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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2024 10:17:28 GMT -6
GFS looks good.
Still showing a powerhouse low
Most of the area would have a heavy hit of front end snow transitioning to rain before a hit of backside snow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2024 10:19:53 GMT -6
850 and 700 go right over stl. meh
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2024 10:23:49 GMT -6
850 and 700 go right over stl. meh Ya ideally we would like the system to come out flatter and not draw so much warm air up. Given the trend the last several years has been for system to trend weaker as we get closer I think we’re in an ok spot. |
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 3, 2024 10:50:03 GMT -6
We really need the rain too. Just wish we could get several inches of snow instead. Ugh
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2024 10:53:19 GMT -6
The GEM continues to show a best case scenario
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 10:59:54 GMT -6
We really need the rain too. Just wish we could get several inches of snow instead. Ugh Then look at the 12z ggem, it is epic. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 3, 2024 11:00:12 GMT -6
UKMET looks good to hour 144 with an 850mb low in SE OK. That is much further south than the GFS.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 11:01:24 GMT -6
This morning’s runs are elite, I can’t believe how dead it is in here.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 3, 2024 11:06:46 GMT -6
UKMET with it's surface low in in southern MS may be too far south. Would be nice to see the evolution to hour 168 since it appears things want to lift northeast quickly from there. But good to see some of these deterministic model darts hitting the southern part of the potential track envelope.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 11:13:26 GMT -6
12z gfs ensemble mean takes the low over STL.
Main snow band from KC to Kirksville to Chicago.
Gfs and it’s ensembles form the northern camp, Ukmet is the southern camp.
Gem is perfect
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 11:14:43 GMT -6
Things are also loaded for MLK weekend on the gem and gfs.
12z gfs has a perfect storm for STL during that time.
Let’s get it!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2024 11:19:44 GMT -6
There are some stark differences in the EPS and GEFS
EPS looks like money for the area with the energy really digging down before lifting northward
The 06z EPS looked even better with a mean surface low in northern Louisiana early Tuesday morning
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2024 11:34:07 GMT -6
I am very skeptical at this point but also know the trend the last couple years has been for a southern trend, whereas the preceeding decade was for a northern trend once you got within 4-5 days.
Also, the models (in particular the GFS) have been overcooking these systems at this range for a couple years now. Still time to sort things out.
Until then, "Oh Canada."
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 3, 2024 11:54:54 GMT -6
Here is the 0Z UKMET at hour 168. It looks like the 850 mb and sfc lows are stacked pretty well and close to St. Louis. It is definitely north of the benchmark.   |
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 3, 2024 12:01:33 GMT -6
Remind us novices again…where are we looking for the 850 placement to ideally be? Particularly STL and south to not be on the rain side of things.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2024 12:02:57 GMT -6
Here is the 0Z UKMET at hour 168. It looks like the 850 mb and sfc lows are stacked pretty well and close to St. Louis. It is definitely north of the benchmark. 12z UKMET is a good bit south of that |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2024 12:15:23 GMT -6
Remind us novices again…where are we looking for the 850 placement to ideally be? Particularly STL and south to not be on the rain side of things. Around Carbondale is ideal for the Metro. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 3, 2024 12:23:56 GMT -6
Just a slight difference between GEM and GFS. One shows a blizzard and the other shows an extremely close scenario that we all have seen 1000 times.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 3, 2024 12:33:10 GMT -6
Just a heads up so nobody is surprised.
IF, IF the GFS is close and hands me 18" of snow over the next 15 days, chances are I will still gripe and moan if Columbia gets 30"..🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪
I'm really liking the GEM's Southward jogs the last several runs that puts me right in the Wheelhouse with 19" just out through 240hrs. I know this is just looking at the snow map but just saying. No doubt even if we strike out with snow the dryness will be taken care of and eliminated.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 12:41:20 GMT -6
12z euro looks a lot like the gfs.
A bit too far north for the metro.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 3, 2024 12:49:58 GMT -6
And right after the saying even if we don't get snow, rain would take care of the dryness around here the Euro shows up and somewhat dry slots my area. It only puts down .9" of rain over 192hrs. Sheesh. Definitely something to track anyway.đź‘Ťđź‘Ť
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2024 12:50:47 GMT -6
12z euro looks a lot like the gfs. A bit too far north for the metro. I want to see if the operational is still on the north end of the ensemble envelope. If EPS comes north too, then we are looking at a solid trend to have more confidence in. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 3, 2024 13:07:24 GMT -6
Here is the 0Z UKMET at hour 168. It looks like the 850 mb and sfc lows are stacked pretty well and close to St. Louis. It is definitely north of the benchmark. 12z UKMET is a good bit south of that Indeed. It's even a hair south of the benchmark now. Again...I'm okay with that since it helps offset the northern solutions of the GFS and ECMWF.   |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 13:07:43 GMT -6
12z euro also has storms on the 12th and over MLK weekend, so we have options.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 3, 2024 13:11:10 GMT -6
It is interesting that we're still 144 hours out and yet models are remarkably close to each other. I mean we're talking about only a 300 mile spread. That is crazy tight at this lead time.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 13:19:59 GMT -6
It is interesting that we're still 144 hours out and yet models are remarkably close to each other. I mean we're talking about only a 300 mile spread. That is crazy tight at this lead time. We are in one of their “easy“ patterns. This storm was picked out at a lead of over 300 hours on the gfs. Incredible |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 3, 2024 13:33:15 GMT -6
GFS looks good. Still showing a powerhouse low Most of the area would have a heavy hit of front end snow transitioning to rain before a hit of backside snow. Happy that we are in the 5-7 day window now. Yeah and the storm it shows on the 14th/15th is pure textbook. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2024 13:35:02 GMT -6
And the EPS shifts north.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 3, 2024 13:35:18 GMT -6
It is interesting that we're still 144 hours out and yet models are remarkably close to each other. I mean we're talking about only a 300 mile spread. That is crazy tight at this lead time. We are in one of their “easy“ patterns. This storm was picked out at a lead of over 300 hours on the gfs. Incredible Ya I've noticed that since they upgraded the GFS. It has gotten better with picking out a storm at the tale end if it's run and pretty much holding onto it leading up to the event. I also unfortunately remember that the models had a storm system they picked up on either last Winter or the yr before. When they all had a darn good agreement all the way up to the event and then it started changing at the last min. |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 3, 2024 13:56:25 GMT -6
And the EPS shifts north. Maybe I still have winter break brain, but is this for this weekend, or early next week? |
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