Chris's Corner - Record for Latest First Flakes May Fall

Call me crazy but I’m all in for next Friday’s storm….. great track , tons of moisture , artic air and we should have a solid snow pack to the north …..

It appears to me that th 850 on the GEFS has pushed slightly NW further than the EPS mean. I am not pessimistic but guarded.

There was always a little system forecast to move thru tonight. Won't be much of anything.

mping reports of snow coming in from Como to Jeff City. We had some quick hitting light snow, flurries/sprinkles in the forecast for tonight. Much less than last night. Kind of got lost between yesterday and Monday night/Tuesday.

00z nam remains way northwest.

It’s nice to see it is at least consistent lol

2nd half of the month looks very cold

0z GFS still shows quite the system Friday.

Very impressive. Tuesday looking more unlikely 

It is acceptable.

One storm at a time... and the next interesting system is still Monday night into Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The trends have cleared up considerably and the northward drift continues to look like the way to go. The strong winds having rounded the jet stream to the eastern side of the trough and that means this thing has to go north. The various GYB indicators all point to the heaviest snow band being well north of St. Louis with the 850/700/sfc/500mb systems all pointing in the same direction.

What looked like possibly a 1-2 punch of WAA (warm air advection) snow followed by wrap-around.... now looks to be mostly WAA driven snow. And that looks like a pretty quick hit Monday night. Only the far northwestern most communities stand a chance for a second hit with the wrap-around...and that's where the highest forecast totals will be.

If you just looked at the 850mb temps Monday evening, you would think there is no way it would be snow in that WAA surge. However, the air is quite dry in the low levels and the wetbulb 0 temps are several degrees below freezing...even south of I-70 for a time. So that being the case, it now looks like the best chance for accumulations will be Monday evening/night with the WAA wing of this potent mid-lattitude cyclone. Evaporative cooling will take rain quickly over to snow for much of eastern Missouri for several hours...before the WAA wins out and kicks most of the region over to rain. I expect the rain snow/line will progress north of I-70 and up to near Pike County MO over to near Greene County, IL. South of there, it goes to all rain after several hours of snow. The WAA snow could be intense enough to drop a couple quick inches somewhere near I-44 in MO and I-70 in Illinois...with possible 2-4 inches north and west from there. After that Monday night snowfall, the odds of getting anything meaningful go way down as the core of teh low moves overhead. This will focus the wrap-around into central and northeast Missouri...grazing only our northern and northwestern most counties. That's where I am going with 4-8 inches.

As the system pulls away, it still looks some mighty gusty winds will kick across the region along with somewhat colder air. Some snow showers are possible but meaningful accumulation in the wrap-around will be hard to comeby for most of our area.

This is my first stab at this storm. Obviously there is a good chance it will need to be tweaked, adjusted, etc. But this is a pretty good first shot I think.

That jet coupling at hour 144 on the GFS is mesmerizing.

Lets hope Friday works out since Tuesday storm was a bust. Fingers crossed!!!

I was just looking at that! Absolutely no words. Groundhog Day 2011 revenge 2.0. GEM looks more realistic.

My brother lives out in PA. I watched Brandon Copic pass by his area going through Carlisle PA. I texted my brother, he got around 8 inches of snow.