|
|
Post by TK on Jan 6, 2024 15:13:03 GMT -6
My goodness... the 18z NAM is even further north...only snow is with the warm front/oclussion on the front end and then nothing...anywhere in Missouri lol. If that is the final outcome, then the globals will go from amazingly consistent to epic failures as none of them have been remotely close to that far north. stl I thought the party for Tues storm was over as of yday....The NWS posted Winter Storm Warnings yday in W KS and now NW MO. They pulled the trigger with confidence yday taking STL out of the picture. Am I missing something why we are surprised of the N trend or were they going by different models? |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 15:26:00 GMT -6
My goodness... the 18z NAM is even further north...only snow is with the warm front/oclussion on the front end and then nothing...anywhere in Missouri lol. If that is the final outcome, then the globals will go from amazingly consistent to epic failures as none of them have been remotely close to that far north. stl I thought the party for Tues storm was over as of yday....The NWS posted Winter Storm Warnings yday in W KS and now NW MO. They pulled the trigger with confidence yday taking STL out of the picture. Am I missing something why we are surprised of the N trend or were they going by different models? Kansas/western Missouri were always going to get the WAA portion of the storm. Them being under warnings doesn’t negate some of the metro getting a storm. They would also feel the effects earlier, so of course the headlines go up there first. The nam takes the main system way northwest of any other model. The nam is wrong. Models like the gfs give the northern counties a warning criteria snow on Tuesday. |
|
|
|
Post by TK on Jan 6, 2024 15:32:31 GMT -6
I thought the party for Tues storm was over as of yday....The NWS posted Winter Storm Warnings yday in W KS and now NW MO. They pulled the trigger with confidence yday taking STL out of the picture. Am I missing something why we are surprised of the N trend or were they going by different models? Kansas/western Missouri were always going to get the WAA portion of the storm. Them being under warnings doesn’t negate some of the metro getting a storm. They would also feel the effects earlier, so of course the headlines go up there first. The nam takes the main system way northwest of any other model. The nam is wrong. Models like the gfs give the northern counties a warning criteria snow on Tuesday. Tks WS -Definitely know warnings go up earlier out West but they are going WNW as you can see...Are they putting their reputation totally on the NAM then? |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2024 15:40:48 GMT -6
Latest NBM is not very fun for Tuesday Its alot more fun for Fridays system  |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 15:41:46 GMT -6
Kansas/western Missouri were always going to get the WAA portion of the storm. Them being under warnings doesn’t negate some of the metro getting a storm. They would also feel the effects earlier, so of course the headlines go up there first. The nam takes the main system way northwest of any other model. The nam is wrong. Models like the gfs give the northern counties a warning criteria snow on Tuesday. Tks WS -Definitely know warnings go up earlier out West but they are going WNW as you can see...Are they putting their reputation totally on the NAM then? No, I’m saying that region is getting hit by a different part of the storm than we are really focused on at this point in STL. The deformation zone is what we are hoping to cash in on. Most models have that close to the northern counties. The nam is still outside it’s reliability zone and showing it can’t do much outside of 60 hours. |
|
|
|
Post by TK on Jan 6, 2024 15:52:44 GMT -6
Tks WS -Definitely know warnings go up earlier out West but they are going WNW as you can see...Are they putting their reputation totally on the NAM then? No, I’m saying that region is getting hit by a different part of the storm than we are really focused on at this point in STL. The deformation zone is what we are hoping to cash in on. Most models have that close to the northern counties. The nam is still outside it’s reliability zone and showing it can’t do much outside of 60 hours. Still hard to hope on backbuild with such a North trend- You never know but the trends look disappointing... |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 15:56:28 GMT -6
No, I’m saying that region is getting hit by a different part of the storm than we are really focused on at this point in STL. The deformation zone is what we are hoping to cash in on. Most models have that close to the northern counties. The nam is still outside it’s reliability zone and showing it can’t do much outside of 60 hours. Still hard to hope on backbuild with such a North trend- You never know but the trends look disappointing... I agree this looks way worse than a couple days ago. I’m just saying the nam and it’s solution have nothing to do with the watches last night and it’s ridiculous outlier is worth noting to emphasize it can’t be taken seriously at the end of its range. |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 6, 2024 15:58:18 GMT -6
This evenings GFS is even more north for Tuesday…… 3/4 of the area gets next to nothing……….. like Chris said pike county and to the north
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2024 15:58:28 GMT -6
The 18z GFS shifted north as well
Is the NAM about to pull the coup
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 6, 2024 16:02:05 GMT -6
I thought the party for Tues storm was over as of yday....The NWS posted Winter Storm Warnings yday in W KS and now NW MO. They pulled the trigger with confidence yday taking STL out of the picture. Am I missing something why we are surprised of the N trend or were they going by different models? Kansas/western Missouri were always going to get the WAA portion of the storm. Them being under warnings doesn’t negate some of the metro getting a storm. They would also feel the effects earlier, so of course the headlines go up there first. The nam takes the main system way northwest of any other model. The nam is wrong. Models like the gfs give the northern counties a warning criteria snow on Tuesday. There are no warnings in Missouri... only watches. There is a big difference. |
|
steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
|
Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 16:02:46 GMT -6
Still time for changes but definitely looking like disappointment for Tuesday
|
|
steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228
|
Post by steve on Jan 6, 2024 16:05:55 GMT -6
Like Mr. Murray says, this thing still needs to go over the Rockies!
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 16:07:45 GMT -6
Still time for changes but definitely looking like disappointment for Tuesday This is why storm diversification is so important! |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 16:10:27 GMT -6
The 18z GFS shifted north as well Is the NAM about to pull the coup They are still worlds apart |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 6, 2024 16:15:02 GMT -6
Good news is Friday is still looking epic on the GFS
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 6, 2024 16:25:50 GMT -6
These models are always so crazy! And that's putting it lightly. Lol Just a couple of days ago. They were all( at least most of them), south. Now they are going north. Just ridiculous changes. I hope they move south over the next day or so and correct themselves. Now do I expect them to hit souther areas hard, no. But at least our entire viewing getting something would be nice. I don't want a cold rain with little snow. **NWS posted this half hr ago.  |
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Jan 6, 2024 16:26:32 GMT -6
So Tues has improved so there is a Dr appt in the morning I’d like to keep at MO Bap. We drive from Festus!
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2024 16:28:09 GMT -6
18z is epic for Friday. A true blizzard.
So, either way lots to watch.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 6, 2024 16:30:20 GMT -6
18z is epic for Friday. A true blizzard. So, either way lots to watch. As real as it would ever get. 22 runs to go. |
|
|
|
Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 6, 2024 16:30:25 GMT -6
18z is epic for Friday. A true blizzard. So, either way lots to watch. |
|
|
|
Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 6, 2024 16:30:45 GMT -6
Please let this happen!!lol
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 6, 2024 16:33:54 GMT -6
Ya I i finally just paid for a subscription to Pivotal weather the other day. Only a $10 a month plan.
I don't remember much about the Icon being added. Just didn't use it much. Always Tidbits. Just because the format was so easy to use. But the past week I started getting on Pivotal again. I just love their maps and you can get local maps for some models right up to STL region with the paid plan. So very very nice!
|
|
|
|
Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 6, 2024 16:37:02 GMT -6
Good news is Friday is still looking epic on the GFS Tuesday storm looked epic for us too at this point. Now... not so much anymore. |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 6, 2024 16:37:05 GMT -6
Like this... This is snowfall 10:1 ratio 18Z GFS for Tuesday storm. Very nice  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2024 16:39:19 GMT -6
10:1 is not going to be very useful with this system
The best bet is to always use positive snow depth change
|
|
|
|
Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 6, 2024 16:41:07 GMT -6
We REALLY need the rain, but what is so frustrating is that there are plenty of warm months for rain, but very few cold months that could produce snow! Hate wasting opportunity for snow.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 6, 2024 16:41:52 GMT -6
10:1 is not going to be very useful with this system The best bet is to always use positive snow depth change That was just an example. But thank you. I actually didn't know that. Will look at that from now on as more reliable. 👍👍 |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 6, 2024 16:44:02 GMT -6
Ok, ya. Big difference!  |
|
|
|
Post by TK on Jan 6, 2024 16:47:27 GMT -6
Good news is Friday is still looking epic on the GFS Tuesday storm looked epic for us too at this point. Now... not so much anymore. Exactly- Very concerned with the North track bias going into Friday's storm. Wont matter much if the cold is in place and the storm track is North....How many times have we seen back to back storms track the same...I really need to move- I can't take this.... |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 6, 2024 16:47:41 GMT -6
Ok, ya. Big difference! Whoops, ok. I'm still learning Pivotal site. I see the positive snow depth change feature. I only seen the snow depth option. Until I clicked regional. Instead of local STL map. |
|
