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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 29, 2023 10:55:53 GMT -6
The GFS has been pretty consistent trying to spin up something big in the Jan 9th-10th time frame.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 29, 2023 11:02:57 GMT -6
The GFS has been pretty consistent trying to spin up something big in the Jan 9th-10th time frame. That is an STL hot spot time frame… |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 29, 2023 11:16:17 GMT -6
Recharge from this backed up atmosphere with the slow upperlevel stagnant pattern
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Post by weatherj on Dec 29, 2023 11:49:09 GMT -6
Another heavy dusting here this morning. It's definitely not as much as yesterday morning but still pretty nonetheless. I'm considering myself lucky to have had accumulation both nights. I believe that's just it though because most of our precip fell at night and once again it changed to rain after dawn on the tail end of the precip.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 29, 2023 12:31:43 GMT -6
GEM is picking up on that time frame as well...end of GFS 1050 moving out of Canada..Making January Great again!
Go MIZZOU!! Was lucky enough to be there at AT&T stadium last time against Oklahoma State, just couldn't get down there for today.Will be rooted hard from home! Enjoy the game everyone!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 29, 2023 14:04:44 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 29, 2023 14:20:29 GMT -6
They did a great job ruling Florida out of the heavy snow risk 😂 No offense meant to them, but this is basically worthless when so broad both in geographic range and timing. |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 29, 2023 15:13:35 GMT -6
"I know what you're thinking, is that the 5000th or 6000th model run I've looked at." Come to think of it, in all the excitement of the last 4 days of model surfing, I forgot myself, and my laptop battery is dead. Seein' that this is the most powerful weather bureau that money can buy, and they have us outlined for a "SLIGHT CHANCE" of "HEAVY SNOW" along with a mountain range that has a 5,000' elevation advantage to the east of us, and multiple mountain ranges that has 10,000-13,000' advantage in elevation with ALL but a very small portion having the same "SLIGHT CHANCE" of "HEAVY SNOW", you have to ask yourself one question, "Do you feel lucky?" ......................"Well, do you, PUNK? As I pick up my laptop and charger cord and run to the back room to charge it up to scan another model run.😁😁 After all I cannot look at a weather map that is drawn that looks like a figure of Quagmire tiptoeing Eastward while looking back Westward. Your D@^^^/ right I feel lucky.🤪🤪🤪🤪 |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 29, 2023 16:11:46 GMT -6
I have a simple question: what is their definition of heavy? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 29, 2023 21:13:10 GMT -6
This Mizzou game is as slow as our winter 😂
Painful to watch
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 29, 2023 21:34:10 GMT -6
This Mizzou game is as slow as our winter 😂 Painful to watch I am struggling to watch this game I almost rather take a 33° heavy rain then watch this |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 29, 2023 21:53:26 GMT -6
This Mizzou game is as slow as our winter 😂 Painful to watch I am struggling to watch this game I almost rather take a 33° heavy rain then watch this Huge opportunity to take down a blue blood and put the program in a new tier. Ugly game, but they should pull it out. Could be a transformational season for the program. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 29, 2023 22:00:13 GMT -6
Anybody catch that GFS run with 40" of snow in STL 😂  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 29, 2023 22:11:55 GMT -6
why..we could use it, lol if we don't get rain before then, then yeah, maybe a couple inches, but not 4 inches. The gfs today of course has the stl split right up 44 and mostly rain, so book it. I think we could definitely use 1 or 2 inches of rain though. I'm not on the snow bandwagon - I suspect the biggest weather change will be the flip to cold, and not really the snow, as often is the case around here. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 29, 2023 22:33:58 GMT -6
As the 00z models roll in my opinion is January 5th/6th has potential for southern Missouri. Think a 2-5 inch type potential if it happens.
Then, models continue to be insistent that something big is coming around January 10th for the middle of the country.
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sals20
Wishcaster
Imperial, MO.
Posts: 92 
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Post by sals20 on Dec 29, 2023 23:13:20 GMT -6
MIZ!!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 30, 2023 10:29:28 GMT -6
That system towards the middle of next week bears some watching...it looks like there may be just enough cold air lurking for snow potential if that gains enough latitude. The GEM is also showing a snow producing storm towards next weekend that shows up in various flavors on other models.
That third storm in line around the 10th looks like a cutter to me with plenty of ridging ahead of it. We'd want to see some secondary development for snow potential...but that's still way out there. Mid-January is looking pretty chilly with deep troffing across much of the US.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Dec 30, 2023 14:26:31 GMT -6
Really quiet so guess nothing looking promising now
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 30, 2023 15:00:12 GMT -6
Really quiet so guess nothing looking promising now The 12z cycle came in more suppressed with the first storm in line(mid-week) so not looking like much if anything in the near-future. Next weekend still has some potential maybe. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2023 21:44:43 GMT -6
I currently have a spider building a web on my front porch
That tells you all you need to know about this winter
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 31, 2023 7:44:48 GMT -6
Recent model runs, especially from the gfs, are extremely active the first half of January.
I still think next weekend has potential for a light to moderate event for the metro.
The big storm around the 10th is still on the table as well with models struggling on more northern or southern stream influence.
The final variable is if extreme cold will be released around mid January.
We might actually have something to talk about here soon.
But, we all know how this usually goes. Need to get the storms more in the 5-7 day range to start taking anything seriously.
Final observation is this must be an easier pattern for the models to decipher. Even with the change in patterns beginning to take place they have been very consistent in basic timing and potential for storms.
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Post by yypc on Dec 31, 2023 8:07:29 GMT -6
Really need the snowpack to build up north to give us a shot at decent snow. The cold air masses are being killed by the bare ground all the way into Minnesota/Canada.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 31, 2023 10:00:54 GMT -6
0Z EPS has the 850mb low tracking just north of STL on Jan. 9th. 6Z GEFS has it tracking from KC to Davenport, but it did jump south from the 0Z run.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 31, 2023 10:06:36 GMT -6
12z Icon looks great by the 8th
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 31, 2023 10:08:27 GMT -6
I just saw the 0Z ECMWF. That is a deep mid-latitude cyclone.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2023 10:10:26 GMT -6
Well the 12z GFS has a Memphis low this weekend and snowstorm
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 31, 2023 10:15:08 GMT -6
Jan 7th is looking better on the GFS. This is a going to be a complicated pattern because the cyclone on Jan. 7th is going to effect the evolution of the potential cyclone following it around Jan. 9th.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 31, 2023 10:27:43 GMT -6
Ensemble for the 8th to 10th shows significant snow passing to the north of us, to the south of us, and right through us. Fingers crossed for the last option.
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Post by REB on Dec 31, 2023 10:43:56 GMT -6
One of our regular contributors needs prayers for their family. Although not named, please send good thoughts and wishes.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 31, 2023 11:00:04 GMT -6
Prayers sent REB.
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