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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 14:21:47 GMT -6
Low pressure over Missouri is replaced by another stronger low forming over the Bootheel as the north/central Missouri low which was the primary gets absorbed. Interesting.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 14:30:08 GMT -6
RAP 15Z extended run seeing 60mph+ gusts on the Illinois side with widespread 45-55mph gusts for the rest of the area Friday around midday.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 14:40:18 GMT -6
Low pressure over Missouri is replaced by another stronger low forming over the Bootheel as the north/central Missouri low which was the primary gets absorbed. Interesting. All the modela have been showing it like that for days. Nam is just too far north with the lead wave. Other short term guidance is having the same problem. They can’t handle the energy transfer or multi low setups at all. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2024 14:43:23 GMT -6
15z RAP... book it!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2024 14:43:57 GMT -6
RAP 15Z extended run seeing 60mph+ gusts on the Illinois side with widespread 45-55mph gusts for the rest of the area Friday around midday. You left out 2-3 inches of snow along and north of I-44 |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2024 14:47:51 GMT -6
18z HRRR extended looks similiar to 15z RAP.
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 10, 2024 14:51:30 GMT -6
Sooooo....if those verify.....could we be looking at a blizzard warning somewhere in the area? Seems like we talk about it occasionally and it is the sustained lack of visibility that is the issue....3 hours of reduced visibility I think.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 14:54:58 GMT -6
18z HRRR extended looks similiar to 15z RAP. In my opinion, they both performed horribly at this range for the last storm and generally are too far north with everything |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2024 14:55:21 GMT -6
no
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2024 15:11:40 GMT -6
Sooooo....if those verify.....could we be looking at a blizzard warning somewhere in the area? Seems like we talk about it occasionally and it is the sustained lack of visibility that is the issue....3 hours of reduced visibility I think. As long as fish is MIC at LSX, I doubt very much you will EVER see another blizzard warning issued for metro STL. it is almost impossible to verify the criteria. Away from the metro, maybe. For this storm, I dont see it happening. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 15:18:47 GMT -6
I have seen storms similar like this... and it would not surprise me to see the cold air collapse quicker like the RAP and HRRR are showing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2024 15:21:21 GMT -6
After what happened in 2011, I don’t blame LSX for never issuing another blizzard warning for metro STL
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2024 15:23:09 GMT -6
Off topic: but is anyone else dealing with the annoying Fresh Tyme ads that are causing the pivotal weather site to be useless each time you click? It’s happening in Google Chrome on my Dell and started happening in Safari on my iPhone.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2024 15:23:16 GMT -6
I forgot to say thank you for all the kind thoughts and prayers from you all when I lost my mom. So, thank you very much, it does help to hear kind words at a bad time.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2024 15:25:44 GMT -6
Off topic: but is anyone else dealing with the annoying Fresh Tyme ads that are causing the pivotal weather site to be useless each time you click? It’s happening in Google Chrome on my Dell and started happening in Safari on my iPhone. Download an ad blocker. For Chrome I’d recommend Ublock Although google might be cracking down on adblockers soon For safari iOS: Adguard |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2024 15:27:02 GMT -6
18z ICON also agrees with the RAP and HRRR Friday afternoon
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 15:27:11 GMT -6
RAP gets a nice negative tilt... helps stack the system quicker  |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 10, 2024 15:45:00 GMT -6
18z ICON also agrees with the RAP and HRRR Friday afternoon |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 10, 2024 15:47:16 GMT -6
18z ICON also agrees with the RAP and HRRR Friday afternoon Really likes Sunday too! |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 10, 2024 15:47:46 GMT -6
Icon..likes Sunday as well!!
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 10, 2024 15:50:05 GMT -6
Sooooo....if those verify.....could we be looking at a blizzard warning somewhere in the area? Seems like we talk about it occasionally and it is the sustained lack of visibility that is the issue....3 hours of reduced visibility I think. As long as fish is MIC at LSX, I doubt very much you will EVER see another blizzard warning issued for metro STL. it is almost impossible to verify the criteria. Away from the metro, maybe. For this storm, I dont see it happening. Haven't seen him on here in a long while. I assume sleetmegedon burned him pretty bad. Id be interested in the top 3 forecast busts some of the top professionals in the area would recall for their careers. Severe weather or winter weather. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 10, 2024 15:51:04 GMT -6
Icon..likes Sunday as well!! I think I figured out why it was posting weird. Hopefully all fixed..sorry for any repeats! Appreciate your patience with this old bird..lol |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 16:00:37 GMT -6
18Z GFS still playing the south of the area game for Sunday's system.
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 10, 2024 16:03:02 GMT -6
Are we buying that northern edge of precip for Sunday? Meaning, northern side cutoff will likely be sharper and get eaten up. Digital snow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2024 16:07:11 GMT -6
As long as fish is MIC at LSX, I doubt very much you will EVER see another blizzard warning issued for metro STL. it is almost impossible to verify the criteria. Away from the metro, maybe. For this storm, I dont see it happening. Haven't seen him on here in a long while. I assume sleetmegedon burned him pretty bad. Id be interested in the top 3 forecast busts some of the top professionals in the area would recall for their careers. Severe weather or winter weather. The storm in 2003(?) that was forecast to be a 4-6" storm and ended up being flurries due to the persistent DAM ranks up there for me. I remember being off school and laughing about how little snow there was. Sleetmageddon was the ultimate slap in the face though...18-22" forecast with a blizzard warning and we got a few inches of sleet. Waking up to that sound almost made me physically sick. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2024 16:07:57 GMT -6
Are we buying that northern edge of precip for Sunday? Meaning, northern side cutoff will likely be sharper and get eaten up. Digital snow. You guys are in a great spot for Sunday's system, IMO...MBY notsomuch |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 10, 2024 16:12:36 GMT -6
21Z RAP is just a little bit different than the 15Z...
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 10, 2024 16:15:57 GMT -6
18Z ICON! If this actually verified and we could squeeze 5-6" of snow out of Fri-Sat/Sun-Mon I'd be a happy camper. All I want is enough snow to go sledding with my son.  |
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228
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Post by steve on Jan 10, 2024 16:42:33 GMT -6
21Z RAP is just a little bit different than the 15Z... How so? |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 10, 2024 16:54:54 GMT -6
Next
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