Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween

Snowman99 Moderator Ban Hammer Posts: 11,636 Snowfall Events:	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 16, 2023 17:46:04 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Snowman99 on Nov 16, 2023 17:46:04 GMT -6 euro is just a bit different

chowderhead54 Junior Forecaster Posts: 257	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 16, 2023 18:31:05 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by chowderhead54 on Nov 16, 2023 18:31:05 GMT -6 Yep Euro is Warmer for sure..but it had no precip on 12z run yesterday so at least there is that..

bdgwx
Weather God

Harvester, MO

Posts: 5,062

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 7:39:20 GMT -6

Post by bdgwx on Nov 17, 2023 7:39:20 GMT -6

This El Nino is not like the others. I'm not sure it matters all that much as there is little or no correlation between seasonal snowfall and the ENSO cycle here in St. Louis despite the correlations being strong in other parts of the CONUS.

bdgwx
Weather God

Harvester, MO

Posts: 5,062

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 8:02:00 GMT -6

Post by bdgwx on Nov 17, 2023 8:02:00 GMT -6

I see Google has released Snowstorm920 publicly.

All joking aside this is pretty cool. Their claims of superior skill are already being questioned though. I saw that it's 10-day 500 mb height scores are less than the EPS ensemble.

[Lam et al. 2023]

deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=GraphCast/

ECMWF is the operator of the model. You can find the forecasts here.

Google has integrated their AI weather forecast technology into Bard as part of the MetNet3 model.

[Andrychowicz et al. 2023]

blog.research.google/2023/11/metnet-3-state-of-art-neural-weather.html

I asked Bard if it uses MetNet3 for weather forecasts. Here was it's response.

Me: Do you use MetNet3 for your weather forecasts?

Bard: Yes, I do use MetNet3 for my weather forecasts. MetNet3 is a state-of-the-art neural weather model that has been shown to outperform traditional physics-based models in a number of studies. It is able to produce highly accurate forecasts of precipitation, wind, temperature, and dew point up to 24 hours in advance. MetNet3 is also able to produce forecasts at a very high spatial resolution of up to 1 kilometer. This makes it a valuable tool for providing detailed weather information to users.

I use MetNet3 in conjunction with other weather models, such as the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and the ensemble forecast suite (ENS), to provide the most accurate forecasts possible. I also use a variety of other data sources, such as radar and satellite imagery, to supplement my forecasts.

I am constantly monitoring the performance of MetNet3 and other weather models, and I will make adjustments as needed to ensure that I am providing the most accurate forecasts possible.

I don't know...I think Bard is getting too cocky there. But it is pretty cool seeing that Bard is going beyond any one source and using its "intelligence" instead of cherry-picking its favorite model.

Last Edit: Nov 17, 2023 8:06:19 GMT -6 by bdgwx

Worldserieschampions (Chicago)
Weather God

Posts: 7,975

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 8:07:04 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2023 8:07:04 GMT -6

Nov 17, 2023 8:02:00 GMT -6 bdgwx said:

I see Google has released Snowstorm920 publicly.

All joking aside this is pretty cool. Their claims of superior skill are already being questioned though. I saw that it's 10-day 500 mb height scores are less than the EPS ensemble.

[Lam et al. 2023]

deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=GraphCast/

ECMWF is the operator of the model. You can find the forecasts here.

Google has integrated their AI weather forecast technology into Bard as part of the MetNet3 model.

[Andrychowicz et al. 2023]

blog.research.google/2023/11/metnet-3-state-of-art-neural-weather.html

I asked Bard if it uses MetNet3 for weather forecasts. Here was it's response.

Me: Do you use MetNet3 for your weather forecasts?

Bard: Yes, I do use MetNet3 for my weather forecasts. MetNet3 is a state-of-the-art neural weather model that has been shown to outperform traditional physics-based models in a number of studies. It is able to produce highly accurate forecasts of precipitation, wind, temperature, and dew point up to 24 hours in advance. MetNet3 is also able to produce forecasts at a very high spatial resolution of up to 1 kilometer. This makes it a valuable tool for providing detailed weather information to users.

I use MetNet3 in conjunction with other weather models, such as the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and the ensemble forecast suite (ENS), to provide the most accurate forecasts possible. I also use a variety of other data sources, such as radar and satellite imagery, to supplement my forecasts.

I am constantly monitoring the performance of MetNet3 and other weather models, and I will make adjustments as needed to ensure that I am providing the most accurate forecasts possible.

I don't know...I think Bard is getting too cocky there. But it is pretty cool seeing that Bard is going beyond anyone source and using its "intelligence" instead of cherry-picking its favorite model.

Teach it about the DAM, the WAM, and the Arch Effect

bdgwx
Weather God

Harvester, MO

Posts: 5,062

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 8:18:22 GMT -6

Post by bdgwx on Nov 17, 2023 8:18:22 GMT -6

Nov 17, 2023 8:07:04 GMT -6 Worldserieschampions (Chicago) said:

Teach it about the DAM, the WAM, and the Arch Effect

I would but it already got kinda weird on me. I asked it if St. Louis was going to get snow on or around Thanksgiving Day and it said no. I told it that I was disappointed and it tried cheering me up by claiming there is always a chance of a surprise lake effect snow event. I told it that St. Louis was too far away from a large lake for that to ever happen. It immediately conceded and said St. Louis was 150 miles from the Mississippi River. /facepalm

Snowman99 Moderator Ban Hammer Posts: 11,636 Snowfall Events:	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 9:28:04 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Snowman99 on Nov 17, 2023 9:28:04 GMT -6 lol

mosue56 Pro Forecaster Festus, 55 and A. Posts: 2,047	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 9:41:55 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by mosue56 on Nov 17, 2023 9:41:55 GMT -6 Tell it it’s river effect or Arch effect, not lake! My honey noticed lots of birds on our feeder this morning. They must know something!

Snowman99 Moderator Ban Hammer Posts: 11,636 Snowfall Events:	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 10:15:17 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Snowman99 on Nov 17, 2023 10:15:17 GMT -6 probably hungry

Worldserieschampions (Chicago)
Weather God

Posts: 7,975

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 10:18:57 GMT -6 via mobile chowderhead54 likes this

Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2023 10:18:57 GMT -6

Well, the models have totally given up on a phase before Thanksgiving.

12z gfs brews a potential monster storm the Saturday after (but it gets sheared out).

12z ggem has nothing lol.

It must be winter time

Last Edit: Nov 17, 2023 10:21:31 GMT -6 by Worldserieschampions (Chicago)

chowderhead54 Junior Forecaster Posts: 257	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 10:39:02 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by chowderhead54 on Nov 17, 2023 10:39:02 GMT -6 The Drought conditions are hindering development of these systems maybe? Hopefully at least some rain to prime us for later in season??

pbc12871 Weather Intern Posts: 1,219	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 10:46:10 GMT -6 via mobile guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters and jeffcobeeman like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by pbc12871 on Nov 17, 2023 10:46:10 GMT -6 A monster snowstorm getting sheared out has a familiar ring to it.
	Ballwin Mo

Worldserieschampions (Chicago) Weather God Posts: 7,975	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 11:10:14 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2023 11:10:14 GMT -6 Nov 17, 2023 10:46:10 GMT -6 pbc12871 said: A monster snowstorm getting sheared out has a familiar ring to it. Yeah, we get 12-15 of them every season 😂

STGOutdoors Weather God Perryville, MO Posts: 5,989	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 11:44:36 GMT -6 jeffcobeeman likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 17, 2023 11:44:36 GMT -6 Its gonna be a long winter with the prevailing drought...

koll27–Waterloo, IL
Junior Forecaster

Waterloo, IL

Posts: 375

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 14:16:17 GMT -6

Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Nov 17, 2023 14:16:17 GMT -6

Nov 17, 2023 8:18:22 GMT -6 bdgwx said:

Nov 17, 2023 8:07:04 GMT -6 Worldserieschampions (Chicago) said:

Teach it about the DAM, the WAM, and the Arch Effect

I would but it already got kinda weird on me. I asked it if St. Louis was going to get snow on or around Thanksgiving Day and it said no. I told it that I was disappointed and it tried cheering me up by claiming there is always a chance of a surprise lake effect snow event. I told it that St. Louis was too far away from a large lake for that to ever happen. It immediately conceded and said St. Louis was 150 miles from the Mississippi River. /facepalm

Maybe it thought you were talking about St. Louis, MN...lol.

Enjoy life, it's the only one you get!

Waterloo, IL

ndolan387
Pro Forecaster

Posts: 1,864

Snowfall Events: Winter Seasons:
2018-19: 26.4"
2019-20: 16.7"
2020-21: 13.1"
2021-22: 15.1"
2022-23: 7.65"
2023-24: 11.5"

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 14:29:36 GMT -6 via mobile chowderhead54 likes this

Post by ndolan387 on Nov 17, 2023 14:29:36 GMT -6

It seriously as others have mentioned, looks like we are in for a much more interesting pattern for the last week ish of Nov into the first week of Dec. Lots of shortwave troughs coming thru our region! Maybe one will deliver the snow goods here and not miss us to the west or east.

Last Edit: Nov 17, 2023 14:31:12 GMT -6 by ndolan387

guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters Weather God Posts: 7,288	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 15:02:24 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 17, 2023 15:02:24 GMT -6
	Waiting for snow The first of the year I just can't believe That it almost is here Like cousins and Christmas And places to go Nothing takes longer Than waiting for snow - John McCutcheon

BRTNWXMAN Moderator Brighton, IL Posts: 10,120	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 16:38:29 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 17, 2023 16:38:29 GMT -6 Nov 17, 2023 15:02:24 GMT -6 guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters said: That was a crazy day. I missed a tornado intercept near Litchfield by a mile or two.
	This bro lives a stones throw NNW of Brighton, IL. "The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it." ~Patrick Young

tedrick65 Weather Intern High Ridge, MO, Near 30 & Dillon Rd. Posts: 752	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 20:31:55 GMT -6 via Tapatalk Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by tedrick65 on Nov 17, 2023 20:31:55 GMT -6 Pretty extreme cold and snow continues in Finnish Lapland (Levi). -24°C/-11°F tonight. They didn't even need their farmed/stored snow for last weekends women's world cup event.
	I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters
Weather God

Posts: 7,288

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 21:10:52 GMT -6

Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 17, 2023 21:10:52 GMT -6

Nov 17, 2023 20:31:55 GMT -6 tedrick65 said:

Pretty extreme cold and snow continues in Finnish Lapland (Levi). -24°C/-11°F tonight. They didn't even need their farmed/stored snow for last weekends women's world cup event.

And Alaska keeps getting hammered with snow. Parts of Anchorage are over three feet this month. And it's a wet heavy snow they don't typically get.

Waiting for snow The first of the year
I just can't believe That it almost is here
Like cousins and Christmas And places to go
Nothing takes longer Than waiting for snow
- John McCutcheon

Chris Higgins
Administrator

Chesterfield, MO

Posts: 8,364

Snowfall Events: Snow 2013-2014 (22.5")
Snow 2014-2015 (15.2")
Snow 2015-2016 (12.4")
Snow 2016-2017 (1.4")
Snow 2017-2018 (7.9")
Snow 2018-2019 (26.8")
Snow 2019-2020 (10.5")
Snow 2020-2021 (10.4")
Snow 2021-2022 (11.3")
Snow 2022-2023 (not worth reporting)
==========================================
Dec 27, 2023 (0.2)
Jan 5, 2024 (2.2)
Jan 15, 2024 (1.3)
Jan 18-19 (0.6)
---------------------
TOTAL 4.3

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 22:16:09 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 17, 2023 22:16:09 GMT -6

The 00z GFS is a huge change from 18z and 12z for late next week.

Chris Higgins
Chesterfield, MO
twitter: @fox2ch
facebook: www.facebook.com/ChrisHigginsFOX2
Fox 2 Photo Albums fox2now.com/category/photo-galleries/

bob Junior Forecaster Posts: 327	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 23:25:42 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by bob on Nov 17, 2023 23:25:42 GMT -6 Is it a good change i hope.

bob Junior Forecaster Posts: 327	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 17, 2023 23:35:26 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by bob on Nov 17, 2023 23:35:26 GMT -6 Is it a good change i hope.

Chris Higgins
Administrator

Chesterfield, MO

Posts: 8,364

Snowfall Events: Snow 2013-2014 (22.5")
Snow 2014-2015 (15.2")
Snow 2015-2016 (12.4")
Snow 2016-2017 (1.4")
Snow 2017-2018 (7.9")
Snow 2018-2019 (26.8")
Snow 2019-2020 (10.5")
Snow 2020-2021 (10.4")
Snow 2021-2022 (11.3")
Snow 2022-2023 (not worth reporting)
==========================================
Dec 27, 2023 (0.2)
Jan 5, 2024 (2.2)
Jan 15, 2024 (1.3)
Jan 18-19 (0.6)
---------------------
TOTAL 4.3

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 18, 2023 0:12:49 GMT -6 via mobile jeffcobeeman likes this

Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 18, 2023 0:12:49 GMT -6

It has gone away from the strong lead wave Friday completely. It shows no chance for snow... barely any rain (next weekend). In other words, back to reality.

Chris Higgins
Chesterfield, MO
twitter: @fox2ch
facebook: www.facebook.com/ChrisHigginsFOX2
Fox 2 Photo Albums fox2now.com/category/photo-galleries/

House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~
Junior Forecaster

Posts: 384

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 18, 2023 5:33:04 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Nov 18, 2023 5:33:04 GMT -6

Truck say 27* up here in Macon MO 🦌

Seeing several shooting stars 🌠 in SE sky from that meteor shower

My rifle tags filled so the wife drove up to try her luck!

Let's see if my wish comes true! 🤞

I own The Fruit Stand on Manchester Rd Just West Of 141 I fish & hunt often with a deep passion for weather and nature!

bellevillewxguy Weather God West Belleville, IL Posts: 4,953	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 18, 2023 7:22:08 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 18, 2023 7:22:08 GMT -6 December looking dry and warm again. All is right with the world!?!
	Location: Unincorporated West Belleville @ Stookey Township between IL Route 15 and Old St. Louis Rd/Route 13.

bellevillewxguy
Weather God

West Belleville, IL

Posts: 4,953

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 18, 2023 7:24:17 GMT -6

Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 18, 2023 7:24:17 GMT -6

Fits the going forecast that if 'winter' shows up it'll be in the latter half of the season. A flip to La Nina in the Spring not good for drought relief prospects however. Signs the next La Nina could be strong as well by mid/late Summer 2024. More middle-east like heat anyone?

Location: Unincorporated West Belleville @ Stookey Township between IL Route 15 and Old St. Louis Rd/Route 13.

Snowman99 Moderator Ban Hammer Posts: 11,636 Snowfall Events:	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 18, 2023 7:54:02 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Snowman99 on Nov 18, 2023 7:54:02 GMT -6 lol jebuz

Worldserieschampions (Chicago) Weather God Posts: 7,975	Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 18, 2023 9:27:14 GMT -6 via mobile chowderhead54 likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 18, 2023 9:27:14 GMT -6 00z euro ensembles actually looked decent for next weekend. 6z gfs flipped back decently as well

tedrick65
Weather Intern

High Ridge, MO, Near 30 & Dillon Rd.

Posts: 752

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween Nov 18, 2023 9:31:58 GMT -6 via Tapatalk

Post by tedrick65 on Nov 18, 2023 9:31:58 GMT -6

Nov 18, 2023 7:24:17 GMT -6 bellevillewxguy said:

Fits the going forecast that if 'winter' shows up it'll be in the latter half of the season. A flip to La Nina in the Spring not good for drought relief prospects however. Signs the next La Nina could be strong as well by mid/late Summer 2024. More middle-east like heat anyone?

Where did you get the La Nina flip from? That's not consistent with the November NOAA ENSO outlook. Probabilities of El Nino or neutral are much higher through the JJA period next summer.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

Morethanweatherstl

Chris's Corner - Hints of Early Winter For Halloween

Post by Snowman99 on Nov 16, 2023 17:46:04 GMT -6

Post by chowderhead54 on Nov 16, 2023 18:31:05 GMT -6

Post by bdgwx on Nov 17, 2023 7:39:20 GMT -6

Post by bdgwx on Nov 17, 2023 8:02:00 GMT -6

Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2023 8:07:04 GMT -6

Post by bdgwx on Nov 17, 2023 8:18:22 GMT -6

Post by Snowman99 on Nov 17, 2023 9:28:04 GMT -6

Post by mosue56 on Nov 17, 2023 9:41:55 GMT -6

Post by Snowman99 on Nov 17, 2023 10:15:17 GMT -6

Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2023 10:18:57 GMT -6

Post by chowderhead54 on Nov 17, 2023 10:39:02 GMT -6

Post by pbc12871 on Nov 17, 2023 10:46:10 GMT -6

Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2023 11:10:14 GMT -6

Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 17, 2023 11:44:36 GMT -6

Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Nov 17, 2023 14:16:17 GMT -6

Post by ndolan387 on Nov 17, 2023 14:29:36 GMT -6

Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 17, 2023 15:02:24 GMT -6

Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 17, 2023 16:38:29 GMT -6

Post by tedrick65 on Nov 17, 2023 20:31:55 GMT -6

Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 17, 2023 21:10:52 GMT -6

Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 17, 2023 22:16:09 GMT -6

Post by bob on Nov 17, 2023 23:25:42 GMT -6

Post by bob on Nov 17, 2023 23:35:26 GMT -6

Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 18, 2023 0:12:49 GMT -6

Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Nov 18, 2023 5:33:04 GMT -6

Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 18, 2023 7:22:08 GMT -6

Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 18, 2023 7:24:17 GMT -6

Post by Snowman99 on Nov 18, 2023 7:54:02 GMT -6

Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 18, 2023 9:27:14 GMT -6

Post by tedrick65 on Nov 18, 2023 9:31:58 GMT -6

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