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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2024 22:12:31 GMT -6
 Considering how far into the future this system is... you have to be impressed with how focused in the models actually are right now. Yes, there are some big sensible differences in what could happen in any one spot. But the fact that we are six days out and the models have been emphatically pointing at somewhere in MO and IL for a big system with statistically small variations is pretty impressive.
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Post by thechaser on Jan 3, 2024 22:14:50 GMT -6
Even the positive snow depth change is impressive with that type of wind.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2024 22:17:47 GMT -6
I cant wait to see these GFS snowfall maps floating around social media lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 22:20:29 GMT -6
00z ggem should get the southern counties back onboard đ
Wow
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 3, 2024 22:27:43 GMT -6
I cant wait to see these GFS snowfall maps floating around social media lol The Kuchera method only has 16.6 for STL lol |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 3, 2024 22:42:57 GMT -6
That coupled jet at 250 on the GFS is a beaut Clark
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2024 22:48:04 GMT -6
Gfs and GGEM keep the line moving through MLK weekend with some brutal cold trying to be released after another big storm.
Buckle up
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 3, 2024 22:49:29 GMT -6
UKMET track looks good, but temperatures are a problem.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2024 22:50:19 GMT -6
The UK has a Memphis low... but brings it almost straight north.
And it throws the 850mb 0c line well to the west for a time as the low pulls north. It has a strong warm surge northeast of the low...strongest of the evening models so far.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 3, 2024 22:53:35 GMT -6
UKMET goes bomb mode. 25 mb drop in 24 hours.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2024 23:07:40 GMT -6
GEFS has trended south/cooler over each of the last three runs...especially at 850mb
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 3, 2024 23:20:23 GMT -6
So as of now now should we get a jumpstart on the typical preps to beat the rush? Or hold off a bit.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 3, 2024 23:25:30 GMT -6
What is so funny is that fact that we try so hard to never move on to the next system. We should be focusing on Fri and Sat.
But how can you when this cyclone keeps continuing its trend!!! I mean, it's so hard not getting super exciting everytime. We always get sucked in!!! For the first time in a long time. I'm getting those excited chills back that I haven't felt in some time.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 3, 2024 23:34:12 GMT -6
What is so funny is that fact that we try so hard to never move on to the next system. We should be focusing on Fri and Sat. But how can you when this cyclone keeps continuing its trend!!! I mean, it's so hard not getting super exciting everytime. We always get sucked in!!! For the first time in a long time. I'm getting those excited chills back that I haven't felt in some time. I think part of that itâs been boring around here weather wise. Even if it is a bust itâs something to do. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 0:02:18 GMT -6
So as of now now should we get a jumpstart on the typical preps to beat the rush? Or hold off a bit. No need to jump start in my opinion. Just time to watch and see how it goes the next few days. A lot can, and will change, over the next few days. Unless it takes you 6 days to get ready, I think you're fine to wait until sometime this weekend. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2024 0:30:21 GMT -6
00z euro is further southeast, should be a big run for the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2024 0:34:23 GMT -6
Euro is a big hit on the backside.
Models all agree on an powerful winter storm hitting the area in 5 days
What could go wrong lol
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 4, 2024 1:01:01 GMT -6
Euro is a big hit on the backside. Models all agree on an powerful winter storm hitting the area in 5 days What could go wrong lol Haha, ya. Good one. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 4, 2024 4:19:19 GMT -6
Hard to ask for much more than what 06z gfs prints out.
Doesnât get much healthier than that defo.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 4:38:00 GMT -6
Hard to ask for much more than what 06z gfs prints out. Doesnât get much healthier than that defo. That's a pretty big shift in the 06z GFS! Slower to deepen and hence somewhat flatter... and now more to the east/southeast. We don't want any more southeas shift than that at this point. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2024 5:06:45 GMT -6
Hard to ask for much more than what 06z gfs prints out. Doesnât get much healthier than that defo. That's a pretty big shift in the 06z GFS! Slower to deepen and hence somewhat flatter... and now more to the east/southeast. We don't want any more southeas shift than that at this point. Looks like the GEFS doesnât agree with that shift south. The mean is a touch north of 00z, but a hair weaker. Probably just noise for the operational run. |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 4, 2024 7:15:32 GMT -6
Can we just lock the 06z GFS in and convince ourselves it's the final outcome?....lol. That is a great run and is a half foot + for the entire viewing area. A crush job for showtime and dschreib!
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Post by MakeitRain on Jan 4, 2024 7:34:20 GMT -6
90% chance of rain.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2024 7:40:26 GMT -6
NWS of Chicago pointed out the Friday time period as being crucial to modeling as the wave generating the potential storm will break off from an Aleutian low.
Should have a decent handle on things Saturday then, so we are getting close.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 4, 2024 7:51:37 GMT -6
There's always a few of people around who feel the need to piddle in the punch bowl. |
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Jan 4, 2024 7:57:55 GMT -6
Thanks for the valuable insight |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 8:01:43 GMT -6
I thought we took out the trash a couple years ago?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 4, 2024 8:22:36 GMT -6
This thing reminded me of that system in december a couple years ago (maybe last year?), where it turned n-nw, and st louis got the rain, wind and backside snow.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 4, 2024 8:25:58 GMT -6
My thinking is that if Temperatures will be too warm and it will rain with little if any snow. Both systems. Then you won't be mad at the world:) I don't know why I am just now deciding to bring this up... but everytime I see your profile and screen name... I think cigar. Guess there is a little dyslexia in my brain.. lol. Haha, i had the exact same thought. I just thought he was into cigars. I now realize its his name spelled backwards. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 4, 2024 8:30:42 GMT -6
Can we just lock the 06z GFS in and convince ourselves it's the final outcome?....lol. That is a great run and is a half foot + for the entire viewing area. A crush job for showtime and dschreib! This almost guarantees a cold rain or sleetfest. |
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