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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2024 13:59:49 GMT -6
I'd say the trend is pretty clear here.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 3, 2024 14:03:34 GMT -6
And the EPS shifts north. Maybe I still have winter break brain, but is this for this weekend, or early next week? This weekend is not much of anything as of now. Chris’s comment is referring to the Tuesday storm next week |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 3, 2024 14:05:22 GMT -6
Maybe I still have winter break brain, but is this for this weekend, or early next week? This weekend is not much of anything as of now. Chris’s comment is referring to the Tuesday storm next week Thank you! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 14:11:46 GMT -6
I'd say the trend is pretty clear here. I disagree. Looks like 2 camps emerging. Ukmet and GGEM are south. Gfs and euro are north. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 3, 2024 14:17:20 GMT -6
I'd say the trend is pretty clear here. I disagree. Looks like 2 camps emerging. Ukmet and GGEM are south. Gfs and euro are north. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 3, 2024 14:21:24 GMT -6
Lots of time for this to settle..I believe we are still noisy at the moment..honestly I know the Euro is King but..it seems last couple of winters it's deciphering of storms has waffled in the 240-144 range even up to 120..I realize that's expected but I think it's been more than I remember..or I'm just getting old and forgetful..probably the latter..oh well my two cents!! Leaning on OH 🇨🇦.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2024 14:46:53 GMT -6
19z NBM remains largely unchanged from 13z
Maybe a slight jog north
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Post by MakeitRain on Jan 3, 2024 14:54:43 GMT -6
90% chance it’s all rain. History tells us this.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 3, 2024 15:52:58 GMT -6
Looking there the 18z NAM, wanting to drop 4-5 inches up 44 into Jeff Co and just west of me in Waterloo on Friday pm, Sat am. If only..lol. Chris said don't give up on this...so just maybe it's reappearing...
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Post by dschreib on Jan 3, 2024 16:05:08 GMT -6
Remind us novices again…where are we looking for the 850 placement to ideally be? Particularly STL and south to not be on the rain side of things. Around Carbondale is ideal for the Metro. Speak for yourself. I prefer more Olive Branch. |
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 3, 2024 16:07:36 GMT -6
Still lots of time for this thing to waffle. I recall a few storms that changed course the last 12-24 hours. I still remember Christmas Eve 2012 (  ) when Chris came in and said well I guess kids in Evansville are about to the Christmas surprise of a lifetime after we were pegged for 9-15. It happens. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 3, 2024 16:09:15 GMT -6
Remind us novices again…where are we looking for the 850 placement to ideally be? Particularly STL and south to not be on the rain side of things. Around Carbondale is ideal for the Metro. Seriously, though, that's where forecasting snow here is mind-numbing. The distance between Marissa and Brighton is "roughly" the 90 miles needed for the GYB method for the 850mb, right? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2024 16:14:15 GMT -6
I'd say the trend is pretty clear here. I disagree. Looks like 2 camps emerging. Ukmet and GGEM are south. Gfs and euro are north. A blend of the globals still puts us in a good spot...but we don't want to see any further N trend with the GFS/EURO for sure. It looks to me like they lift the storm a bit too quickly...especially the EC, which jumps it way north after it crosses the RRV. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2024 16:19:12 GMT -6
Around Carbondale is ideal for the Metro. Seriously, though, that's where forecasting snow here is mind-numbing. The distance between Marissa and Brighton is "roughly" the 90 miles needed for the GYB method for the 850mb, right? You guys definitely want to see a track of the 850mb low closer to KY vs. S IL. The wrench in the gears is that this storm is currently being modeled as a nearly vertically stacked cyclone, so the mid-level features need to be a bit further south than typical GYB...especially the 500mb low. The dry slot isn't far removed from the h85/700 low track. |
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 3, 2024 16:25:25 GMT -6
My thinking is that if Temperatures will be too warm and it will rain with little if any snow. Both systems. Then you won't be mad at the world:)
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2024 17:01:16 GMT -6
18z GEFS is a tick south of the 12 suite
That puts it roughly in line with the EPS of the low going through SE MO
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2024 17:04:55 GMT -6
My thinking is that if Temperatures will be too warm and it will rain with little if any snow. Both systems. Then you won't be mad at the world:) I don't know why I am just now deciding to bring this up... but everytime I see your profile and screen name... I think cigar. Guess there is a little dyslexia in my brain.. lol. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2024 17:14:03 GMT -6
When the gfs and euro agree they’re tough to beat. Kind of a Yadi Waino thing!
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 3, 2024 17:14:49 GMT -6
We are so close to something special and yet we all know how this will likely play out …. These last 3 or 4 years have been brutal lol
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 3, 2024 19:17:30 GMT -6
My thinking is that if Temperatures will be too warm and it will rain with little if any snow. Both systems. Then you won't be mad at the world:) I don't know why I am just now deciding to bring this up... but everytime I see your profile and screen name... I think cigar. Guess there is a little dyslexia in my brain.. lol. That's funny Chris. It's Craig backwards. I think it was Oprah back in the day that gave me this idea. Her production was called HARPO Studios. I was editing home video and named my Videos by giarC Productions... |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2024 20:20:06 GMT -6
When the gfs and euro agree they’re tough to beat. Kind of a Yadi Waino thing! Unless they agree on St. Louis being ground zero for a blizzard. Then you can be certain there will be a shift and they are wrong. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2024 20:29:51 GMT -6
Meh
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 3, 2024 20:38:07 GMT -6
When the gfs and euro agree they’re tough to beat. Kind of a Yadi Waino thing! Unless they agree on St. Louis being ground zero for a blizzard. Then you can be certain there will be a shift and they are wrong. Groundhog Day Storm in 2011. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 20:38:35 GMT -6
18z euro ensemble mean is a touch south of 12z.
987mb low around the bootheel.
Not bad.
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 3, 2024 20:39:09 GMT -6
Hi-Res NAM drops an inch or so Friday night for we southern folk. May need it because I think we’ll be singing in the rain Tuesday.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2024 20:41:15 GMT -6
I need to pay a little more attention to the Saturday night shortwave. It has been something that has been hinted at as a weak precipitation producer... but most of the attention has been on it's predecessor and the early week storm. But there might just be a little something to that Saturday night shortwave too.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2024 22:09:57 GMT -6
and boom goes the GFS
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Post by thechaser on Jan 3, 2024 22:10:21 GMT -6
Well, the 0z GFS is a good run. Wow lol
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 3, 2024 22:11:08 GMT -6
And the GFS gives us a blizzard lol
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Post by thechaser on Jan 3, 2024 22:12:05 GMT -6
Impressive 850mb winds with that snow.
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) when Chris came in and said well I guess kids in Evansville are about to the Christmas surprise of a lifetime after we were pegged for 9-15. It happens. 
