Chris's Corner - Welcome to the Warmest Start Ever to Feb!

We had a low of 27 this morning….

Made it down to 24.1° at 5:59. Already back up to 25.9°

I have a question for the group. I want to put down grass seed. I am afraid of these freezing nights. Should I wait or should it be okay to put the seed down?

Thank you!  I will get on it!  I just have some spots where I am having a hell of a time getting grass to grow.

If your craving snow, may want to head up to MN

Looks like they are going to make up for some lost ground in the snowfall department

Update on sister: after two weeks of adjusting meds, being checked for blood clots, checking for cellulitis and all kinds of stuff we are finally seeing improvement. This is tough. Please keep those prayers coming.

Likely an amateurish question, but it seems winds/sustained winds have been fairly consistent over the last couple weeks. Wondering if some sort of dominating condition is responsible… Thanks!

Typical spring patterns. Jet Stream is still quite close and the differential of the stronger heating of the Earth from the sun and colder airmasses aloft mixing. Happens pretty much every year and winds down as April and especially May approaches and Summer nears.

I think there is an "official" date for the growing season to start, even though in some years, especially recently, the growing season has already started.

I guess I should have asked here first before ordering a new console for the Davis on the Swingset.

I'm still tracking the ensemble forecasts which I'll only post every 5 days until we get into their skillful range. Using the CPC methodology all we can really say is that there are "equal chances" of cloud coverage being above or below the climatological average. That is to say there is no obvious indication of skill above that of the climatological average. That's not unusual for our area since global circulation patterns like those induced by the ENSO phases have a smaller effect on us as opposed to other regions in the country. We might not be able to confidently assess the cloud forecast until we're only a couple of days away if we're lucky. Clouds are notoriously difficult to predict. It's one of the least skillful forecast parameters there is.

The CPC is saying there is a 55-60% of having above normal temperatures and "equal chances" of having above/below normal precipitation in their 3-4 week forecast. But again this isn't very helpful since the correlation between clouds and precipitation/temperature is complex. One thing we do have going for us is the well known nocturnal bias in precipitation. It's not uncommon for that precipitation to wane as the LLJ slows down with cloud debris burning off by the afternoon hours.

Anyone have a general idea of when FROPA will occur today? I need to mow but can't start until about 2pm.

Looks like we will have a forced squall line move across the area Monday afternoon/evening.

Instability is almost non existent so the severe threat is very low.

The LLJ will be cranking so could have a few strong wing gust try to mix down