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Post by RyanD on Jan 4, 2024 22:25:30 GMT -6
boy if the Canadian would just be right this time LOL
I was dumb and bought a cheap electric snowblower that's supposed to be here Sat so I know I already jinxed my chances.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 22:33:12 GMT -6
ICON is much further north and nearly all rain for most of the viewing area except for maybe Pike, Montgomery and Lincoln counties in Missouri.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2024 22:34:53 GMT -6
00z gfs has two more storms through MLK weekend and incredible cold building into the region.
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Post by MakeitRain on Jan 4, 2024 22:34:57 GMT -6
I would argue the CMC is more bullish for STL at this stage. Good to see it.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 4, 2024 22:36:26 GMT -6
boy if the Canadian would just be right this time LOL I was dumb and bought a cheap electric snowblower that's supposed to be here Sat so I know I already jinxed my chances. I bought 2 snow joes two years ago and have used them once ….. I am the jinx lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2024 22:37:34 GMT -6
Still a good spread in GEFS members. Not that that's unexpected this far out.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 22:41:17 GMT -6
I do wonder if the ensembles are going to struggle some with placement because we are not going to have a single surface low. This system will be cycling occlusions and new triple points lows. That may be messing with the ensemble math.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 22:43:26 GMT -6
The GEFS track is essentially unchanged... with only very small variations over the last several runs... both in location and intensity... which is mighty impressive. That doesn't mean it's correct... but the general track is pretty solid.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2024 22:44:55 GMT -6
boy if the Canadian would just be right this time LOL I was dumb and bought a cheap electric snowblower that's supposed to be here Sat so I know I already jinxed my chances. Haha it looks even better for you in IL than the earlier 12z and 00z runs. Less impressive further west. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2024 22:48:52 GMT -6
00z Ukmet is in the north camp
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 23:32:16 GMT -6
My take on Tuesday as of right now... It's terribly vague... but that's what is justified at this stage of the game.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 4, 2024 23:46:54 GMT -6
Might want to take that storm track more south to north
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2024 23:57:43 GMT -6
Might want to take that storm track more south to north In time.... it's more of a stylized view of the track. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 5, 2024 0:00:44 GMT -6
The Euro is interest into tomorrow evening for the southeastern half of the area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2024 0:30:26 GMT -6
The euro sets up the heavy precep band right up along 44 into the metro.
It looks pretty toasty though.
Mixing would be an issue even on the backside
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 5, 2024 0:37:41 GMT -6
The euro sets up the heavy precep band right up along 44 into the metro. It looks pretty toasty though. Mixing would be an issue even on the backside A very real possibility. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 5, 2024 0:40:45 GMT -6
In a Euro-esque type solution, time of day may play a key role in precip type and potential accumulation.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 5, 2024 2:41:20 GMT -6
The Air Force is going to send one of its hurricane hunter aircraft out to sample the storm tomorrow afternoon. The data will be available for the 0Z models tomorrow evening. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75 (CORRECTED)
A. 06/0000Z
B. AFXXX 04WSE IOP12
C. 05/1745Z
D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
35.0N 150.0W, 35.0N 125.0W, 55.0N 125.0W, AND 55.0N 150.0W
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 05/2030Z TO 06/0230Z
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FOR THE 07/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FOR THE 08/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.What time is that CST? 1430? I may try to locate it on Flight Aware. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 5, 2024 2:45:14 GMT -6
00z gfs has two more storms through MLK weekend and incredible cold building into the region. Did I see right? 60 below for Montana over MLK weekend? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 5, 2024 6:16:51 GMT -6
Last couple cycles of the GFS look good for the N/W counties including the Metro...it's been remarkably consistent.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2024 7:01:47 GMT -6
6z nam is interesting for tonight into tomorrow.
Has the southern viewing area picking up a couple inches.
11z HRRR picking up on this as well.
6z euro looks to have it too.
So, an appetizer could be on the way.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 5, 2024 7:11:29 GMT -6
6z nam is interesting for tonight into tomorrow. Has the southern viewing area picking up a couple inches. 11z HRRR picking up on this as well. 6z euro looks to have it too. So, an appetizer could be on the way. That may be the only snow I see over here in the east for a week..lol. So be it, I'll take it if it can materialize. I hope someone to the west gets wacked good early next week. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2024 7:14:36 GMT -6
6z EPS looks great for most of the metro (favoring those southwest and northeast).
6z gfs had an absolutely insane run with a barrage of storms dropping tons of snow for the northern metro.
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Jan 5, 2024 7:24:29 GMT -6
6z EPS looks great for most of the metro (favoring those southwest and northeast). 6z gfs had an absolutely insane run with a barrage of storms dropping tons of snow for the northern metro. 6z EPS looks great for early next week? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2024 7:30:27 GMT -6
6z EPS looks great for most of the metro (favoring those southwest and northeast). 6z gfs had an absolutely insane run with a barrage of storms dropping tons of snow for the northern metro. 6z EPS looks great for early next week? Sorry, yes. 6z EPS was referring to the Tuesday storm. Although, it is solid for the southern counties tonight into tomorrow as well. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 5, 2024 7:40:45 GMT -6
Tonight storm kind of reminds me of that surprise Snow last November…… All the short term models started showing accumulating snow the morning of the storm
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 8:39:16 GMT -6
Does seem like the models this morning do seem to want to jackpot the metro area tonight with a couple inches of snow, so a weaker more borderline scenario of 11/11/2022 is on the table, but anything over 2 inches is going to be hard to find. A inch or so on the grass, roof tops and cars isn't out of the question. If it does cool more quickly, or precip is heavier then maybe 3" in a spot or 2, but not the 4-8" we got back in November 2022. That was something special what was only supposed to be a dusting or less.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2024 8:52:02 GMT -6
Nam is almost in range, that’s when you know it’s getting real.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 5, 2024 8:54:02 GMT -6
I do not envy the folks that have to put out a public forecast for this one.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 5, 2024 9:07:41 GMT -6
After pulling up the 06 GFS and looking at the 500 & 850 vorticity mapz it's like, those look like very good tracks for us. And I say 'us' but I guess I would be considered East Central Missouri. So then I look at the precip type map going through the 15 days, wow that looks pretty good. The third storm, kind of hard for me to believe is going to be rain, IF we get the modeled "Glacier" to form. And then I go to the snow accumulation Map.😳😳😳🙏🙏🙏
Even with that third storm being mostly rain here the 15-day totals dropped 21 inches of snow on me and 42 just north Northeast of me.... IF ONLY.😁 Is that even possible? why would a model show that when it is so highly unlikely. I guess that's the biases everyone talks about we have to deal with. Maybe the true definition of a "Clown Map". It's fun to get back to 'surfing' though.😁😁👍👍
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