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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 31, 2023 11:14:22 GMT -6
One of our regular contributors needs prayers for their family. Although not named, please send good thoughts and wishes. Thanks Reb. My mom will probably a lying not be here much longer. So rough time ahead. Thank you guys. |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 31, 2023 11:20:31 GMT -6
One of our regular contributors needs prayers for their family. Although not named, please send good thoughts and wishes. Thanks Reb. My mom will probably a lying not be here much longer. So rough time ahead. Thank you guys. Prayers and condolences sent to you and family during this difficult time. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 31, 2023 11:30:01 GMT -6
One of our regular contributors needs prayers for their family. Although not named, please send good thoughts and wishes. Thanks Reb. My mom will probably a lying not be here much longer. So rough time ahead. Thank you guys. Wishes for peace for you and your family, and a gentle passage for your mom. It's never easy on those left behind. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 31, 2023 11:41:26 GMT -6
So sorry to hear this snowman …. You and your family are in our prayers 🙏
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 31, 2023 11:45:49 GMT -6
Snowman. I am praying for you and your family. Please know that your friends here are all praying for you!
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Post by amstilost on Dec 31, 2023 11:46:35 GMT -6
I just ran across all these data sets. I'm sure some in here already know about them. A Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) set back to 1854. I will link the PDO then the main page of the site. They have the NAO, PDO, AO, and PNA. I am kind of surprised we have been in -PDO since 2017, mostly. There was a 1/2* +PDO in the summer of 2019 but mostly all negative from July, 2017 and continues quite strong as of Dec. 2023. I know Brtn mentions the PDO occassionally. From what I had glanced at it appears our good winters coincide with rather quick changes back and forth over a few months periods. Again, does not appear to be the 'elusive magic bullet' teleconnection. AI might find that one day.  PDO
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 31, 2023 11:59:41 GMT -6
Snowman you and your family are in our thoughts and prayers!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 31, 2023 12:27:24 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is trending towards some winter love for late this week into the weekend. I know some of you have been talking about it at times already. And then there is that Jan 10-15 window. That could be fun... or agonizingly close... followed by winter heartache.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 31, 2023 12:33:49 GMT -6
12z suite is looking really good for something to come together over the next 10 days and maybe beyond.
Multiple scenarios and different opportunities, so we are diversified at least.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 31, 2023 12:37:14 GMT -6
12z euro coming in real nice for southern Missouri Friday/Saturday.
If it comes together just a bit quicker, STL is in play for a nice medium sized event.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Dec 31, 2023 12:42:24 GMT -6
Thanks Reb. My mom will probably a lying not be here much longer. So rough time ahead. Thank you guys. Prayers and condolences sent to you and family during this difficult time. So sorry to hear this and hope all goes as well as possible. You're in our prayers... |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 31, 2023 12:45:47 GMT -6
Been following the weather, models, and forum but nothing much worth talking about yet this season. Perhaps finally something worth following a little more closely in the coming days for next weekend or beyond.
And sorry to hear about the situation with your mom Snowman. I know words may not help much, but thinking about you anyway.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 31, 2023 12:48:39 GMT -6
12z euro might get this place jumping a bit…
986mb low in the bootheel, WOW
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2023 12:54:23 GMT -6
Very sorry to hear about your mom 99
Keeping you in my thoughts and sending love your way
So how about that euro run
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 31, 2023 12:57:15 GMT -6
The general idea I'm seeing from models is that if the first system is suppressed it allows the energy from the second system to dive further south.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 31, 2023 12:58:16 GMT -6
Very sorry Snowman99, wishing you and your family the best during an impossible time.
May the weather offer the smallest of respites for you.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 31, 2023 13:00:03 GMT -6
The general idea I'm seeing from models is that if the first system is suppressed it allows the energy from the second system to dive further south. Still think a double dip is on the table with what the 12z euro just laid down, but the flip side is to come up empty twice 😂 Oh well, finally raised my blood pressure waiting for the next frame of the euro to come out so it finally feels like winter. |
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 395 
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Post by lunchladyd on Dec 31, 2023 13:10:51 GMT -6
So sorry snowman. Sending prayers for your mom, you, and your family.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 31, 2023 13:14:16 GMT -6
Thank you all for the kind words. And yeah the euro was nifty.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 31, 2023 13:18:34 GMT -6
12Z GEFS synoptic structure is in the ballpark for 2nd system on or around Jan. 9th.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 31, 2023 13:33:29 GMT -6
12Z GEFS synoptic structure is in the ballpark for 2nd system on or around Jan. 9th. 12z EPS looks good as well. |
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Post by REB on Dec 31, 2023 13:36:21 GMT -6
Just took Hunter for a walk. It’s chilly.
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Post by Farmtown WX on Dec 31, 2023 13:41:10 GMT -6
So sorry Snowman. Keeping your family in our prayers!
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 327
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Post by bob on Dec 31, 2023 13:43:42 GMT -6
Sorry to hear Snowman. Your family is in our prayers
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 31, 2023 13:50:37 GMT -6
12Z GEFS synoptic structure is in the ballpark for 2nd system on or around Jan. 9th. 12z EPS looks good as well. Yeah, it looks pretty good actually. I mean it's not throwing a perfect strike, but it's there around the zone at least. And surprisingly 850 mb temps stay at or below freezing at the airport the whole time. It just sucks that there is 8 full days for this to potentially fall apart. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2023 14:10:40 GMT -6
Say it with me “I will not get excited this far out” “I will not get excited this far out” “I will not get excited this far out”  |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 31, 2023 14:38:56 GMT -6
There are several snow-on-snow runs in there.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 31, 2023 14:40:45 GMT -6
12z Euro may belong in the hall of fame.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 31, 2023 14:43:16 GMT -6
Jan 7th is looking better on the GFS. This is a going to be a complicated pattern because the cyclone on Jan. 7th is going to affect the evolution of the potential cyclone following it around Jan. 9th. That's why I like forecasting in the cold months! It's the time of the year where there are more variables at play than during the warm months. Thus, there are more possible outcomes. Severe weather is very hard to forecast (not to undermine it) as it usually turns into the nowcasting type of situation. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Dec 31, 2023 14:57:41 GMT -6
Just got back from working with a friend, Wow!! That 12z Euro looks beautiful!! It's only 8 days away but I'm put on my chaps for some model riding..
Sorry Snowman about your Mom. Thoughts and Prayers sent your way!
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