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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 2, 2024 19:31:08 GMT -6
Weather family. It is with a very heavy heart I have to say my mom has now passed. She was loved and was a great mom to me and my sister. Married 56 years to my dad who now needs all the support he can get from his kids. I'm sorry Snowman. Prayers sent. |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 2, 2024 20:55:37 GMT -6
I guess this is another one we will miss on. Hopefully get some cold air and something later this month.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 2, 2024 21:01:33 GMT -6
Was it last year or the year before that we had one, if not two deformation rains in December? I remember there were a few flakes mixed in with the heavy rain on one of them and it was quite insulting. That was either last year or the year before or both. Beautifully formed comma on radar with a wonderfully cold rain. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 2, 2024 21:07:42 GMT -6
Jan 9-11 storm still interesting IMO. There’s still a lot to sort out, with track being one of them. Models will struggle with the pattern change. I think central/northern STL is still ok. Not great, but at least you’re not south of STL.
After cancelling a snowmobile trip to the northwoods due to absolutely no snow whatsoever, I’m a bit salty and frankly don’t care if it snows or rains. It’s a liberating feeling honestly.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 2, 2024 21:13:12 GMT -6
Weather family. It is with a very heavy heart I have to say my mom has now passed. She was loved and was a great mom to me and my sister. Married 56 years to my dad who now needs all the support he can get from his kids. So sorry to hear this Snowman. Prayers for peace, comfort, and strength for you, your sister, and your dad. |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 2, 2024 21:24:02 GMT -6
2 more weeks
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 21:41:50 GMT -6
Lol, it is a week out and the EPS was great.
This place is back to its old self
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 22:15:39 GMT -6
There we go, this will draw some people off the ledge.
00z ggem with a huge shift south and a 982mb low around the bootheel.
Very nice!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 2, 2024 22:15:52 GMT -6
The GFS is going to be a crush job for some
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 22:18:21 GMT -6
The GFS is going to be a crush job for some That is incredible 😂 It bombs and just destroys southwestern and central Missouri. Huge totals all the way into St. Charles! Great runs to get us started tonight. |
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 2, 2024 22:19:51 GMT -6
Just sits and bombs. Verbatim I-44 north and west get hammered, not much metro and south and east.
Canadian great positive move for us.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 2, 2024 22:22:37 GMT -6
This is what you want to see at this range  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 2, 2024 22:24:50 GMT -6
This is what you want to see at this range Goes slightly neg tilt as it strengthens and passes thru our area. Low placement is too far north, but we are still a week out. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2024 22:27:47 GMT -6
The trends in the early guidance this evening remain pretty good... minus the marginal temperatures. That's going to be a concern all the way up to the event.... similar to the storm that produced heavy snow south of St. Louis last year in the higher elevations of SE Missouri... and much less in the metro because the changeover was slowed by lower elevation and urban heating.
My takeaway from the GFS is that it is overblown and deepening too fast and too low which overdrives the warm air advection wing and pumps temperatures up too much to the north/northeast of the upper level low. If you account for what has to be over-deepening in the GFS.. you get something that's not all that different from the GEM actually. I bet a good bit of the rest of the data trends in that direction...if not today...then over the next few days. Track-wise... we are in a good spot still. We just need to balance the need for a deeper dynamic system (to get dynamic cooling aloft) with the need to keep low level temperatures near freezing (which will not happen with a much deeper solution).
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2024 22:30:31 GMT -6
This is what you want to see at this range Goes slightly neg tilt as it strengthens and passes thru our area. Low placement is too far north, but we are still a week out. Location-wise... everything above 850mb looks great to me...just too strong which results in too much warm air advection at those levels for a change to snow. We want the track... just not the intensity. Below 850mb... the features are north of the classic bench marks for most of our viewing area. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2024 22:32:49 GMT -6
At this point... we have all we can ask for 6-8 days out... that being a really dynamic storm to track and follow for the next week. No question, it will end up mostly rain somewhere... maybe in a lot of places... which is not good for snow lovers. But there is definite potential for some significant snow too. It's just too early to say for sure. But if you enjoy a good beefy mid-latitude cyclone to forecast... this one is a beaut!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2024 22:42:43 GMT -6
But don't look at the ICON. Best track... worst temperatures. It would be the ultimate in wasted set-ups.
Considering the lack of preceding cold air... I cannot rule it out. That flavor of an outcome is definitely on the table.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 22:49:58 GMT -6
00z Ukmet is almost in range.
Would extrapolate it to be a bit north of where we want it, but that’s mainly just a guess.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 2, 2024 22:51:35 GMT -6
Goes slightly neg tilt as it strengthens and passes thru our area. Low placement is too far north, but we are still a week out. Location-wise... everything above 850mb looks great to me...just too strong which results in too much warm air advection at those levels for a change to snow. We want the track... just not the intensity. Below 850mb... the features are north of the classic bench marks for most of our viewing area. Yes good clarifying! Though some of the heavier bands seem SW/W/NW of the immediate metro as the low scoots north near STL. Yeah our "friend" climatology would bet on the WAA robbing us with rain even if it's a quality upper level track. Too early for getting too detailed. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2024 22:52:22 GMT -6
00z gfs with a comically perfect setup on MLK weekend.
Keep them coming
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2024 23:13:50 GMT -6
Yes... the fantasy snowfall totals have exploded recently.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 2, 2024 23:43:23 GMT -6
Late to the show tonight. But just looked at 00z models that have completed. Wow on that GFS track and snow amounts!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 3, 2024 0:00:36 GMT -6
But like some have mentioned already. This sucker is wanting to bomb out big time. So the warm air being pulled in is going to be very troublesome.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 0:42:39 GMT -6
00z euro takes the low just north of STL, hammering Central and northeastern Missouri.
Still in the game
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2024 2:15:54 GMT -6
The EPS is much further south than the operational. The intrigue builds!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 6:51:31 GMT -6
6z gfs is south of 00z. Hits the metro hard with the northern tier of counties getting absolutely buried.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 3, 2024 7:03:46 GMT -6
6z gfs is south of 00z. Hits the metro hard with the northern tier of counties getting absolutely buried. That has to be one of the longest storms I’ve ever seen. Gulf is open for business. Just a crush job for Columbia to St Charles to Springfield. Still 5 days out but if this holds in general area that WAA is going to come flying in Monday afternoon. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2024 8:58:51 GMT -6
There goes the NAM juicing things up for this Friday night-Sat morning lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2024 9:09:42 GMT -6
The NBM looks solid at this range. This does include 0.5” to 1” of snow from this weekend  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 9:44:11 GMT -6
12z Icon ejects a bit quicker and creates a bit more of its own cold air preventing a full Rainer for the northern metro.
Track is just south of STL, but it is better than it’s previous runs in my opinion.
On to the next model.
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