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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 5, 2024 9:19:31 GMT -6
Might not be the most ideal setup temperature wise but if you are under that deformation band Tuesday evening it’s going to have no issues adding up. Especially with sun going down and heavy precip rates.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 5, 2024 9:31:53 GMT -6
Nam is almost in range, that’s when you know it’s getting real. Except most of the solutions from the NAM aren’t real. Lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2024 9:55:58 GMT -6
12z Icon favors Springfield, MO to Hannibal for the heaviest band.
Can really see the complexity with multiple energy hand offs and new dominant lows developing.
It also has a monster on the 12th/13th but is advertising it as a cutter.
Extreme cold being dumped on the other side of that storm.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2024 9:58:51 GMT -6
The gfs came substantially north this run with the 850 low.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2024 10:00:09 GMT -6
Goes from 3 inches to 12 inches from east to west in St.Charles County.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 5, 2024 10:08:59 GMT -6
Tonight keeps looking better and better with each run of the hrrr
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 5, 2024 10:15:31 GMT -6
GDPS still very far south with the Tuesday system. Has the 850mb low close to southern AR compared to GFS which is up in central MO.
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 5, 2024 10:18:17 GMT -6
Cold rain, then dry slotted, ahhhh yes. That will verify.
The parade of storms going north and west will be fun to watch.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2024 10:19:01 GMT -6
There was more than one instance last year when the GEM was off on its own with a system and ended up being right.
Maybe the case again?
And ya tonight is looking interesting for the SE half of the area
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 5, 2024 10:23:42 GMT -6
There was more than one instance last year when the GEM was off on its own with a system and ended up being right. Maybe the case again? And ya tonight is looking interesting for the SE half of the area |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 5, 2024 10:24:20 GMT -6
For what it's worth...I love Canada 🇨🇦!! Please 🙏 be right!
The GFS wants to slaughter us from next week on...damn wish this would all happen!
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Post by dschreib on Jan 5, 2024 10:32:25 GMT -6
Canada has planted its flag and isn't budging.
Edit: Then drops a potential crippling ice storm from AR to the bootheel the following weekend...but one (or two, incl tonight) storm at a time.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 5, 2024 10:32:38 GMT -6
The Canadian will pull of real weather coups if it is correct.
I still think the super deep solutions are likely deepening to quickly... but it's hard to hang my hat on that at the moment. But it has definitely happened before. Usually, it's when the heavy snow is forecast to be right on STL... the model over deepens and we end up with a flatter storm that misses us to the south.
There is no question the pattern favors a rapidly deepening cyclone... but how fast is too fast... that is crux of the question. That's why the ensembles are the best approach to smoothing out the track flip/flops and intensity variances.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 5, 2024 10:36:30 GMT -6
I will be in Florida from the 10th through the 16th so as fate would have it Tuesday will probably be a dud and something epic will happen after while I'm out of town.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2024 10:46:16 GMT -6
Ukmet is great along and northwest of 44 including the metro. Good trend on that model.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jan 5, 2024 10:47:57 GMT -6
Just boarded plane to LA layover in KC I'll let ya know what happening @30,000 ft ❄️ ✈️
Hope it's not to bad we got 30 min to board next flight 😬
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Post by amstilost on Jan 5, 2024 10:55:37 GMT -6
And looking at all the GFS 12 run data now we got a little snow this evening/overnight, the second Storm is mostly rain looking at 850mb data until it passes for the change-over, the third storm is now snow. 🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪 it will be interesting to watch and verify which model was correct and then pin our hopes on that model for the rest of the winter.🤔🤔😁
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 5, 2024 11:02:38 GMT -6
And looking at all the GFS 12 run data now we got a little snow this evening/overnight, the second Storm is mostly rain looking at 850mb data until it passes for the change-over, the third storm is now snow. 🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪 it will be interesting to watch and verify which model was correct and then pin our hopes on that model for the rest of the winter.🤔🤔😁 A little snow tonight should be no suprise to MTW followers  I've been calling for that all week |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2024 11:05:32 GMT -6
12z UKMET looks a lot like the euro last night
Good track and heavy precep band placement, but questionable p-types
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Post by amstilost on Jan 5, 2024 11:06:48 GMT -6
And looking at all the GFS 12 run data now we got a little snow this evening/overnight, the second Storm is mostly rain looking at 850mb data until it passes for the change-over, the third storm is now snow. 🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪 it will be interesting to watch and verify which model was correct and then pin our hopes on that model for the rest of the winter.🤔🤔😁 A little snow tonight should be no suprise to MTW followers I've been calling for that all week 😁👍👍 Definitely the one thing the models show is it's going to be active.🤞🤞 |
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mrbogs
Weather Weenie
Posts: 19 
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Post by mrbogs on Jan 5, 2024 11:08:27 GMT -6
I may have missed it, but can you gurus give me a time line for tonight's episode? I work the 2nd shift and have to drive around 11:00-midnight.
Thanks guys (and Chris)!
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 5, 2024 11:09:14 GMT -6
The Canadian will pull of real weather coups if it is correct. I still think the super deep solutions are likely deepening to quickly... but it's hard to hang my hat on that at the moment. But it has definitely happened before. Usually, it's when the heavy snow is forecast to be right on STL... the model over deepens and we end up with a flatter storm that misses us to the south. There is no question the pattern favors a rapidly deepening cyclone... but how fast is too fast... that is crux of the question. That's why the ensembles are the best approach to smoothing out the track flip/flops and intensity variances. I’m doubting the rapid deepening. The injection of the northern branch isn’t all that stout that would justify that rapid intensification, IMO. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 5, 2024 11:33:29 GMT -6
The Canadian will pull of real weather coups if it is correct. I still think the super deep solutions are likely deepening to quickly... but it's hard to hang my hat on that at the moment. But it has definitely happened before. Usually, it's when the heavy snow is forecast to be right on STL... the model over deepens and we end up with a flatter storm that misses us to the south. There is no question the pattern favors a rapidly deepening cyclone... but how fast is too fast... that is crux of the question. That's why the ensembles are the best approach to smoothing out the track flip/flops and intensity variances. I’m doubting the rapid deepening. The injection of the northern branch isn’t all that stout that would justify that rapid intensification, IMO. It should deepen quickly... I just think these new high-res models go overboard in how fast and how deep they go. I also would expect the GEM is alittle muted/flat based on the jet energy. A mix of the two would be ideal |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 5, 2024 11:35:14 GMT -6
The squirrles have been going absolutely nuts on my deck today! Maybe they know something is coming?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2024 11:42:42 GMT -6
Seeing several 2-3” reports out of NW Arkansas this morning
Maybe a sign of things to come later
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jan 5, 2024 11:47:12 GMT -6
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jan 5, 2024 11:47:35 GMT -6
Light snow at KC Airport ✈️ ❄️
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2024 11:52:52 GMT -6
The squirrles have been going absolutely nuts on my deck today! Maybe they know something is coming? That has been the case up here in Chicago too. One even got some bread out of my trash can, so I guess this is a bread and milk storm 😂 |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2024 11:54:47 GMT -6
For tonight...snowfall rates currently around Little Rock are fairly impressive, and even a good coating on the ground on some of the traffic cams. Time of day and further development may lend to a little bonus tonight for some. Maybe a nice little appetizer before the crap sandwich Tuesday!
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Post by weatherj on Jan 5, 2024 12:08:50 GMT -6
For tonight...snowfall rates currently around Little Rock are fairly impressive, and even a good coating on the ground on some of the traffic cams. Time of day and further development may lend to a little bonus tonight for some. Maybe a nice little appetizer before the crap sandwich Tuesday! If only the GEM could verify |
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I've been calling for that all week 
