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Post by cozpregon on Jan 4, 2024 12:54:10 GMT -6
To me... the upper level features on the Euro this afternoon do not line up with the surface features. I will guess the later runs will again shift south.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2024 13:15:01 GMT -6
To me... the upper level features on the Euro this afternoon do not line up with the surface features. I will guess the later runs will again shift south. Your snowfall event totals caught my eye. In the last 10 years, there have only been 2 winters with snowfall totals above 20"! Winter of 2012 to 2013 would have been over 20" with the Palm Sunday Storm (March 24, 2013) sealing the deal. |
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 4, 2024 13:16:57 GMT -6
I can see/hear Milli Vanilli lip syncing already,”….🎶Blame it on the Rain🎶
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 4, 2024 13:22:53 GMT -6
I'm keeping it Positive!! It will Snow...that is all..actually I'm all in on Snow..but the Cold Arctic Hammer on the Euro and GEM at end of the runs..is insane..1057 hp..GEM, 1050 Euro..or close too it..as it enters the Pacific NW the anomaly is -50 plus degrees unbelievable if it materializes can you imagine the media Polar Vortex talk then..GOT.."Winter is Coming"
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2024 13:49:32 GMT -6
I really hope this doesn't end up like that storm last year that bombed out over the benchmark and sprayed us with heavy cold rain. That's a distinct possibility. It would be nice to have an unmitigated path for the cold air to take. The reality is though that from source to destination is brown. Some of it coming across an area that is still seeing a significant drought. That is concern #1 for me. However, that is mitigated somewhat by a vertically stacked system, so the ability of the storm to create its own cold is a bit greater IMO. As with any storm the last five years, there will be distinct winners and losers. Personally, I think the Godfrey area will be on the southern most portion of the snow, potentially even up to the northern counties of the viewing area. Those east of the metro better be preparing themselves for a nice cold rain, myself included up in SPI, IMO. QIN and COL seem safe at this point. All of that said, a slightly weaker or stronger system will be the determining factor I think. Stupid phasing. Just my .2 cents at this point. Trying not to get caught up in finer details right now. Yeah the snowfield doesn't look good. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 4, 2024 14:16:13 GMT -6
12z GEM was quite far south. Looks like a battle between the GFS/GEM and the EURO/UK?? Split down the middle might be the best approach. Ya usually one side caves to the others. Or they have a agreement in the middle somewhere. Which to me an agreement in the middle doesn't happen as much as the other outcome. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 4, 2024 14:17:19 GMT -6
Lots of snow bunnies north of us are starving. No reason why we would get to eat before them
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 4, 2024 14:20:19 GMT -6
It would be nice to have an unmitigated path for the cold air to take. The reality is though that from source to destination is brown. Some of it coming across an area that is still seeing a significant drought. That is concern #1 for me. However, that is mitigated somewhat by a vertically stacked system, so the ability of the storm to create its own cold is a bit greater IMO. As with any storm the last five years, there will be distinct winners and losers. Personally, I think the Godfrey area will be on the southern most portion of the snow, potentially even up to the northern counties of the viewing area. Those east of the metro better be preparing themselves for a nice cold rain, myself included up in SPI, IMO. QIN and COL seem safe at this point. All of that said, a slightly weaker or stronger system will be the determining factor I think. Stupid phasing. Just my .2 cents at this point. Trying not to get caught up in finer details right now. Yeah the snowfield doesn't look good. As of Tuesday the UC - Berkeley site in the Sierras that does the snowpack test was measuring only 38% of average. |
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 4, 2024 15:48:27 GMT -6
Marginal temps typically ends up biting us. When people talk about late rain changing to snow, melting and compaction, many people will be disappointed with such a large storm and what could be lots of snow if temperatures were below freezing. Good thing is time to sort out all the details over the weekend. -cigar
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2024 15:52:30 GMT -6
To me... the upper level features on the Euro this afternoon do not line up with the surface features. I will guess the later runs will again shift south. Seems like we had at least a couple storms last winter that were modeled at this range as being vertically stacked and they came into more of a classic GYB configuration. And they tended to trend S/weaker with time. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2024 16:11:36 GMT -6
18z gfs wobbled back north of 12z.
Has the narrowest “death band” dropping incredible amounts of snow through Lincoln county.
Cutoff this run is basically St. Charles.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 4, 2024 16:17:01 GMT -6
18z gfs wobbled back north of 12z. Has the narrowest “death band” dropping incredible amounts of snow through Lincoln county. Cutoff this run is basically St. Charles. Not going to happen. But I'd be good with that. Lol Point is models are coming in either north or warmer or both. So the trend is not in our favor. I'd imagine this will be the trend for next 24 hrs or so. Then praying they'll adjust back in our wheelhouse. |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
Member is Online
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Post by bob on Jan 4, 2024 16:22:12 GMT -6
Reading through everything today sounds like another miss for us?
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2024 16:22:15 GMT -6
The stronger the system becomes means it's more likely someone is going to get dry slotted (caught in no man's land) on the deformation side of the system. That wouldn't be good if the majority of the WAA portion of this system could be rain (yes some wet snow too). I cherry picked a sounding and it's way too close for comfort. The high over the northern Rockies needs to shift further SE. I'll gladly take a flatter and weaker system relatively speaking if that means we don't get hosed with rain and then dryslotted. Luckily it's only Thursday. As others have said, once we get to Saturday we can start adding true confidence to the forecast.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2024 16:29:16 GMT -6
18z gfs wobbled back north of 12z. Has the narrowest “death band” dropping incredible amounts of snow through Lincoln county. Cutoff this run is basically St. Charles. Not going to happen. But I'd be good with that. Lol Point is models are coming in either north or warmer or both. So the trend is not in our favor. I'd imagine this will be the trend for next 24 hrs or so. Then praying they'll adjust back in our wheelhouse. I don’t get where the trend talk is coming from, at least on the operational model side. 12z gfs and GGEM were both south, not north. Ggem was way too south. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 4, 2024 16:52:46 GMT -6
This run of the GFS pretty much stinks ……. We went from Jackpot to nothing on this side of the river ……. It’s insane how we have to beg for snow around here anymore
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Post by TK on Jan 4, 2024 17:07:42 GMT -6
It would be nice to have an unmitigated path for the cold air to take. The reality is though that from source to destination is brown. Some of it coming across an area that is still seeing a significant drought. That is concern #1 for me. However, that is mitigated somewhat by a vertically stacked system, so the ability of the storm to create its own cold is a bit greater IMO. As with any storm the last five years, there will be distinct winners and losers. Personally, I think the Godfrey area will be on the southern most portion of the snow, potentially even up to the northern counties of the viewing area. Those east of the metro better be preparing themselves for a nice cold rain, myself included up in SPI, IMO. QIN and COL seem safe at this point. All of that said, a slightly weaker or stronger system will be the determining factor I think. Stupid phasing. Just my .2 cents at this point. Trying not to get caught up in finer details right now. Yeah the snowfield doesn't look good. cool site - Tks |
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228
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Post by steve on Jan 4, 2024 17:09:15 GMT -6
I forgot the stages but RELAX. The overall setup still looks good for an impact storm. The exact placement of heavy snow at this point isn’t everything. If on Saturday things do not look great for your particular location, then we have issues. Saying all this, I also live model run to run lol
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Post by TK on Jan 4, 2024 17:17:03 GMT -6
12z GEM was quite far south. Looks like a battle between the GFS/GEM and the EURO/UK?? Split down the middle might be the best approach. I agree- The models are obviously battling with N and S track. LONG way to go people....Relax.... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2024 17:31:43 GMT -6
After looking at today's runs, I still think we're in a decent spot at this range. The GFS seems to be a nice compromise between the EC(north) and GEM(south) and the GEFS is just a bit north of the operational run but still supports some backside snowfall in/around the Metro.
The GFS has a considerably stronger surface ridge across the top of the ejecting storm, so we need to keep an eye on how that trends the next few days.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2024 17:38:57 GMT -6
GEM ensemble mean is about perfect with a 995mb SLP crossing the benchmark and the 500mb low lifting across SE MO/S IL. The EC is pretty well on it's own currently which is good.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 4, 2024 17:47:22 GMT -6
Glenn being real aggressive with his wording, talking about preparing for snow days on Tuesday. Slippery slope, no pun intended.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 18:16:32 GMT -6
^Unbelievable.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 4, 2024 18:22:36 GMT -6
After looking at today's runs, I still think we're in a decent spot at this range. The GFS seems to be a nice compromise between the EC(north) and GEM(south) and the GEFS is just a bit north of the operational run but still supports some backside snowfall in/around the Metro. The GFS has a considerably stronger surface ridge across the top of the ejecting storm, so we need to keep an eye on how that trends the next few days. At this range, I’m just glad the models still have a storm. Rain, snow, sleet, ice, or anything. I still remember the days where at this range a storm placement would move 3-500+ miles. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 4, 2024 18:54:37 GMT -6
Glen is probably fine with his wording….. the northern 3rd probably will get accumulating snow
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 4, 2024 18:59:53 GMT -6
Not going to happen. But I'd be good with that. Lol Point is models are coming in either north or warmer or both. So the trend is not in our favor. I'd imagine this will be the trend for next 24 hrs or so. Then praying they'll adjust back in our wheelhouse. I don’t get where the trend talk is coming from, at least on the operational model side. 12z gfs and GGEM were both south, not north. Ggem was way too south. I'm just talking about the rain vs snow line. Not necessarily the low itself. My bad. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 19:39:17 GMT -6
This system is definitely living up to the billing of "interesting" I just peaked over at the 12z Icon... and it is very slow pulling this thing together and really doesn't bring snow into the area until Tuesday night. But does show an narrow, but impressive looking band setting up over eastern/southeastern Missouri. In some ways... this system reminds me of the March 2008 storm that exploded right on top of us...with that super narrow mesoscale band that dumped 10 inches in a little more than 2 hours at my place in Chesterfield. Easily the heaviest snow I've experienced as an adult. I think it was this one... www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us0304.php |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 4, 2024 19:40:05 GMT -6
 Dave keeping it real lol! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2024 19:44:07 GMT -6
18z EPS is still pretty amped taking the low just south of STL.
Some absolute bombs in there.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 4, 2024 19:58:51 GMT -6
This system is definitely living up to the billing of "interesting" I just peaked over at the 12z Icon... and it is very slow pulling this thing together and really doesn't bring snow into the area until Tuesday night. But does show an narrow, but impressive looking band setting up over eastern/southeastern Missouri. In some ways... this system reminds me of the March 2008 storm that exploded right on top of us...with that super narrow mesoscale band that dumped 10 inches in a little more than 2 hours at my place in Chesterfield. Easily the heaviest snow I've experienced as an adult. I think it was this one... www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us0304.phpHad 11” in crestwood on that one |
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