|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 10:47:28 GMT -6
12z Ukmet is north for Tuesday.
I expect a subtle return south over the next 36 hours giving Lincoln county and north a warning criteria snow.
I think south of there will be tough to get much more than an inch or 2.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 6, 2024 10:49:28 GMT -6
UKmet well north. Tuesday looking more and more like rain to cold for majority. Maybe an inch on back side.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 6, 2024 10:52:16 GMT -6
Surface low on GEM for Tuesday is an absolute perfect track. Just can’t get the temps.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2024 10:54:29 GMT -6
UKmet well north. Tuesday looking more and more like rain to cold for majority. Maybe an inch on back side. This was my original concern with so much ridging out front and overall lack of cold air. Still some potential there, but we don't want any further N shifts. I don't have a great feeling about the Friday storm either...for the same reasons. We want to see that come out flatter and not phase early. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 10:57:57 GMT -6
UKmet well north. Tuesday looking more and more like rain to cold for majority. Maybe an inch on back side. This was my original concern with so much ridging out front and overall lack of cold air. Still some potential there, but we don't want any further N shifts. I don't have a great feeling about the Friday storm either...for the same reasons. We want to see that come out flatter and not phase early. Friday system has a lot of cold air to tap, but high pressure is west of the bench mark. Thus, I would expect it to cut more like the Icon than the gfs. Tremendous potential with that one. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2024 10:58:52 GMT -6
UKmet well north. Tuesday looking more and more like rain to cold for majority. Maybe an inch on back side. This was my original concern with so much ridging out front and overall lack of cold air. Still some potential there, but we don't want any further N shifts. I don't have a great feeling about the Friday storm either...for the same reasons. We want to see that come out flatter and not phase early. Fridays system shouldn’t be lacking any cold air connection. Most of the models show the arctic air in place over the area as the trough begins to eject. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2024 11:01:49 GMT -6
This was my original concern with so much ridging out front and overall lack of cold air. Still some potential there, but we don't want any further N shifts. I don't have a great feeling about the Friday storm either...for the same reasons. We want to see that come out flatter and not phase early. Fridays system shouldn’t be lacking any cold air connection. Most of the models show the arctic air in place over the area as the trough begins to eject. It's definitely a better setup, but some of these models balloon the ridge out front which raises the cutting potential. The vortex sitting over SW Canada as it ejects isn't ideal. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2024 11:05:31 GMT -6
Fridays system shouldn’t be lacking any cold air connection. Most of the models show the arctic air in place over the area as the trough begins to eject. It's definitely a better setup, but some of these models balloon the ridge out front which raises the cutting potential. The vortex sitting over SW Canada as it ejects isn't ideal. There’s always the potential for a cutter, but with this kind of blocking over the top id be surprised.  |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 6, 2024 11:05:39 GMT -6
The fact that the jet max has rounded the base and max winds are all on the eastern side of the trough when it gets here Tuesday argue for more of a northward push. The GEFS and much of the other guidance takes the core features right up I-44 and over STL... (850/700 lows) with 500 displace a bit south.
We may get some WAA snow with the leading surge Monday night, but then it's over to rain for most of us. Rain will change back to snow Tuesday afternoon as colder winds sweep back in. I could see maybe a 1-3 type snow in the metro with some minor to moderate impacts because of the wind. But the bulkier totals will end up northwest of the metro... Montgomery County up to Pike... and maybe parts of Lincoln County. That's where some 5+ snows are likely IMO. Could maybe toss in northern Gasconade too.
I'll take a closer look later today. I have "Saturday" stuff to do... along with helping my son buy a new/used car. I hate buying cars... I would rather go to the dentist and get a root canal. No offense to car dealers... I just hate spending that much money!
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2024 11:15:53 GMT -6
It's definitely a better setup, but some of these models balloon the ridge out front which raises the cutting potential. The vortex sitting over SW Canada as it ejects isn't ideal. There’s always the potential for a cutter, but with this kind of blocking over the top id be surprised. That looks a lot better than some of the runs I've seen...with the vortex further E |
|
|
|
Post by sgdragons on Jan 6, 2024 11:24:58 GMT -6
I wouldn’t mind getting our first week back to school knocked out without a missed day in the middle of the week. I’m ok with Tuesday being rain(again, we needed here). Bring it on for Friday though!
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jan 6, 2024 12:09:58 GMT -6
Either the 06z or 12z GFS snow totals thru 384 would be 'acceptable' 7 miles west of De Soto. Puts me smack dab in the middle with 14-18" of snow.  The Glacier builds either north and west of me on the 06 run or south and east of me on the 12 run. And with the ICON pulling back south, still over STL, but shows backside snows and it has the MOAB on the 13th. We would all need "calm down meds" if that were to happen.  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2024 12:18:22 GMT -6
Euro has a 991mb low across the MO boothill Tuesday morning
By Tuesday evening it has a 978mb low in central IL
That is rapid deepening
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 12:21:20 GMT -6
Euro has a 991mb low across the MO boothill Tuesday morning By Tuesday evening it has a 978mb low in central IL That is rapid deepening Need it to get slightly further east before that rapid deepening. This run is good for Lincoln county. St. Charles is on the edge. My guess is models dampen this just a bit, but Peoria will be the big winner. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2024 12:26:16 GMT -6
euro gives a few inches on the front end..then the defo band moves thru with several more
after rain
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2024 12:26:37 GMT -6
Euro has a 991mb low across the MO boothill Tuesday morning By Tuesday evening it has a 978mb low in central IL That is rapid deepening Need it to get slightly further east before that rapid deepening. This run is good for Lincoln county. St. Charles is on the edge. My guess is models dampen this just a bit, but Peoria will be the big winner. You’re definitely going to want the low to bomb out further east or Chicago proper will be stuck with the dreaded warm easterly wind off Lake Michigan. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2024 12:28:01 GMT -6
I agree...COU to PIA is the sweet spot for Tuesday
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 12:36:13 GMT -6
12z euro looks nice for Friday/Saturday.
Definitely a south track there, which is good at this range.
More realistic intensity too.
Plenty of room for it to come north and smack the region.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2024 12:39:03 GMT -6
way way se for fri
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 12:40:22 GMT -6
That’s exactly where we want it this far out. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 13:02:21 GMT -6
12z euro is stupid cold by mid January.
-8 F showing up at the airport.
-30 F wind chills making an appearance.
12z ggem has -60 F wind chills showing up in Wyoming.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 6, 2024 13:15:57 GMT -6
0Z UKMET is pretty far north for storm #1. It throws a strike for storm #2. The 850 mb low goes through the bootheel. I have limited information between 144-168, but it looks like maybe 6" at the airport and 12" around Farmington using the standard 12:1 climatology. Temperatures look good with the 0 C isotherm bisecting the 850 mb low. It is moving pretty fast. Overall it has a classic GYB look. i.imgur.com/OasY9lI.png |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 6, 2024 13:23:10 GMT -6
For storm #2...
12Z EPS sends the 850 mb low right through the strike zone.
12Z GEFS lost the cohesive closed 850 mb low.
12Z GEPS sends the 850 mb low north of I-44.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2024 13:24:11 GMT -6
|
|
steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
|
Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 13:30:22 GMT -6
Sorry, but what does EPS mean?
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 6, 2024 13:34:55 GMT -6
Sorry, but what does EPS mean? Ensemble Prediction System. It is an ECMWF model that is a model-of-models systems that runs 51 different simulations of how the current atmosphere/land/ocean state will evolve in the near future. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 14:43:52 GMT -6
18z nam remains ridiculously far northwest for Tuesday.
It will probably right itself around 12z tomorrow
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 6, 2024 14:45:35 GMT -6
My goodness... the 18z NAM is even further north...only snow is with the warm front/oclussion on the front end and then nothing...anywhere in Missouri lol. If that is the final outcome, then the globals will go from amazingly consistent to epic failures as none of them have been remotely close to that far north.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 6, 2024 14:46:24 GMT -6
Not sure if this is only for paying folks, but Pivotal Weather has added the Icon!
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 6, 2024 15:07:20 GMT -6
They must have just added that right? Don't remember seeing it there this morning...nice.
|
|
The Glacier builds either north and west of me on the 06 run or south and east of me on the 12 run. And with the ICON pulling back south, still over STL, but shows backside snows and it has the MOAB on the 13th. We would all need "calm down meds" if that were to happen. 
