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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 6, 2024 1:21:10 GMT -6
Nice advisory from the NWS tonight- I’m closing in on 4” Unless something has changed, advisories are being phased out in the future. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2024 1:26:21 GMT -6
Huh
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 6, 2024 1:40:22 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2024 1:45:52 GMT -6
When I forecasted for the DOT and airports... they scheduled their shifts specifically around those advisories.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 6, 2024 1:48:37 GMT -6
When I forecasted for the DOT and airports... they scheduled their shifts specifically around those advisories. Yeah... times are changing. It is still several years away and it will definitely take some getting used to. I miss the old "Travelers Advisory" days which of course dates me. |
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Post by WeatherLes on Jan 6, 2024 1:48:46 GMT -6
Well hello all, long time since I’ve been on. Just gonna give a report and say I Loved tonight’s snowfall. We 3” in Barnhart tonight and still have some flurries right now.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2024 1:52:55 GMT -6
Guessing it's just going to private weather firms
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2024 1:54:27 GMT -6
When I forecasted for the DOT and airports... they scheduled their shifts specifically around those advisories. Yeah... times are changing. It is still several years away and it will definitely take some getting used to. I miss the old "Travelers Advisory" days which of course dates me. Stockman's Advisories in the Plains |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 6, 2024 2:06:22 GMT -6
3.0 measured inches here in Cedar Hill at 2:00 am.!
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 6, 2024 3:22:35 GMT -6
Just got back from salting! Was unexpected how roads were snow packed in St.Peters. was at 3 inches when I left, got home still have 3 on my truck bed.
So im guessing we maxed close to 3.5.
All in all that was a very nice suprise snow event.
Time for bed. Night yall!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2024 3:57:53 GMT -6
M1.3" in Brighton.
The 00z runs continue to show good potential for snowfall across the NW half of the area or so Tuesday...maybe 2/3 if the GEM scores a coup with the further S/colder scenario.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2024 4:08:06 GMT -6
Models are starting to show a pivot occurring as the storm passes due to rapid occlusion and negative tilt...that may help to keep us under the "death band" on the backside a bit longer Tuesday evening.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 6, 2024 4:47:36 GMT -6
Holy smokes to the 06z GFS for next Friday. Whopper!
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Post by bororug on Jan 6, 2024 5:47:05 GMT -6
3.5” at Hwy 61/55 in Festus.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 6, 2024 5:48:55 GMT -6
That was a nice little over performer. Let’s keep that trend going.
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Post by sgdragons on Jan 6, 2024 6:20:55 GMT -6
Was definitely snowing harder than I expected around 10:30 down here. Few inches here in Bloomsdale on our vehicles/pacement. Foggy when I took the dogs out.
Nice performance by that system
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 6, 2024 7:19:20 GMT -6
Which model best forecast last nights surprise a few days out? Maybe that model should be leaned on as we approach Tuesday and next weekend.
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Post by dragons7stegen on Jan 6, 2024 7:24:49 GMT -6
I was in Arnold about 7:30 pm last night and the flakes (cotton ball in size) were some of largest I had seen in some time, it was a sight to see. Then I had to drive home, and lets just say I was happy to get home and sleep in a warm bed. Interstate 55 was a mess or partially snow covered in spots. I saw one salt truck by the time I got home, but was glad everyone was slowing down and making there way through it cautiously. Looking forward to continuing to follow the interesting weather here over the next 7-10 days.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 6, 2024 7:25:21 GMT -6
Measured 2.2" but there is already a good bit of melting going on so I likely had more.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 8:17:34 GMT -6
Which model best forecast last nights surprise a few days out? Maybe that model should be leaned on as we approach Tuesday and next weekend. None of them. Nam picked up on it a little, but is obviously way on its own with the Tuesday and should be discounted until within 48 hours. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 6, 2024 8:21:37 GMT -6
Which model best forecast last nights surprise a few days out? Maybe that model should be leaned on as we approach Tuesday and next weekend. None of them. Nam picked up on it a little, but is obviously way on its own with the Tuesday and should be discounted until within 48 hours. The short term models HRRR and Rap nailed this thing….. they also had last November’s surprise …… but I have seen these two models out to lunch on a storm lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 8:46:09 GMT -6
None of them. Nam picked up on it a little, but is obviously way on its own with the Tuesday and should be discounted until within 48 hours. The short term models HRRR and Rap nailed this thing….. they also had last November’s surprise …… but I have seen these two models out to lunch on a storm lol I excluded them because they won’t be helpful on the Tuesday system for a bit still. But yes, they did a pretty good job overall. Global models picked up on it about 18 hours before the event and really upped it at 12z yesterday, so hardly any lead time. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 6, 2024 8:48:47 GMT -6
Nam keeps its north track
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 8:48:56 GMT -6
12z nam is still extremely far north so same craziness as always for it.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 6, 2024 9:09:55 GMT -6
The 0Z UKMET has the potent storm on Friday as well. Verbatim it is way too warm for anything frozen though at least on the main surge. The backside looks to be snowy though.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 6, 2024 9:15:26 GMT -6
I am starting to see possibly a consenses for warning criteria snow tuesday along and northwest of 44 and 55 tuesday. Ukmet still looks good in my opinion for some heavy wet snow on the backside
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 6, 2024 9:22:25 GMT -6
Yeah they lowered the criteria from 6 in to 5 in for a watch/warning I believe. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2024 9:25:05 GMT -6
The 06z GFS looks great. It develops a double barreled low with the trailing low nearly stalling for several hours just to our E/NE. If we can hold onto that death band into Tuesday evening, totals will really get a boost.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 6, 2024 9:47:12 GMT -6
Any news from the hurricane hunters yet?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 9:49:40 GMT -6
12z Icon is north for Tuesday, but absolutely epic Friday/Saturday for the metro.
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