad I stayed up for that run… Kaboom Now, can I get a subtle 20-30 mile shift east? 😂 At this point if it's snow take what you can get. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2023 6:49:25 GMT -6
Another beautiful 36* rain. Can't complain though...this moisture is badly needed!
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 387 
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Post by twocat on Dec 4, 2023 10:36:55 GMT -6
.40 according to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete. Added to the .65 from Thursday night into Friday, Mr. Davis is not as disgruntled as he was but still wants more.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 4, 2023 10:53:33 GMT -6
Tiny bit of potential Saturday in my opinion. Something to keep an eye on
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2023 11:09:58 GMT -6
Tiny bit of potential Saturday in my opinion. Something to keep an eye on Currently looks like a Rockford to Milwaukee snowstorm, but the whole region still is in the game. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 4, 2023 11:49:11 GMT -6
Got woken up and the poop scared out of me by the loud thunder. As far as I know, it was just 1. Anyone else hear it? And what time was it?
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Post by REB on Dec 4, 2023 11:55:26 GMT -6
Got woken up and the poop scared out of me by the loud thunder. As far as I know, it was just 1. Anyone else hear it? And what time was it? 2 am. Several claps of thunder and lightning. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 4, 2023 11:58:37 GMT -6
Got woken up and the poop scared out of me by the loud thunder. As far as I know, it was just 1. Anyone else hear it? And what time was it? 2 am. Several claps of thunder and lightning. Thanks! Trying to recover from working 2 14 hour shifts in a row, once asleep I am out. |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 4, 2023 12:08:19 GMT -6
Is everyone seeing lots of flocks of starlings in their neighborhoods or homes?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2023 12:18:11 GMT -6
The GEFS shows some potential Both the GEM and Ukie looked supportive of some snow for parts of the area  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2023 12:27:15 GMT -6
The last time I looked at models it didn't look like there was enough amplification in the N stream ahead of that ejecting trof to get the cold air in place in time...has that changed?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2023 12:31:51 GMT -6
Don’t look at the euro
It will only get your hopes up
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 4, 2023 12:36:21 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Dschreib!!
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