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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 4, 2024 20:04:15 GMT -6
You have this from the STL NWS
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Post by dschreib on Jan 4, 2024 20:12:39 GMT -6
This system is definitely living up to the billing of "interesting" I just peaked over at the 12z Icon... and it is very slow pulling this thing together and really doesn't bring snow into the area until Tuesday night. But does show an narrow, but impressive looking band setting up over eastern/southeastern Missouri. In some ways... this system reminds me of the March 2008 storm that exploded right on top of us...with that super narrow mesoscale band that dumped 10 inches in a little more than 2 hours at my place in Chesterfield. Easily the heaviest snow I've experienced as an adult. I think it was this one... www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us0304.phpHad 11” in crestwood on that one We got a rock in Marissa with that one. Maybe an inch, if you closed one eye and squinted really hard. And I think most of that was sleet.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 4, 2024 20:19:02 GMT -6
The Air Force is going to send one of its hurricane hunter aircraft out to sample the storm tomorrow afternoon. The data will be available for the 0Z models tomorrow evening.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75 (CORRECTED)
A. 06/0000Z
B. AFXXX 04WSE IOP12
C. 05/1745Z
D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
35.0N 150.0W, 35.0N 125.0W, 55.0N 125.0W, AND 55.0N 150.0W
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 05/2030Z TO 06/0230Z
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FOR THE 07/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FOR THE 08/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 4, 2024 20:27:51 GMT -6
Had 11” in crestwood on that one We got a rock in Marissa with that one. Maybe an inch, if you closed one eye and squinted really hard. And I think most of that was sleet.
That was a very narrow band of that heavy snow- I'd say less than 20 miles wide |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 4, 2024 20:32:30 GMT -6
We got a rock in Marissa with that one. Maybe an inch, if you closed one eye and squinted really hard. And I think most of that was sleet.
That was a very narrow band of that heavy snow- I'd say less than 20 miles wide I was at work in Sauget when it happened. I think we had around 6" there, but dwindled to nothing by the time I got home. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 4, 2024 20:38:09 GMT -6
That was a very narrow band of that heavy snow- I'd say less than 20 miles wide I was at work in Sauget when it happened. I think we had around 6" there, but dwindled to nothing by the time I got home. I was working at 64/Timberlake where we got hammered with snow. I couldn’t leave because it was coming down so hard I feared getting stuck. Once it ended, I drove home to shovel the driveway so I could get the compacted cement shoveled so my 8 month pregnant wife could get into the garage. I know Mehlville saw a lot but I couldn’t measure as it was compacted way down. My pop dropped off a snowblower so I could get it cleared in time. It was an amazing snow. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 4, 2024 21:12:22 GMT -6
I assume frivs won't be joining us this season?
Haven't seen him post in awhile.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 4, 2024 21:30:48 GMT -6
March 8th, 2008. I mention that one a lot on here, the heaviest snow I've ever seen when it was RIPPING overnight. We ended up with right at 14" in my spot in Florissant/Hazelwood, measured several places. BRTN I recall had a similar experience with that storm.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 4, 2024 21:34:31 GMT -6
Correction, March 4th. Just looked up the NWS story, somehow Lambert only saw 10.0, while I had 14 a few miles away and Overland had 13.5. LOL.
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 4, 2024 21:39:49 GMT -6
Can someone smarter than me explain why the “system” tomorrow evening falls apart? Looks fairly robust / decent as it moves across KS, OK, AR. Robbed from the south or something else?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 21:50:38 GMT -6
Can someone smarter than me explain why the “system” tomorrow evening falls apart? Looks fairly robust / decent as it moves across KS, OK, AR. Robbed from the south or something else? The shortwave trough becomes less sharp as it moves east into a ridge... it is de-amplifying which weakens the lift ahead of it. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 4, 2024 21:50:39 GMT -6
 Dry air... Gulf moisture is well SE |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 21:55:39 GMT -6
This system is definitely living up to the billing of "interesting" I just peaked over at the 12z Icon... and it is very slow pulling this thing together and really doesn't bring snow into the area until Tuesday night. But does show an narrow, but impressive looking band setting up over eastern/southeastern Missouri. In some ways... this system reminds me of the March 2008 storm that exploded right on top of us...with that super narrow mesoscale band that dumped 10 inches in a little more than 2 hours at my place in Chesterfield. Easily the heaviest snow I've experienced as an adult. I think it was this one... www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us0304.phpThat one angered me more than probably any other system, ever. The bands just sat from a Park Hills to Festus line points north and never moved south. I was in line for 5-9” basically until the bands took shape and that had to be adjusted. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 21:55:43 GMT -6
Dry air... Gulf moisture is well SE And this |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 21:57:36 GMT -6
00z GFS is back to rapid intensification mode in OK.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 4, 2024 22:01:22 GMT -6
The Air Force is going to send one of its hurricane hunter aircraft out to sample the storm tomorrow afternoon. The data will be available for the 0Z models tomorrow evening. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75 (CORRECTED)
A. 06/0000Z
B. AFXXX 04WSE IOP12
C. 05/1745Z
D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
35.0N 150.0W, 35.0N 125.0W, 55.0N 125.0W, AND 55.0N 150.0W
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 05/2030Z TO 06/0230Z
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FOR THE 07/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FOR THE 08/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.I don’t know how the hurricane hunter pilots do it. We’d fly through rain and I’d get nervous. But, most of the time it was in a late 70s model Blackhawk with pilots who primarily flew VFR. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2024 22:03:14 GMT -6
00z gfs is a Memphis low and then bombs hard.
Crazy death band just west of STL
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2024 22:05:14 GMT -6
99 would never get to complain again if that GFS run verified
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 22:06:18 GMT -6
99 would never get to complain again if that GFS run verified The man deserves to have mother nature throw him a bone with this one. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2024 22:07:35 GMT -6
00z ggem remains the southern outlier
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 4, 2024 22:08:40 GMT -6
How far west of stlouis?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2024 22:11:03 GMT -6
Lol. I need this.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2024 22:11:08 GMT -6
The soundings from that GFS "death band" are wild This would be heavy heavy snow with monster flakes Probably some thunder as well  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2024 22:11:12 GMT -6
STL catches a little, but St. Charles gets crushed verbatim from the gfs. 00z ggem basically misses everyone north west of STL. So everything’s on the table |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 22:12:27 GMT -6
Verbatim... anything west of Hwy 47 and IMMEDIATELY along and north of the Missouri River... and west of I-55 in Illinois. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 22:14:36 GMT -6
STL catches a little, but St. Charles gets crushed verbatim from the gfs. 00z ggem basically misses everyone north west of STL. So everything’s on the table It's worth pointing out that last year the GEM had a knack for sniffing out storm tracks. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 22:18:20 GMT -6
LOL... the GEM and GFS could not be more opposite with the heavy snow band. Basically just flip the GFS over to the southeast side of the metro and you get the GEM.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2024 22:18:42 GMT -6
It may be all the alcohol imbibed tonight..or all week but I kinda like where we are at this point
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 22:19:11 GMT -6
Random question for the group. Does anyone from out in Washington Co. or Sullivan area know of anyone (old friends, family, etc.) who worked in the Pea Ridge Iron mine back when it was open?
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2024 22:24:17 GMT -6
The soundings from that GFS "death band" are wild This would be heavy heavy snow with monster flakes Probably some thunder as well It's getting real when the term "death band" is used. Very fun to look at. Just hope you're in the band. With that kind of setup comes a crazy tight snow gradient as others have mentioned. |
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