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Post by stegenwx on Jan 4, 2024 8:34:15 GMT -6
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Post by dschreib on Jan 4, 2024 8:35:46 GMT -6
But yeah, go ahead and sign me up for that (edit) and I'll take my chances.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 4, 2024 8:40:23 GMT -6
That graphic lines up well with my conceptual thoughts on where it seems like the areas of heaviest snow are more likely. With no antecedent cP ams in place, i just dont see how this can not turn north, as weve seen previous storms like this do. However, maybe the bigger picture is entirely different. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2024 8:51:03 GMT -6
Hmmm. The 13z NBM slashed snow totals across the area to only an inch or two.
QPF stayed roughly the same so I can only guess it has mostly rain for the area
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 4, 2024 9:10:05 GMT -6
I have a feeling that if the model trends continue today they will come around… They always seem to error on the side of caution lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2024 9:10:42 GMT -6
Hmmm. The 13z NBM slashed snow totals across the area to only an inch or two. QPF stayed roughly the same so I can only guess it has mostly rain for the area I really hope this doesn't end up like that storm last year that bombed out over the benchmark and sprayed us with heavy cold rain. That's a distinct possibility. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 4, 2024 9:26:02 GMT -6
BRTN, we need rain too! For that drought!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2024 9:37:43 GMT -6
BRTN, we need rain too! For that drought! The precipitation is a given...the snow is not |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 4, 2024 9:44:28 GMT -6
BRTN, we need rain too! For that drought! The precipitation is a given...the snow is not If only it were ummJanuary….. lol |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 10:13:29 GMT -6
A bit of a trend starting to show up on the models illustrating the separation between the WAA portion of this system and the back end associated with the low. GFS at 12z shows this clearly, as did the Euro last night. Overall you have a weaker system, but we would be in a good spot in this scenario if the temps cooperate.
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Post by MakeitRain on Jan 4, 2024 10:14:11 GMT -6
12z GFS is a certified blizzard with up to a foot of snow at 4-5 days. You couldn’t write a better script for dissappointment. 😂
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Post by dschreib on Jan 4, 2024 10:23:13 GMT -6
BRTN, we need rain too! For that drought! The precipitation is a given...the snow is not We'd just rather have 18" of snow that melts and soaks in more slowly. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 4, 2024 10:23:55 GMT -6
I like what I see with the 12z GFS. Just wish it wasn't 5 days out.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 4, 2024 10:40:07 GMT -6
A bit of a trend starting to show up on the models illustrating the separation between the WAA portion of this system and the back end associated with the low. GFS at 12z shows this clearly, as did the Euro last night. Overall you have a weaker system, but we would be in a good spot in this scenario if the temps cooperate. The slower strengthening is going to help us. It was mentioned in the AM AFD today. Still not getting my hopes up. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 4, 2024 10:49:04 GMT -6
Seems like a 3-5, 4-6 type storm when it's all said and done. The fact that we stay near or above 32* for the duration is a bit concerning.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2024 10:55:06 GMT -6
some places will get wellnorth of 6 I think. Models are showing some intense snow rates. Power outages could be a concern withe heavy wet snow and strong winds
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 11:25:57 GMT -6
The two phase storm is definitely on the table... but it's possible that phase 1 and 2 do not overlap which will keep numbers on the low side I would think. Compaction, melting and marginal temperatures will eat into totals as well. And if there is a break between rounds, temperatures could be allowed to rebound ...melting some of what's fallen already. All of which keeps me holding to more of a moderate impact event... despite the fact that the storm itself still looks quite intense.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 4, 2024 11:28:23 GMT -6
So as of now now should we get a jumpstart on the typical preps to beat the rush? Or hold off a bit. No need to jump start in my opinion. Just time to watch and see how it goes the next few days. A lot can, and will change, over the next few days. Unless it takes you 6 days to get ready, I think you're fine to wait until sometime this weekend. Na just meant to beat the rush if this develops. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 4, 2024 11:32:02 GMT -6
Hmmm. The 13z NBM slashed snow totals across the area to only an inch or two. QPF stayed roughly the same so I can only guess it has mostly rain for the area I really hope this doesn't end up like that storm last year that bombed out over the benchmark and sprayed us with heavy cold rain. That's a distinct possibility. It would be nice to have an unmitigated path for the cold air to take. The reality is though that from source to destination is brown. Some of it coming across an area that is still seeing a significant drought. That is concern #1 for me. However, that is mitigated somewhat by a vertically stacked system, so the ability of the storm to create its own cold is a bit greater IMO. As with any storm the last five years, there will be distinct winners and losers. Personally, I think the Godfrey area will be on the southern most portion of the snow, potentially even up to the northern counties of the viewing area. Those east of the metro better be preparing themselves for a nice cold rain, myself included up in SPI, IMO. QIN and COL seem safe at this point. All of that said, a slightly weaker or stronger system will be the determining factor I think. Stupid phasing. Just my .2 cents at this point. Trying not to get caught up in finer details right now. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 11:32:19 GMT -6
GEFS is still north of the bench marks with a sfc low in southeast missouri and 850mb passing right over STL. Using those as the guide still puts the greatest potential for significant snow north of I-44 in MO and NW of I-55 in Illinois (roughly).
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 11:36:38 GMT -6
UK echoes the above thinking and is "warm" for STL metro and points southeast through midday Tuesday.
I agree with maddog... I wouldn't get too excited southeast of STL based on recent operational trends. The ensembles are the best way to smooth out the noise at this point... and they still favor more rain and less snow for much of the area...especially southeast of I-44 and east of I-55.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2024 12:02:23 GMT -6
Definitely siding with lower snowfall potential here...2-4" as a starting point...and that's IF we see a changeover
I just don't have a good feeling about this one given how things have gone lately.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2024 12:08:25 GMT -6
Definitely siding with lower snowfall potential here...2-4" as a starting point...and that's IF we see a changeover I just don't have a good feeling about this one given how things have gone lately. I agree. I just don’t have a great feeling about this one even though some models look excellent. Borderline situations always find a way to go wrong here lol. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2024 12:19:31 GMT -6
WHERE'S THE OPTIMISM PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I need positive thoughts...
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 12:24:29 GMT -6
Euro is gonna go wagons north.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 4, 2024 12:27:38 GMT -6
Lol, here we go.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2024 12:32:57 GMT -6
Fugly
dammit
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 12:37:39 GMT -6
Everything remains on target for an interesting weather system. It has behaved in the models as expected so far, with not unexpected flip flops... and the struggle with marginal temps is real and has been well vocalized in here. Again, it is important for the lurkers and public to be reminded that a meteorologically potent storm does not = a big snow in everyone's backyard. And here in St. Louis, they are rare to begin with. That doesn't make them any less interesting to track and forecast. I said days ago that the GFS was probably over deepening and hence too far northwest. But that it was a fine line of getting enough deepening to cool dynamically from above without pulling too much warmth in from the south. It seems tge GFS is backing away from the extreme deepening, while still showing a potent storm system. Still lots of time... and two other small systems... to get past first.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 4, 2024 12:40:02 GMT -6
When skewts hug 30-31-32 for several thousand feet, we usually end up with a cold rain.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 4, 2024 12:46:00 GMT -6
12z GEM was quite far south. Looks like a battle between the GFS/GEM and the EURO/UK?? Split down the middle might be the best approach.
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