Chris's Corner - Record for Latest First Flakes May Fall

Does look like cutters as some have said with the high pressure position.

I could be wrong, but if memory serves, once they go north they rarely come back south.

With respect to the late week storm... a lot hinges on how much cold air the midweek front pushes south... which is directly tied to the strength of the high pressure that follows it. There is plenty of time to watch and worry about all that... after we settle things with the early week storm.

It would be unusual for two potent storms to follow up on top of each other and follow the same track.

There is acutally an old forecast rule of thumb called "rule of threes" which basically says that during a string of storms, each one should go further south than the preceeding storm because the frontal zone it develops on gets pushed further south each time.

I keep that in the back of my head, but don't always use it because in practice I've found it is not always true. Although, like many rules of thumb there is some truth to it. I've seen it work best along the east coast... but in the midwest it is less reliable.

Oh well looks like Friday going to be another miss. Crazy than the artic plunge but with no snow.

989 low right over stl. Good times. Th I s week could be the worst weather week. Most depressing

This is going to be so frustrating 😫 😤 but,we will all be back for the ride..as painful as it might be it's like the car crash on the freeway..you gotta look even if it's 👎 at least it's just weather..not worse. But I will keep my hopes alive!

It is important to point out that ensembles are showing a noisier and more chaotic evolution for storm #2 so we expect larger and more frequent jumps in the track of the system than what we are seeing with storm #1. Could it be early indication that storm #2 will eventually go north? Maybe. But I would not bank on that at this point.

Is there still a chance this could move just abit more south enough to get a couple of inches more?

The 12Z EPS took a significant jump north with the 850 mb low track with storm #2. It is now north of St. Louis. This is obviously an unfavorable track for the metro area. But again...we're seeing noisier outputs from models with this storm so I would not discount the potential for significant snow with this storm yet.

Don’t worry, the euro has another storm at D9/10 lol

This one has snow and temps in the single digits while it falls.

What could go wrong?

Not exactly local weather, but the early week system looks to pose a significant severe threat along the gulf coast

SPC already has issued an enhanced for tomorrow and just updated day 3 to enhanced

www.tiktok.com/t/ZT84tYsfM/

Weren't we just talking about explosions interrupting tornado genesis?

I think the models are underrating the arctic airmass for storm #2 I think it will be mostly snow for the immediate metro. GFS is even further south than we need.