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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2023 12:40:56 GMT -6
Don’t look at the euro It will only get your hopes up 12z euro is rarified air for a storm within 6 days. Wow |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2023 12:43:56 GMT -6
The last time I looked at models it didn't look like there was enough amplification in the N stream ahead of that ejecting trof to get the cold air in place in time...has that changed? Euro approach would support enough dynamic cooling with a rapidly deepening low. If it was a little colder the 12z euro would be one of the best model runs inside 6 days in the last 15 years. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 4, 2023 12:54:26 GMT -6
Euro has had it in some way 3 runs now..Holiday 🎩 🪄 please!
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Post by RyanD on Dec 4, 2023 13:07:48 GMT -6
goodness, if only the EURO would verify. LOL At least it's less than a week away and it's the EURO but I would still bet it'll be mostly rain.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2023 13:35:48 GMT -6
 pullin' for you guys 🫡 |
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Post by REB on Dec 4, 2023 14:52:14 GMT -6
Happy birthday Dschreib!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2023 15:48:27 GMT -6
pullin' for you guys 🫡 Woah... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2023 15:55:38 GMT -6
The cold connection the EURO shows looks very borderline with the N stream wave lifting into NE Canada well ahead of the lifting/deepening storm. But I could see how a rapidly deepening cyclone like that could produce enough dynamical lift to change over to wet heavy snow as it passes. We'll have to see how that trends over the next several days.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Dec 4, 2023 17:49:00 GMT -6
Is everyone seeing lots of flocks of starlings in their neighborhoods or homes? A friend of mine asked me this morning if I was seeing lots of them. I am not. She is in St. Charles, about a mile as the crow flies from me and she is seeing lots of them! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 4, 2023 20:37:23 GMT -6
The cold connection the EURO shows looks very borderline with the N stream wave lifting into NE Canada well ahead of the lifting/deepening storm. But I could see how a rapidly deepening cyclone like that could produce enough dynamical lift to change over to wet heavy snow as it passes. We'll have to see how that trends over the next several days. Yep! Deformation snow! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 4, 2023 22:19:35 GMT -6
00z GEM is a thing of beauty! The GFS is all wet.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2023 22:48:41 GMT -6
00z Ukmet is north.
Icon is south.
Gfs is north.
Ggem is just right.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2023 22:59:21 GMT -6
In the Canadian we trust
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Post by REB on Dec 5, 2023 6:54:42 GMT -6
Guys, I must fly out at 10:30 a.m. Sunday morning. Work some kind of magic so everybody is happy.
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Post by gfrig - Troy, MO on Dec 5, 2023 10:27:17 GMT -6
Passed a liquid salt truck spraying a layer of salt down on highway 40 before forest park
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2023 10:53:45 GMT -6
Trash model runs this morning so far.
As to be expected.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 5, 2023 10:54:24 GMT -6
Safe to say no single model has a strong lock on the weekend pattern. There is a lot of jet energy in play and a deep long wave with embedded short wavelength shortwaves which are giving the models fits.
Safe bet right now... and one that matches what I would expect this time of year in this pattern is mostly rain for us... maybe some thunder. But I think there is a decent shot at a strungout band of light precip back in the cold air... some of which may end up being wet snow. But chances of anything beyond mood snow in our area don't look good at the moment.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 5, 2023 11:50:47 GMT -6
Gust ("cold") front went thru or is about to! Dropping temps this afternoon!
Also it seems to me at least that Dec is getting off to a cloudier start than what was originally forecasted 3-5 days out. Observed highs have been slightly colder relatively than expected. Just more proof that's it's a struggle to have sun for an entire day in December in STL! Unsettled and wet is becoming more common for Dec for STL. Something Snowman knows too well. Hopefully we can change to a snowier pattern the 2nd half of Dec.
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Post by terrystl on Dec 5, 2023 12:05:51 GMT -6
I’m really hoping the gfs starts to trend south seeing as I may be in the stl area watching this beauty unfold haha this thing has a chance to be an stl classic the DAM won’t stand a chance.
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Post by terrystl on Dec 5, 2023 12:07:53 GMT -6
The current drought is the best part . Win win
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2023 12:22:38 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 5, 2023 12:26:51 GMT -6
The current drought is the best part . Win win Yes the drought is bad still, but at least we are slowly starting to get out of the hole. Hopefully the upper Midwest gets a lot of snow/moisture this winter too. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 5, 2023 14:04:48 GMT -6
If modeling doesn't start to trend back south later today then categorical risk for severe weather on day 4 may be expanded northward tomorrow, perhaps even including our area. As it is so far signs are pointing to a high shear low instability environment in place Saturday as the system moves through. GFS and ECMWF are fairly similar with EHI values over 1 in central to eastern MO in the vicinity of the triple point. The exception being that the ECMWF is stingy with convection whereas the GFS is generating a robust line of storms.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 5, 2023 14:52:26 GMT -6
If modeling doesn't start to trend back south later today then categorical risk for severe weather on day 4 may be expanded northward tomorrow, perhaps even including our area. As it is so far signs are pointing to a high shear low instability environment in place Saturday as the system moves through. GFS and ECMWF are fairly similar with EHI values over 1 in central to eastern MO in the vicinity of the triple point. The exception being that the ECMWF is stingy with convection whereas the GFS is generating a robust line of storms. Yeah.. I've looking at that more closely now too. I added thunder yesterday to my forecast to make a baby step in that direction. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 5, 2023 15:17:30 GMT -6
Our Satellite provider added a 3rd Weather Network this month.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 5, 2023 16:00:59 GMT -6
Our Satellite provider added a 3rd Weather Network this month. If it's actually called "The Weather Network" that may be the Canadian equivalent of the Weather Channel. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 5, 2023 17:37:25 GMT -6
Our Satellite provider added a 3rd Weather Network this month. If it's actually called "The Weather Network" that may be the Canadian equivalent of the Weather Channel. Just wasn’t sure if I could post the name. Dish Network added Fox News Weather. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 5, 2023 20:34:38 GMT -6
If it's actually called "The Weather Network" that may be the Canadian equivalent of the Weather Channel. Just wasn’t sure if I could post the name. Dish Network added Fox News Weather. I don’t know if it's actually up yet but Sling is adding it, as well. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Dec 5, 2023 21:55:08 GMT -6
Just wasn’t sure if I could post the name. Dish Network added Fox News Weather. I don’t know if it's actually up yet but Sling is adding it, as well. I'm still a WeatherNation fan streaming on Roku. They do dumb it down a little bit, but it's pretty much 24/7 forecast with pretty good detail from their better people. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 6, 2023 0:31:08 GMT -6
The weekend snowstorm just straight up disappeared on most models
It was always unlikely we got snow anyway, but dang
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