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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 10, 2024 17:09:12 GMT -6
21Z RAP is just a little bit different than the 15Z... How so? Weaker, faster, more north, less negative tilt resulting in a much briefer change over to snow for the immediate Metro than 15Z |
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Jan 10, 2024 17:17:58 GMT -6
Weaker, faster, more north, less negative tilt resulting in a much briefer change over to snow for the immediate Metro than 15Z Gotcha, thanks |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 10, 2024 17:49:07 GMT -6
In just a few days, the GFS went from 20+ inches of snow for here down to a couple… Our winters have become insufferable……
I have five grandkids, the oldest being nine and the poor kids don’t really even know what it’s like to play in the snow
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2024 18:07:47 GMT -6
As long as fish is MIC at LSX, I doubt very much you will EVER see another blizzard warning issued for metro STL. it is almost impossible to verify the criteria. Away from the metro, maybe. For this storm, I dont see it happening. Haven't seen him on here in a long while. I assume sleetmegedon burned him pretty bad. Id be interested in the top 3 forecast busts some of the top professionals in the area would recall for their careers. Severe weather or winter weather. He has bigger fish (no-pun) to fry as the boss of STL Weather! Biggest bust in my life is without a doubt, the blizzard of 1982! 2-4 became 24! I've never seen anything like before and hope we don't ever again. The next biggest bust might have been in the early 2000s... I can't remember the date... but Fred Glass wrote a paper on it. Everyone forecast 6-10 for a southeastward moving "super clipper" but the dry air won and we got next to nothing....anywhere. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2024 18:12:19 GMT -6
That must be the storm I was talking about, Chris...I remember it well. There was a persistent donut hole on radar through the whole event.
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Post by birddog on Jan 10, 2024 18:24:42 GMT -6
Does the drought that we have been in for the last year having any effect on these weather systems? I know it affects rain chances in the summer.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2024 18:36:15 GMT -6
That must be the storm I was talking about, Chris...I remember it well. There was a persistent donut hole on radar through the whole event. Yup I remember that one too. I can still see the weather channel radar on the 8’s as the snow kept trying to develop out near KC but couldn’t overcome the dry air. Also there was a southern storm around 2005ish that even the WAA got eaten up and the back side never materialized. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 10, 2024 18:36:37 GMT -6
Even though the end of that 15z rap the low is in Illinois but, looking back the record in January of '75 is a barometric pressure of 28.93 or 979.68 mb. 972 or 29.7 on the barometer would be a bruiser. It's like the lowest I came up with and it's close, I guess technically it might be over Illinois, is 981 which is still nothing to sneeze at. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2024 18:38:45 GMT -6
Haven't seen him on here in a long while. I assume sleetmegedon burned him pretty bad. Id be interested in the top 3 forecast busts some of the top professionals in the area would recall for their careers. Severe weather or winter weather. He has bigger fish (no-pun) to fry as the boss of STL Weather! Biggest bust in my life is without a doubt, the blizzard of 1982! 2-4 became 24! I've never seen anything like before and hope we don't ever again. The next biggest bust might have been in the early 2000s... I can't remember the date... but Fred Glass wrote a paper on it. Everyone forecast 6-10 for a southeastward moving "super clipper" but the dry air won and we got next to nothing....anywhere. I remember that storm well - and yes, BRTN, same storm. Local TV Mets were trying to will the donut hole to close. It was not great. Chris - is the write up avail on the internets? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2024 19:27:35 GMT -6
NWS is forecasting gusts to 55mph Friday evening. Even if we don't get much snow, this will be an impressive storm to watch unfold and could still cause power outages without the snow.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 10, 2024 19:51:01 GMT -6
NWS is forecasting gusts to 55mph Friday evening. Even if we don't get much snow, this will be an impressive storm to watch unfold and could still cause power outages without the snow. Is it me or does the 0z HRRR drop 3-4 inches late Friday aftn?? |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:02:15 GMT -6
It's you. It's late morning... early afternoon
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:11:37 GMT -6
and 50+ winds while it's snowing
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2024 20:11:38 GMT -6
Id trends like the Hrrr hold like that its going to be a mess on thr roads, and with the winds could pose possible a winterstorm warning due to near blizzard conditions, not necessarily the 5 inch threshhold but due to the impacts.
In my opinion im sure I am completely wrong.
But I watch it due to being in the snow business
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 20:17:36 GMT -6
Thing's gonna look like a flipping hurricane on land. HRRR even kinda forms an 'eye' like feature and 'eyewall' as it passes into eastern Illinois and Indiana. Impressive. Also insane rain before a 2-3 hour kick over to heavy wet snow with winds up to 45-55mph. That's about the best we can hope for. At least it's not boring.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:18:33 GMT -6
If that were the scenario for 2-3 hours they would have to issue blizzard warnings. It's not winter storm criteria. That would be as high as impact it gets around here.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 10, 2024 20:24:53 GMT -6
Comparing 0z to 18z NAM at 500mb vort charts it sure looks like the 0z is a bit further south and east at comparable times. Also, the 0z looks to be neutral while the 18z is already negative at 1/12/21z. Hopefully a positive sign.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2024 20:25:29 GMT -6
If that were the scenario for 2-3 hours they would have to issue blizzard warnings. It's not winter storm criteria. That would be as high as impact it gets around here. I think because of the duration... something like that may get a snow squall warning.... mainly because I'm not sure visibility criteria would be met...at least in the metro. Rural...possible. |
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 10, 2024 20:28:08 GMT -6
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 10, 2024 20:29:49 GMT -6
If that were the scenario for 2-3 hours they would have to issue blizzard warnings. It's not winter storm criteria. That would be as high as impact it gets around here. I think because of the duration... something like that may get a snow squall warning.... mainly because I'm not sure visibility criteria would be met...at least in the metro. Rural...possible. Aren't squall warnings relatively micro scale? Kinda like the warnings put out for that dust storm in the spring? |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:34:30 GMT -6
NAMs are a tick late
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2024 20:34:53 GMT -6
I think because of the duration... something like that may get a snow squall warning.... mainly because I'm not sure visibility criteria would be met...at least in the metro. Rural...possible. Aren't squall warnings relatively micro scale? Kinda like the warnings put out for that dust storm in the spring? Yeah... now that I think about it, that's probably not the right product for this either. With 50 mph winds, could go with high wind warning. Could do a winter weather advisory... but that doesn't sound bad enough to capture winds. If they were confident on at least some snow along with the winds... I think I would go with a short duration winter storm warning... for combo of wind, cold and some snow. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 10, 2024 20:38:24 GMT -6
Why does the model 'jump' the red 'L' around so much. At hr 39 we have a 988 L in NW Ark. 3 hrs later we have a 984 L north of STL. WTH
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:38:50 GMT -6
That would paralyze traffic... I'd do the blizzard warning
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 20:41:12 GMT -6
Aren't squall warnings relatively micro scale? Kinda like the warnings put out for that dust storm in the spring? Yeah... now that I think about it, that's probably not the right product for this either. With 50 mph winds, could go with high wind warning. Could do a winter weather advisory... but that doesn't sound bad enough to capture winds. If they were confident on at least some snow along with the winds... I think I would go with a short duration winter storm warning... for combo of wind, cold and some snow. High Wind Warning is non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 55mph or greater I believe. Probably just looking at a high-end Wind Advisory with a short fuse Winter Weather Advisory if the snow pans out and if nothing else for the flash freezing as the cold air plunges in and the potential for black ice as well as what snow does fall if any. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:42:13 GMT -6
Why does the model 'jump' the red 'L' around so much. At hr 39 we have a 988 L in NW Ark. 3 hrs later we have a 984 L north of STL. WTH I'm guessing that as it goes negative, it's deepening and redeveloping the low north |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 20:43:10 GMT -6
South of I-44 and along and east of I-55 is where the flash freezing could be the biggest issue due to expected rainfall amounts and puddling that will exist on bridges, overpasses, and roadways in general. And as mentioned due to the risk of heavy rainfall there is no 'pre-treating'. North and west of there while there will be some rain, it ends sooner and is overall looking to be lighter and therefore might dry faster as the winds and cold dry air does it's thing. Gonna take longer out east.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:43:40 GMT -6
Yeah... now that I think about it, that's probably not the right product for this either. With 50 mph winds, could go with high wind warning. Could do a winter weather advisory... but that doesn't sound bad enough to capture winds. If they were confident on at least some snow along with the winds... I think I would go with a short duration winter storm warning... for combo of wind, cold and some snow. High Wind Warning is non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 55mph or greater I believe. Probably just looking at a high-end Wind Advisory with a short fuse Winter Weather Advisory if the snow pans out and if nothing else for the flash freezing as the cold air plunges in and the potential for black ice as well as what snow does fall if any. Have you read any of the posts prior? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2024 20:53:35 GMT -6
Well, the NBM has about an inch in the metro on the 01z run Slightly better than the 19z run Its something, I guess. Especially combined with 50+ mph winds  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 20:54:11 GMT -6
Lol, the FV3 tonight is what I was picturing in my head, while the 00z 3k nam is what I’m going to get.
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