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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2024 10:25:54 GMT -6
Maybe the bright side with no snow cover in the metro would be not getting below zero. As its harder to achieve with nare ground Also makes it easier for pipes to burst and freeze with no insulation. Having no snow-covered with bitter air is not good news |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2024 10:28:11 GMT -6
Thats true Snowman I forget about the insulating factor of snow.
Sheesh we are in the worst case scenario for winter weather
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Jan 10, 2024 10:28:44 GMT -6
P.A.I.N.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 10, 2024 10:39:21 GMT -6
Focusing on a different aspect of weather for the first time in several days I have sunshine.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 10:58:56 GMT -6
Seems like Sunshine for days and or weeks and nothing to track in the models is the preferred outcome for most on here if there isn't going to be any snow or exciting winter weather.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 11:00:08 GMT -6
Arctic air will be too strong on Sunday and Monday so a drier scenario is likely, but what does fall will be powdery stuff due to high ratios.
As mentioned it either comes together too late or too soon. Shows how hard it is to get a honest to Creator/God snowstorm/winter storm in St. Louis. The curse continues. Cold air too weak or slow, or too strong and it's suppression city as moisture is shoved south.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2024 11:01:24 GMT -6
BTW Summer 2024 looks like a 2012 redux if not worse thanks to a forecasted very strong central based La Nina developing and a Negative PNA pattern (colder waters off the West Coast) which helps pump a enormous ridge in the central US and Mississippi River Valley. Would be lots of 594-600+ DM ridging potential there. Needless to say it would be a bone dry pattern not good for the farmers. Weve seen La Ninas along with negative PNAs before without any 2012 temp extreme. I think you need to dig deeper into analogues before replaying your annual midwinter/middle of an active pattern summer outlook so freely. What are you seeing that you havent discussed to make you think 2024 is a 2012 redux? |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2024 11:02:37 GMT -6
Yes, I would prefer sunny and warm weather over the continuous dissappintments. One thing I will say is at least it has been interesting in terms of very low barometric pressure and strong wound up cyclones and not sheared messes.
Unfortunately we are the fine line in our area as always.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2024 11:05:52 GMT -6
UKmet is nice for Sunday
2-4" area wide and upwards of 6" south.
Dew points are looking better as well. I was a bit concerned majority would be eaten up. Will be very high ratio fluff.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 10, 2024 11:05:55 GMT -6
All the other storms have trended south on the models only to come back north… Watch this one stay south lol
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 11:08:04 GMT -6
BTW Summer 2024 looks like a 2012 redux if not worse thanks to a forecasted very strong central based La Nina developing and a Negative PNA pattern (colder waters off the West Coast) which helps pump a enormous ridge in the central US and Mississippi River Valley. Would be lots of 594-600+ DM ridging potential there. Needless to say it would be a bone dry pattern not good for the farmers. Weve seen La Ninas along with negative PNAs before without any 2012 temp extreme. I think you need to dig deeper into analogues before replaying your annual midwinter/middle of an active pattern summer outlook so freely. What are you seeing that you havent discussed to make you think 2024 is a 2012 redux? Just going with what the Ensemble climate outlooks say like the CFS/Candian/NMME and Euro seasonals say and using the assumed positions based on sea surface temp anomalies. Colder water tends to attract troughing, and warmer ridging. Follow the pattern a trough would be favored in the west coast into the Rockies and a ridge out in the central US to the Appalachians with us in the middle of said warm bubble. Of course things not predicted that far out like MJOs and NAO/AO to name a few are unpredictable at that range but the oceans are vast and the biggest climate driver of the planet, so usually but not always the atmosphere is going to respond to temp anomalies in the ocean especially if extreme or large in size. Sometimes it's right, sometimes wrong. Also can't help that with Climate change and what has transpired over the last decade or so, is that those trends will continue. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2024 11:12:35 GMT -6
Maybe just me but some of the hi res short term models at the end of their runs seem to be speeding up the cold air slightly for friday.
Such as the FV3.
Am I wrong, or is that noticeable.
Im sure I am completely wrong but I am looking for that glimmer of hope.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 11:14:28 GMT -6
Last 8 days of January thaw solidly visible on the GFS at the end of it's run. Looks like a solid blast furnace. Can't wait. Maybe we can hope for the warmest Feb 1st on record. Perhaps 80 degrees? No the GFS doesn't quite go that far, but just saying with our luck. Looking forward to mowing my lawn in February though! Hey if we're only going to get missed or token amounts might as well be warm so we can get storms and severe weather potential or heat... Trying reverse psychology here!
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 10, 2024 11:18:53 GMT -6
Last 8 days of January thaw solidly visible on the GFS at the end of it's run. Looks like a solid blast furnace. Can't wait. Maybe we can hope for the warmest Feb 1st on record. Perhaps 80 degrees? No the GFS doesn't quite go that far, but just saying with our luck. Looking forward to mowing my lawn in February though! Hey if we're only going to get missed or token amounts might as well be warm so we can get storms and severe weather potential or heat... Trying reverse psychology here! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2024 11:19:20 GMT -6
Maybe just me but some of the hi res short term models at the end of their runs seem to be speeding up the cold air slightly for friday. Such as the FV3. Am I wrong, or is that noticeable. Im sure I am completely wrong but I am looking for that glimmer of hope. Something like that is certainly possible. It wouldn’t take much snow to make things a mess Friday with the winds and rapidly dropping temps. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 10, 2024 11:20:46 GMT -6
Last night's 0z run had Ice/Snow up till hour 384..1040 HP..pushing in from North..fwiw..just saying..but reverse psychology works..whatever gets us Snow!!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2024 11:25:22 GMT -6
Fridays system is looking like another one of these systems that pulls up so much warm air ahead of it, even the deformation zone will be contaminated with rain.
BRTN your gut reaction on this pattern was 100% right
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2024 11:48:29 GMT -6
Good morning all...
I'm approaching Friday as "low QPF-high impact" event because of the timing.
I'm not seeing a lot of accumulation, but I do expect a burst of snow as the cold air blasts into the wraparound from the west. Even an hour of modest snowfall with crashing temperatures...accompanied by 40-50 mph winds and followed by waves of snow showers/bursts and flurries...all happening leading up to and through the Friday evening rush will lead to a potentially higher impact event than you might expect. Honestly, it may be about the same kind/amount of snow that fell yesterday afternoon and evening...except with much colder air! Add in the friday rush hour and you have trouble brewing. Probably best to focus more on the impact and not amounts at this point... somebody may see 1-2 inches of snow on the back side if the cold air arrives fast enough... but more importantly will be the bitter winds and flash freeze conditions that should develop. Plus, road crews will not be able to pre-treat because of the rain and by the time the changeover hits, many cars will be on the roads making it tough for salt trucks to get on the roads and move around quickly. This is a recipe for a bad evening drive Friday.
As for Sunday... I don't want to violate my one storm at a time rule... but you can't look past it either because it falls SO closely behind the Friday storm.
Historically these types of system get nudged further south by the building high pressure...so restricting the chance of accumulating snow to southern Missouri is a good call. I'd say I-70 and the Missouri River south....north of there I would expect not much of anything. Folks from Rolla to Farmington to Perryville and points south will be the winners... but I could see several inches all the way up to the STL metro with a quick drop off north from there. Those are just my first thoughts.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 10, 2024 11:53:23 GMT -6
All the other storms have trended south on the models only to come back north… Watch this one stay south lol I was going to post this as well. From what everyone is saying about Sunday. But our luck it won't come north this time. Like you just said. Because now the artic air moves in. Just in time.... When last couple of storms we had to deal with warm air. And storms bringing their own cold air. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 10, 2024 11:57:20 GMT -6
Ultimately, the issue is with these last storms is the lack of arctic interaction either before or after.
However, we do have some positives.
1. Cold is coming and as it looks to relax some a week from now, a storm is forecast.
2. We have wound up cyclones.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2024 12:11:06 GMT -6
Euro track is not too bad, just need it a bit colder
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2024 12:14:03 GMT -6
The euro tries to swing the deformation zone right up 44 Friday afternoon
That’s also what some hi res guidance is suggesting
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 12:18:13 GMT -6
Weve seen La Ninas along with negative PNAs before without any 2012 temp extreme. I think you need to dig deeper into analogues before replaying your annual midwinter/middle of an active pattern summer outlook so freely. What are you seeing that you havent discussed to make you think 2024 is a 2012 redux? Just going with what the Ensemble climate outlooks say like the CFS/Candian/NMME and Euro seasonals say and using the assumed positions based on sea surface temp anomalies. Colder water tends to attract troughing, and warmer ridging. Follow the pattern a trough would be favored in the west coast into the Rockies and a ridge out in the central US to the Appalachians with us in the middle of said warm bubble. Of course things not predicted that far out like MJOs and NAO/AO to name a few are unpredictable at that range but the oceans are vast and the biggest climate driver of the planet, so usually but not always the atmosphere is going to respond to temp anomalies in the ocean especially if extreme or large in size. Sometimes it's right, sometimes wrong. Also can't help that with Climate change and what has transpired over the last decade or so, is that those trends will continue. But you say the same thing every winter... maybe mix it up once in awhile, because you are rarely correct. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2024 12:24:02 GMT -6
I for one, welcome the blast furnace later this month. Hopefully we can open the pools up.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2024 12:32:17 GMT -6
euro basically nothing here sunday evening. dusting.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2024 13:10:50 GMT -6
Well if you squint hard enough the EPS did shift SE for Friday
Not much but enough to notice
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 10, 2024 13:20:17 GMT -6
My summer prediction: schools will close in late May, it will be warmer than now, and I'll go on at least one vacation with family.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2024 13:22:00 GMT -6
My summer prediction: schools will close in late May, it will be warmer than now, and I'll go on at least one vacation with family. Schools are starting to close due to it being windy outside. Have you accounted for potential makeup days? |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 10, 2024 14:15:20 GMT -6
My summer prediction: schools will close in late May, it will be warmer than now, and I'll go on at least one vacation with family. Schools are starting to close due to it being windy outside. Have you accounted for potential makeup days? Sometimes for being rainy as well. I wonder if they have considered that sunny days can result in sunburns. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 14:17:40 GMT -6
18Z NAM pulling more and more north by the run. Looks like even Chicago and Quincy won't get much snow either, so at least we're not the only ones. Might be getting close to some marginal severe risk southeast of I-44/I-70 with that run. Even some Hodographs showing some sickles.
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